Your game day thread, bluegrass edition

Okay, as I’ve already said, both teams want to run the ball today, but for different reasons.

Georgia wants to run the ball as a means to an end, a balanced offense with meaningful shots off of play action.  Kentucky wants to run the ball because Ray Davis is their best player.  To the extent that either can interfere with those goals, it’s going to impact the other’s offensive strategy.  Auburn was a good example of how Georgia’s offense isn’t as effective without the running threat that makes play action go.  On the other side, if Davis’ yards per carry are reduced to something less otherworldly, I have my doubts Leary is ready to pick up the slack throwing the ball on the Georgia secondary.

That’s the obvious part.  The murky part is trying to figure out which Georgia team plans on showing up tonight.  I’ve given up trying to get a handle on that.  I honestly thought we’d see a team ready to play its first conference road game last Saturday.  Instead, we were treated to another slowish start, countered by their typical resiliency, which, given their surroundings, was impressive.  It all added up to a closer than we like victory, but a win nevertheless.

I’d like to think they go in tonight in a better frame of mind than last week.  Auburn, it feels like, was taken a little too lightly after their debacle of a showing in College Station.  That won’t be the case with this Kentucky team coming off a steamrolling of Florida.  But who the hell knows if that’s really going to make a difference?  I sure don’t.  Oh, and turnover margin?  Please, don’t get me started.

True, the Dawgs have more talent.  Also true, they’ll be better able to weather their running game being limited than will Kentucky.  That’s probably the main reason I expect them to come out on top tonight.  But I’ve given up expecting this team to cover the point spread.  The next time they do so will be the first time this season.  (Besides, I still remember UK getting that back door cover the last time they came to town.)

This is probably coming off a little more negatively than I intend.  It’s not that I have my doubts about this team’s ability to win.  It’s just that it’s frustrating to see how they go about their business at times.  Trust me, I’ll be happy with any kind of win against the ‘Cats.  It’s also worth noting that such a win puts Georgia in a pretty attractive place in the division, especially if Missouri loses to LSU today.  We’ll see how it goes.

Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.

Your 10/7 (ND) game day post

Here’s what we have to look forward to today:

Kind of a strange day, in that it starts out with a bang, slows thereafter, and then fades away late.  Anyway, here’s what I’ll be watching:

• Oklahoma vs. Texas.  One of two early games worth keeping an eye on, both unfortunately on at the same time.  Guess we’ll see if the Longhorns are really back.
• LSU at Missouri.  Hey, at the beginning of the season, who would have guessed the home team would be the higher ranked set of Tigers in this game?
• Alabama at Texas A&M.  If the Tide win this one, it’s hard to see how they’re not destined for Atlanta.
• Arkansas at Ole Miss.  I have the feeling this one ain’t gonna be pretty for the Hogs.
• Notre Dame at Louisville.  Hey, Louisville’s ranked.  This one could get a little weird.

What will you be watching?

Make ’em pay

Interesting comment from ESPN’s Week 6 buzz column ($$):

… Auburn was a big moment for him, as he avoided a sack but was pressured by Jalen McLeod and others and held his ground. A defensive coordinator who faced Georgia told me the goal was to try to limit the Bulldogs’ screen game and make Beck work from the pocket. “He stood in there and delivered the ball,” the coach said. “It’s tough to get to him in protection, especially with four [rushers]. They sit there and lock you out.”  [Emphasis added.]

I don’t think it’s any big secret that Georgia’s had little success throwing the tunnel screen so far this season.  But the more Beck demonstrates the extent of his comfort running the playbook, the more the screen game will open up as defenses will be forced to respect his role in the offense.

One man band

Marc Weiszer makes a good point.  Even with Ray Davis’ monster game against Florida, and even with Davis leading the SEC (and being 5th nationally) in yards per carry, Kentucky is only fifth in the conference in rushing yards.

The reason for that isn’t that the ‘Cats are bad at it — their yards per carry average (6.45) is the best in the SEC — but because they don’t run the ball all that much.  In fact, they’re last in the conference in rushing attempts, and by a pretty decent margin.  They average a little more than 26 runs per game.

They actually throw the ball a little more than they run it.  So this isn’t exactly your prototypical Stoops offense.

In total, they average 55 plays a game, which, again, is dead last in the conference.  They’ve got to be incredibly efficient, then, when they have the ball.  That’s why Davis is such a huge deal for them.  He’s what makes their engine run; he’s the main reason they’re 3rd in offensive ypp in the SEC.

Slow him down and UK gets out of their comfort zone.  He’s Job One for the Georgia defense today.

“Nobody was up for $30 million.”

So, apparently, the (once upon a time) Pac-12’s $50 million counter-offer to Mickey was a real thing.  Essentially the school presidents were swayed by what turned out to be inflated numbers in the Big Ten broadcast deal and by Kliavkoff’s overly optimisitic news as to how the negotiations were going to launch that ridiculous number, although, in their defense, they never intended for it to be a take it or leave it counter.

Per Utah president Taylor Randall:

“The Pac-12 Presidents and Chancellors worked collectively in pursuit of a new media rights agreement. Though an offer was made by one of our media partners, we elected to take the rights to market to get the best deal. Throughout the process, many of the CEOs — including myself — pushed to ensure that the conference was aggressive to secure the very best agreement we could. Several conference schools retained their own consultants to value the league, which resulted in a range of estimations. It is my understanding that any mention of $50 million, which was higher than any valuation, was only as a potential starting point in negotiations to help get us to the estimated true value.”

Basically, these guys didn’t have a clue as to what they were doing.  “Take the rights to market to get the best deal”?  Fellas, Mickey isn’t an appraiser and you folks had no idea how the rights market was about to implode.  The conference had consultants and the schools had their own consultants?  No wonder they couldn’t grasp what the rights were worth.  There were too many people bending their ears.

Toss in a little judicious finger pointing…

One Pac-12 president told me Kliavkoff and Sports Media Advisors completely misplayed the $50 million counteroffer: “The instructions were to negotiate. This wasn’t supposed to be a ‘take your ball and go home’ scenario.”

… and you’ve got a case study they ought to be teaching in business schools for years.  Real geniuses, these people.

Get angry!

Bill Connelly’s ($$) got a new moniker for the Georgia team… at least the one we keep waiting to emerge this season.

Granted, Georgia is at its “65-7 in the national championship game” best when it feels disrespected, and Smart probably enjoys that doubt levels are rising. It will surprise no one if or when the Angry Dawgs make an appearance.

“Angry Dawgs”!  I like it.

Well, based on this chart, there’s one thing those Angry Dawgs had better do today, and that’s tackle Ray Davis to the ground when they get their hands on him, because…

… the dude doesn’t go down easily.

And, to get back to a point I raised yesterday, Ray’s not likely to get much help from UK’s passing game.

Davis has been dynamite, but transfer quarterback Devin Leary is completing just 58% of his passes — 50% in two conference games — and ranks 89th in Total QBR. And both of his leading receivers, Barion Brown and Tayvion Robinson, are banged up. If UK can’t control the line of scrimmage, there might not be any other path to points.

Can Georgia make Kentucky’s offense one-dimensional?  If they’re angry enough, sure.

Bloody Tuesday, baby

For Georgia’s players, Saturday begins on Tuesday.

𝐁𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐝𝐲 𝐓𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲 | Game 6 Trailer#GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/kJ4RCdHjRo

— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) October 6, 2023

The least you can do is get your ass out of bed this morning.  GATA, Dawgs!