David Wunderlich has done an excellent job filtering the Georgia-Florida game through Bill Connelly’s Five Factors of winning. The entire post is worth your attention, but if you want the tl;dr bullet point version, here ’tis:
- Georgia is far more explosive on offense than is Florida.
- Georgia’s defense is better at preventing explosive plays than is Florida’s.
- Both teams are similar when it comes to offensive efficiency.
- Florida’s defense has been lock down in the fourth quarter.
- Florida has enjoyed better starting field position than has Georgia. (“In a game with 25 possessions, that implies Florida would end up with 75 yards’ worth of field position advantage.”)
- Florida has a turnover advantage.
That field position metric exposes an area of concern (for me, at least) for Georgia that probably hasn’t gotten the attention it deserves, the punt game. Georgia is an anemic 75th in net punting. In terms of average, its punt return game has been dynamic. The problem is that the Dawgs have only returned 13 of 40 punts this season. When you consider the weapons Georgia has at the return position, that’s a lot of wasted opportunities.
Add it all up, and it’s easy to visualize each team’s recipe for success. Kirby Smart wants what he got out of his team in its first six games, early leads, which allowed his defense to play conservatively and force the opponent to grind out offense, peppered with the occasional big play that gradually allowed Georgia to pull away.
Florida, on the other hand…
The Gators’ best shot on offense is probably to keep doing what they’ve been doing except against Kentucky: stay on schedule and play the field position game. On defense, they need to avoid giving up the big play against an explosive UGA offense since the Gators are an excellent efficiency defense. That means playing bend-but-don’t-break between the 20s and being judicious with blitzes.
Maybe the biggest factor will be not falling behind early.
In other words, replicate the LSU game plan. David’s conclusion sounds a lot like what Billy Gomila told us leading up to the loss.
LSU didn’t fall behind early, and UGA was not comfortable playing from behind. The Gators’ advantages in efficiency defense and field position mean they’re hard to come back against. With a continuation of their turnover luck in recovering opponent fumbles, Florida can follow a path to victory in Jacksonville. It’ll be hard, but it’s doable.
This is going to be an impose your will contest. Just like the week before, the better focused team is likely your winner.
Get The Picture 
Why does this not make me comfortable? We could very well beat Florida, just like we could have beaten LSU. I’m not confident the coaches won’t panic again, though.
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The coaches didn’t panic so much as our QB wet the bed. Yes, Holyfield got screwed and that’s fully on the coaches, but if Fromm hits any number of wide-the-f***-open targets it changes a lot, especially the first quarter when he missed three of them.
I haven’t checked this, but I heard we ran it 17 times in the first half and 16 times in the second, but we got haf the yards in the second. So that tells me there was at least a reason for throwing it. However not feeding Holyfield the ball was coaching malpractice.
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Did Fromm have an off day throwing the ball against LSU? Yes. Is that why the Dawgs lost that game? No! The Dawgs lost because against a difficult opponent on the road our coaching staff, particularly on O (read: Kirby and Chaney) made a series of incredibly stupid coaching blunders that maximized LSU’s good play and minimized Georgia’s good play when it happened. One of our regular posters likened it to seeing “a corvette being driven by a retard.” (his words) I agree. I have no confidence that Kirby/Chaney grew a brain during the past week. The question in my mind is: Can the skill of the players overcome the coaches’ ineptitude? I can only hope so.
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The OC play calling reminded me of Auburn last year which gives me hope next week will be better. However, it does not give me confidence that UGA will not continue to have a game a year where the fans are shaking their heads asking what in the… was that?
In a close game especially with this team which doesn’t have Chubb/Michel, if a RB is getting hot, stick with him. The team does not have 2 veteran RBs which are keeping each other from getting in the Heisman race. I’d like to see Holyfield get 20+ carries. I would say “or Swift” if he is 100% but he has been nursing injuries.
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Mayor, while Fromm was not solely responsible for the loss in Baton Rogue, there is certainly even blame to hand out, he had a huge hand in the outcome. Missing multiple opportunities throughout the game, especially early, certainly hurt and changed both the momentum as well as the flow of the game. Why did Fromm play poorly? The answer is twofold, 1). Poor pass protection led to bad decisions, inaccurate passes and a multitude of additional poor outcomes. 2). For whatever reason (see # 1 for the most likely answer) Fromm has been “off” this season. We have not seen the progression all Dawgs fans hoped for and expected in year 2. It is possible that Fromm is nothing more than an average QB who thrived in 2017 behind an incredible O-line and a great group of RB’s. It is just as likely that his struggles are due to poor pass protection. What is truly concerning is his dismal performance on 3rd and moderate to long.
Our offense just could not get going against LSU, which falls upon the shoulders of everyone involved. It is up to the coaches to fix this problem by whatever means necessary prior to Saturday against the Gators. Will it happen is the question. I sure as hell hope so. I am not as quick to dump everything on Chaney as others are following a bad loss. If the offense looks as inept in Jax this weekend as they did in Baton Rogue, well, that’s when my story will change.
