“Georgia’s just different. …”

Rush Probst, on the coaching changes at Alabama and Georgia:

“No question Kirby makes more of an impact than Mark,” Propst explained. “Mark had grown tired of the bureaucracy of that was going on. … The fan base was very patient with Mark. They were a lot more patient than they would be at Alabama or Auburn. Georgia’s just different. …

“For Jeremy to go back to his home state to be a defensive coordinator is very important to him. Let me say this about Jeremy – and he won’t say this – but he wanted it to work at Georgia. He wanted to bring Georgia back to the heyday of the 80s. … When mama calls, it’s hard to say no.”

Say what you will about Probst personally, as a summary of what’s gone down, that’s fairly accurate.  Although the unanswered question is whether the conditions that wore on Richt have changed for Smart.

125 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football

125 responses to ““Georgia’s just different. …”

  1. Rick

    In what universe was UGA ‘patient’ with Richt?

    Has any program in college football history fired a coach winning 75% of his games in the long term (15 years), medium term (5 years) and short term (2 years)?

    If anything, we’ve been shown to have a historically impatient fanbase, and one that largely deserves what is coming.

    Like

    • Biggus Rickus

      Sigh.

      Like

      • dudemankind

        Here we go again. I guess he got tired of wearing out this argument on SB Nation Dawg Sports for a while and decided to come back to punish us again.

        Like

    • Auburn fired a head coach two years off winning a national championship, so, yeah, by that standard, I’d say we were patient. 😉

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      • Brandon

        That Auburn team also finished that year with an 0-8 conference record, 3-9 overall and lost to their two biggest rivals by a combined score of 87-0. I’m pretty sure had Richt done that at any point in his career he’d have been canned immediately too

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      • Rick

        The sad thing is that I agree with you that a coach fired coming off a 3-9 season, and an overall winning percentage light years worse than Richt (or even Donnan) is one of the better examples out there. Auburn fired a terrible coach that happened to have a national championship. We fired the greatest coach in history because he didn’t.

        Absolutely unprecedented. It’s that ridiculous article arguing for firing Osborne that you posted a while ago come true.

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    • A10Penny

      The one with no SEC championships in 10 years, no SEC East in the last 3 despite it being awful. The one with Willie Martinez, the squib kick, the timeout, and the pass on 1st and goal at the 4. The one with an OT victory against Ga Southern and a loss to UCF, The one with chronic undersigning, chronic fair catches, and 175# starting RBs.

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      • Rick

        Yep, all things that when assessed objectively, using simple mathematical principles that we use in every other field except sports, are totally expected in a 15 year career of the greatest coach in our history.

        You’re right, though, we fired him based on a list of dreary-sounding anecdotes. The problem is that if you aren’t Nick Saban, those anecdotes will pile up after 15 years.

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        • A10Penny

          Do you think that UGA underachieved, over-achieved or met expectations the last 10 years?

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          • Rick

            Overachieved relative to school history. Underachieved relative to the expectations we (including myself) had for Richt in 2005. But when you fire Richt, you don’t get another Richt. You get whatever you get, and every single coach hired in the SEC this millenium that didn’t already have a top 10 finish on his resume has been a failure compared Richt save one (Les Miles).

            Relative to the expectation we can reasonably have for the hire we just made, Richt exceeded expectations at every stage in his career.

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            • A10Penny

              “Overachieved relative to school history.” True, but that’s the past. Coaches should be evaluated on the present.

              “But when you fire Richt, you don’t get another Richt.” We may get better, or worse. Time will tell, but this statement isn’t the most objective one right now.

              “You get whatever you get, and every single coach hired in the SEC this millenium that didn’t already have a top 10 finish on his resume has been a failure compared Richt save one (Les Miles).” Coaches should be evaluated on what they achieve given their situation. CMR had advantages at UGA that Mullen, Freeze, Franklin and even Butch would kill for.

              “Relative to the expectation we can reasonably have for the hire we just made, Richt exceeded expectations at every stage in his career.” “Reasonable” is in the eye of the beholder. Given the talent UGA has had, a lot of reasonable people in this blog, disagree with you on that (as did powerful boosters as well as Morehead and McGarity.

              Like

              • Rick

                There certainly can be differences of opinion on what is an acceptable level of success. Regardless of talent, what matters is wins and losses, and anyone who requires the UGA coach to win 80% of his games was correct to argue for Richt’s termination. He would likely never win at that rate on a consistent basis.

                However, we can estimate how easy it is to find a coach that can win 80% of his games. It’s insanely difficult. The only examples in the SEC this century are a guy who already had a national title under his belt and a guy who had just won a BCS bowl at Utah to finish in the top 5.

                We hired a defensive coordinator. There hasn’t been a remotely successful hire of this type in the SEC since….well, Mark Richt. But hey, maybe lightning does strike the same place twice.

