Random Georgia-Missouri thoughts

This, that and the other…

• Plenty has been made of how it’s Georgia dealing with injuries this year, but don’t forget that the Dawgs were short-handed in Columbia, too, because of the suspensions on defense.  So this isn’t exactly a new experience for Georgia.
• Gary Danielson thinks Bobo will rely on the short passing game for first downs and not their running game for first downs.  I can certainly see a case for that, based on how poorly Georgia’s power formation did when the Vols stacked the box on third-and-short.  I don’t know why Georgia doesn’t throw more to a tight end when it’s faced with that situation.  (That worked in the South Carolina game.)
• The intangibles seem huge for this game.  Mizzou rolls in feeling confident with its 5-0 start, one that’s compiled against Sagarin’s #81 strength of schedule.  Georgia, meanwhile, comes in 4-1 against Sagarin’s second-rated strength of schedule.  There’s confidence from that, from the way Murray’s played and that it’s at home.  How much do the injuries unsettle that?
• If you’re puzzled why the spread opened the way it did, take a look at the chart that graces the beginning of Bill C.’s post analyzing the game.  Adjusted for schedule, Georgia ranks higher across the board in all of Football Outsiders‘ metrics.  Including defense, believe it or not.
• Speaking of Bill, I love this line:  “Gurley or no Gurley, Quayvon Hicks is a load. He’s also a “fullback,” whatever that is.”  I know he goes on to say that Missouri handled Vanderbilt’s power blocking last week, but Vandy doesn’t rely on old-fashioned I-formation football the way Georgia does.  On the other side, Georgia may not handle well what Missouri does on offense, but as least the defense has seen it before.  Who’s got the advantage?  Hell if I know.
• One more thing from Bill:  “…if the Dawgs tackle well and hold Mizzou to minimal gains on standard downs, the Tigers will be forced to continue to come up big on passing downs. That will be difficult to accomplish.”  For Georgia or Missouri?
• I have a feeling I’m gonna miss Jarvis Jones.
• The X-factor?  Special teams, of course.  How likely is it that we’ll see Georgia pull off a big play like Samuel’s stuff of the fake punt?  Um, don’t answer that.
• If I recall, last year Missouri was extremely aggressive on defense, attacking Georgia’s line with lots of blitzing.  It worked well until Bobo popped ’em with some well designed screens and slants.  It strikes me as a pretty good strategy this go ’round, at least until they can see whether the inexperienced offensive players can cope with having the timing of plays disrupted.

My gut is telling me right now that Georgia wins, but doesn’t cover.  What do y’all think?