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Going into that game, he was having a better year than last (QBR). Too early to say he is having an “off season”. I believe he bounces back this Saturday.
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I agree with everybody ^^ in this chain. I too saw the corvette analogy and thought it was apropos. It’s like a car stuck in second gear sometimes. Or if you prefer the description in Tin Cup: “MY (golf) SWING FEELS LIKE AN UNFOLDED LAWN CHAIR.”
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I’m with ya Russ….hoping the staff is focused also to give us a shot. Probably the worst performance from a UGA coaching staff I’ve seen A bunch of head scratching decisions….hoping it was an anomaly, but then I think back to some of the decisions made in the MNCG….the second half when we tried to slow it & allowed Bama to get back in the game.
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The field position stuff is crucial, yet rarely discussed. Last year UGA was pinning teams deep and getting stops quickly, which was constantly tilting the field toward UGA. This year it’s the exact opposite, it seems.
Florida has 18 TOs gained this year, 3rd most in the nation—second in the SEC to LSU. If UGA plays a clean game in that regard I suspect it covers, but with Grantham blitzing the sink I could see a pick (or two) from either QB (especially Fields if he gets in as Grantham will throw a lot at him).
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We had great punting last season and this year it is mediocre at best. That single fact explains a lot about the field position disadvantage the Dawgs have experienced this season measured against last year and it directly translated into points in the LSU game.
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The filp side of Grantham’s aggressiveness is the UF defense is fairly average in allowing explosive plays (ranked 56 in Bill C’s IsoPPP metric) and we’re above average in creating explosive plays (18th in same rankings). I can just as easily see a Grantham blitz allowing for a big gain. Especially if we can use Swift, Hardman, Cook in the screen game.
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That requires Fromm making the right read on the blitz, and it getting picked up properly. O-line can’t have a mediocre game, RBs included.
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If there is a game where going HUNH makes sense, this weekend is it. We can catch them in a few situations where there’s a lot of hand waving going on.
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Grantham likes to blitz the the edge, the middle and the delay. He’s a Horse’s a$$ with a desire to belittle his opponents. Not a lot of cerebral talent, but lots of testosterone. Know the man and know how to play the man.
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Agreed and a good OC can do so with high percentage passes.
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I enjoy David’s work but I believe he’s double counting the field position state. If each team get 12.5 possession a game and UGA’s average start is 27 YDS and UF’s is 30 YDS. Then UGA would have 912.5 total yards to gain for TD – (12.5 x (100 – 27 YDS)) – and UF would have 875 – (12.5 x (100 – 30 YDS)) – for net of 37.5 YDS not 70.
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I think you may be right in your calculations Josh. But the eye test is what bothers me. When the punter is punting the ball fine 3 out of 4 times but the 4th time, with his team deep on its own side of the field, he shanks the ball allowing the opponent a first down at the Georgia 35 yard line, on average it only appears a minor thing. In real life game situations that is a very bad thing. I saw a couple of really bad punts against LSU at the worst possible time.
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I definitely agree that our poor field position is an underrated negative about the team what isn’t getting nearly the same amount of ink as QB and ILB play. Especially when you factor in the bend but don’t break nature of our D this year, making teams drive any extra 5 yards each time would really help our D in the course of a game.
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Yo, if that’s math, then it doesn’t belong here. Take it to the Playpen thread. 🙂
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ROQUAN
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Good points by David but one monor detail- having coaches that know how to adjust in-game to snatch momentum away from UF would also be advisable. A fake field goal early on 4th and 9 was just dumb since LSU didnt really have “momentum” up 3-0 early in the game. Call that play with Mecole running and not the kicker. We couldn’t handle the adversity at LSU, and there wasn’t a leader on either side of the ball that day that took over or did anything to unite/excite/motivate/inspire/lead the team except maybe Holyfield & Davis. Let’s hope for better at Jax. GATA
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Could they not handle the adversity because of play calling or mental reasons. I don’t buy as much into the mental side as most. The coaches called the fake FG and offense like the team needed to steal points which, they didn’t it was 10 point game much of the time and could have been 7 with a FG that should be automatic. I don’t understand how the same staff that didn’t panic with Oklahoma called LSU so different.
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I don’t understand how the same staff that didn’t panic with Oklahoma called LSU so different.
LSU had a stout defense. Oklahoma, not as much.
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The fake field goal set the tone for the game. It told LSU we were scared of them and needed something goofy to win. When something like that works, we as fans get giddy about it (and why not?) but it’s a bad sign when you do that early on with a 4th and 9 situation and it flops. I think a lot after that was desperation on our part trying to overcome that single decision. I felt right then we were going to lose the game. I hate being right sometimes.
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Holyfield and our OC only gave him the ball 7 times.
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It’s kind of odd, but every SEC game this team has played has featured a
significant (and usually weird) play out of the gate.
SC: Ricochet pick 6
Mizzou: Delayed whistle strip and TD
Vols: Nauta’s fumble rumble
Vandy: Godwin’s 75 yarder to get on the board
LSU: the fake FG
4 of those went Georgia’s way. 1 didn’t.