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                • do not resuscitate

                  I like to think that UGA fans, as a whole, are well aware of the winning percentage of the coach who we just let go. I don’t think the problem was that we weren’t winning enough, but more the way in which we were losing. It became very apparent in the last 5-6 years of Richt’s tenure that the blowout losses became inevitable, to the point where you could almost expect it against a quality opponent. If Richt had shown that he was capable of getting his team to be competitive game after game, and these types of loses stopped happening, he may still be coaching here. Yet he didn’t.

                  Like

                • A10Penny

                  We agree that 80% is a really high bar, especially considering we hired a DC with zero HC experience. The disappointing thing to me (given that CMR couldn’t get the team to consistently meet their potential) is that B-M settled hiring Kirby.

                  However, wins (or winning percentage) are not equal everywhere or historically. 75% wins isn’t that hard when you get to 50% just for showing up to the cupcake, Vandy and UK games. Furthermore, coaches like Mullen and Freeze can be more impressive than CMR despite lower winning percentages if they elevate their programs in the stronger West division.

                  So the 75% number is instructive, but not the end all, be all statistic.

                  Furthermore, I would take a lower winning percentage (for the sake of argument let’s say 70%) if it meant that we won the SEC every 3-4 years (and the program was still run with the class it was under CMR).

                  Next, we cannot easily estimate winning percentages of possible CMR replacements (especially those without track records). You can compare hires across all of Division I, or just the SEC, or just the East and you either wouldn’t have a good UGA-peer argument, or too small of a sample size. If you can show me a good analysis and/or prediction on this matter with statistical significance, I’d be surprised.

                  Finally, let’s use your 75% figure and look at UGA’s schedule. What do you think an average yearly record should be? Let’s say 4-2 as the floor. Throw in a 1-1 record against the West and 4-0 against the cupcakes/Tech. That’s 9-3 or 75%. Yes, we have the occasional Clemson and future ND games and occasional losses to Tech. Those can be offset by 2-0 years vs. the West and really, we should average 5-1 records in the East. IMO, a coach that elevates UGA (and there are plenty of coaches out there that elevate programs) will be able to average 9-3 or 75% easily.

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                • Rick

                  Look, the way you have constructed it sounds plausible, but look out there and judge empirically: how many programs are roughly on par with UGA in terms of resources relative to their conference peers? A dozen? Twenty? I see 5 others in the SEC alone.

                  Why can almost none of them win consistently at a 75% rate?

                  The reason is that you’ve cheated in small ways with your evaluation, but those small cheats add up. 4-0 against cupcakes including Tech – should we really expect to beat tech (2015 orange bowl winners) 100% of the time? And what about out of conference teams like Clemson that we routinely face? And what about bowl games, which should presumably match us against equivalently successful foes? And what about the SEC championship game?

                  Most importantly, what about when the team just isn’t very good? Every non-Saban team has down years every 5 years or so. To assume a ‘floor’ of .500 in conference for those teams is wildly optimistic.

                  That’s why very rarely see coaches consistently winning 75% of their games, and when you get a coach that does it, it is crazy to let him go unless you have backchanneled a homerun replacement. That is so clearly not the case here.

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                • A10Penny

                  I’ll continue the back and forth if you can tell me what the small cheats in your arguments are.

                  Like

                • Rick

                  The advantage of looking at things empirically is that it is not possible to cheat. However you choose the set of schools similar to UGA in terms of expected winning percentage, there is a a straightforward answer to what fraction of them actually win more than 75% of their games.

                  As far as I can tell, that number is very, very low. I am happy to be corrected.

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                • A10Penny

                  I need to see evidence of more critical thinking to continue…which would include the ability to recognize weaknesses in one’s own arguments. I haven’t read all your posts, but so far I haven’t seen you do anything except harp on the 75% figure, which is a 50% winning percentage against non-doormats.

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                • Rick

                  You don’t have to find the point compelling. I would welcome any criticism of my argument, in particular why this personnel move isn’t the worst that any AD has ever made. Has a coach with a comparable record ever been fired? That’s where the 75% win rate becomes significant. There are several example of excellent coaches who became worst and were terminated after exceptionally poor seasons, but I’ve never heard of a coach winning on that rate up until the very end and getting the axe.

                  Of course, it may be that no AD has ever made a mistake firing a coach.

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                • A10Penny

                  While you harp on what is not an unreasonable line of argument, I can easily point out a couple problems with your line of thinking, but if you can’t or won’t see them yourself there is no point in us having further exchanges on the matter.

                  Like

                • Rick

                  Works for me. This may be the first time I’ve encountered someone who insisted that I identify specific flaws in my reasoning that he or she has in mind. Bizarre. I agree we are likely to learn very little from one another.

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                • Wow. I’m now positive that Rick is a Tech fan after that exchange.

                  Like

                • I am positive that Rick is beating a dead horse. What difference does it make now!? You can post the same shit until the cows come home and it is not going to bring Richt back. McGarrity is not suddenly going to say to the Board of Regents “Hey–I was reading GTP the other day and this guy Rick made a good point about Richt’s winning percentage–and guys, I think we fucked up.”