Screw momentum this game. Just tighten the vise all game long until they crack.
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Agree, just squeeze them to death. While Holyfield is not the most decorated running back we’ve had over the last 6 years, I think he brings the most PAIN to opposing defenses. Even more than Gurley. He runs into contact like he wants to hurt the defender.
Elijah will break them if we let him.
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This game will really hinge upon Fromm’s ability to read where the blitz is coming from IMO. If they blitz, throw to the vacated spot. He and his WRs/RBs need to be on the same page for that. And if we don’t abuse the Wheel Route, I will be pissed.
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100% agree with your statement. Grantham will bring the pressure nearly every play. Fromm just has to see where the pressure is coming from and hit the hot route. If he can handle this and use their aggressiveness against them, The Dawgs will move the ball easily. If he can’t, the the Gator D will be all over us. I actually think this is the key to the game. Can Fromm handle and deal with the Gator pressure? Our O-line is going to be under duress all day; so Fromm needs to make quick decisions and be accurate. If he’s able to do this, the Dawgs will easily cover the spread. If cannot, it’s going to be a long day. We all know Grantham will want this game more than any other!
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According to the advanced stats guy: “On defense, they need to avoid giving up the big play against an explosive UGA offense since the Gators are an excellent efficiency defense. That means playing bend-but-don’t-break between the 20s and being judicious with blitzes.”
I think Grantham can’t help himself and will blitz early and often to try to capture momentum and sow doubt among UGA players & fans. It’s personal to him, so let’s hope we are prepared with appropriate counter measures (i.e. the wheel route).
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The field position contest will be significant, as it almost always is. UGA’s field position is due to: 1) not sustaining drives this year, we aren’t making the key 3rd down pickups whether they be failed short yardage runs, missed passes, or missed blocks on the OL and, 2) net punting yardage change from last year. I think Carmada was booming punts early in the year but my theory is the staff had him change his drop to shorten the kicks from mid-field, and/or get better side bounces or “backspin”. Since that point he has missed a few kicks badly and I think that comes from the changes he may have been experimenting with. Kind of like taking a half club off in a golf shot can lead to developing swing flaws and timing. I would rather let some go into the end zone on shorter kicks and get back to hitting the long punts necessary to not give the opponents shorter fields in regular punt exchanges. May be wrong, but something changed, and it changed immediately.
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I would agree on Camarda. I’ll accept the touchbacks in exchange for the booming kick that hangs.
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Good points Mac. Maybe we ought to have a long punter and a pooch pinter.
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If LSU didn’t get the Dawgs focused then I don’t know what would.
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Yeah, our young punter started the season looking good but has regressed or so it seems. Smart got interviewed about him earlier in the year and talked about how he wasn’t concerned, that Camarda had played on championship teams in demanding areas through grade school. That may be but he really struggled at LSU. I guess grade school doesn’t prepare you for Death Valley, even though it’s hard for me to grasp how that affects a punter. Kickers can be head cases, as we know first hand.
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Stats don’t mean jack! If the Dawgs (and coaches) don’t show up to play like their lives depend on it, all hell is going to break loose if they lose! For that matter, all hell will break lose (in a good way) if they win! Come on, Dawgs! Get it together!
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This game will prove whether Kirby is going to be what we all hope he will be, or perhaps a more accurate picture of what he is. The LSU game is history. This is one of the games that count. I am pulling for Kirby.
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Kirby needs to make it 2-1 vs the Gators and never look back.
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Why is everybody have their toes on the edge of the cliff about this gators team?
Unless this is a different gator team that lost to uk and allowed Vandy to score 27 on them,
I don’t get why everyone has their red panties in a wad?
I will be shocked if this game is ever close.
Dan Mullen and the rest of those cheese dicks are still light years behind the Dawgs. Felipe Franks isn’t even J. Crompton.
We have superior talent and a coaching staff that won’t shat the bed two weeks in a row.
Dawgs roll.
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They did beat the team that just beat UGA.
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Then Ohio State is lucky they don’t play Eastern Michigan.
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No kidding but with that said Urbs has a trend of dropping that exact game, just as UGA has a trend of struggling in Jax, Further UF has been improving same as Purdue has been improving. UF is playing better now than they were against Kentucky, Purdue is better now than they were against Eastern Michigan
On the flip side UGA has owned CTG, Smart has owned Mullen, and CTG.
I get why some are not worried but also why there is such talk. On paper I like UGA and think they present less of a challenge than LSU for many reasons. UGA has the speed to limit the UF perimeter passing game, LSU’s interior rushing bothered me. But I’d be a liar if I said I wasn’t anxious about the game. Paper doesn’t play games.
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Agreed. I think I just wanted a chance to point out Urban’s team lost to a team that lost to Eastern Michigan
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What will be said about this team if they drop another game to a top 10 team on the road, back to back, and televised by CBS?
For sure the optics will not be good?
We know Grantham likes to attack the defense via the QB.
So what does Tucker have in store for Franks.
Think the Gators are going to see more of Fields than they think.
Would be curious what Mike Bobo shared with Smart re CSU early season game / loss to Gators.
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