                  So Rick, respectfully–its over. Say what you will about the way all this happened (I didn’t think it was right)–but the new direction has begun. Embrace it or don’t–either way, please stop boring us with the same shit.

                  Like

                • Dog in Fla

                  “Hey–I was reading GTP the other day…”

                  Who doesn’t?

                  Like

    • Turd Ferguson

      Good lord.

      Like

      • Semper Fi Dawg

        I saw Rick at the Gala the other night. He had to be escorted out after the brown paper bag and oxygen masks failed….

        Like

    • Normaltown Mike

      bwah ha ha ha ha ha ha

      no…stop….

      bwah ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

      Like

    • @gatriguy

      Let’s see if he lasts 10 years at Da U without winning a conference title, shall we? UGA paid him close to $35M, and is honoring the buy-out on a contract he wouldn’t even fucking sign. I’m sick of hearing how poorly he was treated. He’s clearly moved on, you should too.

      Like

      • Napoleon BonerFart

        You may be the only person outside of B-M (I presume), who believes UGA spends too much on the football program.

        Like

    • PTC DAWG

      Too patient in my opinion..10 years and nothing but heartaches..heartaches I tell ya.

      Like

    • ConyersDawg

      Don’t guess you remember all those games where UGA failed to show huh?Or Richts 5 and 13 record against top twenty teams huh?Geez I wish we could get rid of fans like you!

      Like

  2. Bright Idea

    Rush at Ga Southern???? He’d do it for 500K I bet.

    Like

  3. Glad we got Real Live Bud Kilmer’s input on the matter…again. That guy really sucks.

    Like

  4. Give McGarity until the SECchampionship. If UGA doesn’t win it, he is gone.

    It was fair for Coach Richt. Right?

    Like

    • Normaltown Mike

      you mean in year 15, right?

      I’m not good at math (I went to Georgia) but I can count the number of season CMR had beginning in 2001 and ending with 2015. It was 15.

      Hold on, I’m gonna get my Blackout hat out the close and put it on.

      Like

  5. Jared S.

    The funny thing about this whole situation is that Kirby Smart may make Georgia football, say, 15-20% better than it has been during the last three years. And that will be a marked and noticeable improvement. We may see a much better O-line develop, along with an amazing QB. Continued great running attack. Our defense may continue to grow and really start to look more solid blah blah blah…..

    But it still might not be enough. That’s the crazy thing. 15-20% better than we are right now might not be enough to beat UT or FLA….. and certainly not some SEC West programs……

    Like

    • dudemankind

      Yeah, but we are better than those SEC West teams when it comes to pre-game trash talking. We can hang our hat on that right?

      Like

      • Jared S.

        I could actually feel my face flush with embarrassment when our players tried to “intimidate” (or whatever) Bama players as they ran out before the game this year. It looked so stupid. The game hadn’t even started and I thought, “This looks so stupid. I hope they (the Georgia players) don’t get embarrassed.”
        Aye aye aye.

        Like

    • Gaskilldawg

      If Smart makes us 20% better than the past 3 years then we will average 13.5 wins per season. Good luck with that.

      Like

  6. Doggoned

    I loved Richt. Admired him. He’s gone. Get over it. This used to be the grown-up UGA blog.

    Like

  7. Will Trane

    How passionate is Kirby Smart? Very close to Coach Probst. Do not think you stay on a Saban’s staff that long and not get it done. Same with Probst. Get it done, or go somewhere else. Their records speak for themselves. But they love their players and their players / staff achievements. With Probst, Saban, Smart, and a few others it is fun to watch their teams play. Play at a high level, and execute plays and game plans.
    Think Smart is very savvy, and is slowly putting his staff in place. As that goes down you will see the players fill in. Probst made the comment post 6A championship game, there are a lot of very good football players in Georgia. Smart will get them on board. There is a strong emphasis on the Oline at Georgia. Smart saw his future oline in Athens a few weeks back. Now, where do you think he wants to go with that side of the ball. Bama’s defense had a field day.
    There are some very good high school football coaches in Georgia in all classifications now. They know how to get these young men coached up for the next level. All you have to do is go to a practice, a 7 on 7, or watch the sidelines during a game. Masterful work by these coaches.
    If the D side rumors are accurate, Smart will maintain a top defense at Georgia.
    Georgia has to be different if it wants to run with UT and UF for SECEC and SEC title. Dawgs have lost some ground in ’15 on offensive side of the ball.
    Can some one tell me where Shotty is going now. The Pittman hire was huge!

    Like

  8. Semper Fi Dawg

    would love to see schotty go to the “U”

    Like

  9. DawgByte

    Rush Probst’s assessment of UGA’s program following Mark Richt’s firing was the best ink in a sea of journalistic babbling. The coach knows his stuff and his assessment of our talent gap was right on the money.

    Like

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  65. Rick

    It appears to be directed at me? What a fantastic article. More of that guy, please.

    Like

  66. Derek II

    Impatient!? How many coaches has UGA has since their last NC 25 years ago? Like 3? For the guy that said Georgia fans are impatient. face palm

    Like