Looking at the data compiled in these two tweets…
… it’s hard to escape the realization that the LSU loss killed Georgia’s margin for error to make the national semi-finals.
Had the Dawgs won in Baton Rouge, they likely would have stayed in consideration even with a loss in the SECCG. Instead, it’s find a way to beat the Tide or they’re out.
Get The Picture 
I still think regardless of the outcome in Baton Rouge, it was going to be win in Atlanta or go to a NY6 bowl game. I never saw the committee giving us a 2nd bite at the apple.
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Well.. Maybe it wasn’t just me😉
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If we win on 12/1, Bama had better be out too. No way they should go in over any 1 loss big 5 conf. champ or an undefeated ND team. And besides, we ain’t beating them twice and shouldn’t have to. Everyone seems to forget that last year Bama was a 1 loss team and OSU was a TWO loss team and it was still debatable/controversial to pass them over. If the records are the same, the tie should go to the conf. winner.
As far as I’m concerned, barring meltdowns in the ACC, Big 12, 10 and in South Bend, it’s a 3 game playoff starting on 12/1. Win and advance. Lose and you’re out.
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If Alabama loses a nail biter to us, they’re in. Michigan is probably out. IF the criteria is the 4 best teams, that would be fair. If UGA was undefeated and lost a nail biter, I’d say we should be in, too. Michigan and/or ND will be chum in the water for the rest of the field. Just my opinion, of course
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Shouldn’t come down to subjective opinions. Objective standards should matter more. “Deserve” deserves more consideration than opinion. If all things are equal, only then do you go to opinion.
I think my take would be the outcome. I’d like the opportunity to find out.
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The problem with that is the entire circular argument. The subjective side will come in any argument with team with a loss. In this scenario Bama should be out because they lost to UGA, and Michigan should be out because they lost to ND.
I think the committee with give the conference champ a nudge over a non conference champ Bama especially with Bama’s OOC schedule. Maybe my inner Munson isn’t working.
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Conference championships are not opinions, period.
If you got to decide between 2 big 5 conference champs with identical records: opinions will matter.
If you have to decide between two non-conference champs with the same record: opinions will matter.
A Big 10, Pac-12, Big 12, ACC champ with 1 loss > SEC runner up with 1 loss. End of story.
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Disagreed, and if that is the thought process then there is no incentive to schedule out of conference.
If UGA goes to Texas or Clemson and wins and they end up a 1 loss conference champ. Then UGA drops a game to the eventual SEC champ, UGA should get in over the team which they beat.
If not why even play a P5 out of conference game?
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81, your opinion is as good as anyone’s.
My take, if Clemmons wins out, Michigan wins out, ND wins out, UGA beats Bama by 1.
1. Clemmons
2. UGA
3. ND
4. Michigan
I don’t think the committee will put a 1 loss Bama over a 1 loss conference champ, Michigan.
Undefeated ND is the media darling, and won’t get voted out.
Out would be Bama, and the bitching would be HUGE!
Again, just an opinion.
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What should happen and what will happen are two different things. Georgia would either have to blow Alabama out, or Michigan would have to be dominant in both its win over Ohio State and in the Big Ten title game. Otherwise, Alabama would get in over them.
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The SECCG will always be considered a de facto quarterfinal unless there are 2 multiple loss teams. The winner is going to get in and the loser is going to be out. I hope that theory gets a serious test on December 1 if we catch lightning in a bottle.
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I think this is correct, provided Michigan win out. IF things go as planned (hello, 2007!), then an undefeated Notre Dame is most definitely not getting left out (remember, the committee eschews “advanced metrics” because reasons – they do understand eyes on screens, though), a one-loss B1G blueblood champ is not getting left out, and an undefeated Clemson is not getting left out. There’s no room for one-loss, non-champ Alabama.
But that’s pretty far down the road.
A more interesting conversation is how the BigXII keeps hitting itself in the face with stupid decisions.
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IF UGA wins in Atlanta, Bama is going to need a Michigan or an ND loss to get in….you could throw in Clempson, but the best team they have left is Carolina…
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Yep – +1
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UGA has been playing “lose and you’re out” playoff since LSU game.
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Agree ee. No way the loser of the sec championship gets in, even if bama loses a close ‘game for the ages’. The noise UCF makes would be nothing compared to the screaming of other P5 conferences if a 1 loss champion isn’t picked. And ND already has 1 foot in the door.
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I feel the same way.
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It could just be me, but I think that cushion was always an illusion. Alabama gets the benefit of the doubt, probably, because they’ve been a dominant number 1 all year. UGA? Easy to imagine us getting harrumphed into the 5 spot because “conference championship” or “too many cupcakes” or whatever the cover for”we really don’t want 2 SEC teams in the CFP” ends up being.
We are on the rise, but the desire to have a big 10 and or ND plus -“geographic diversity” still means we have to knock out Alabama, we can’t get in on just being one of the 4 best teams. Sometimes being better just isn’t good enough for the football engineers, and the lesser programs will all whine bitterly that the numbers don’t matter.
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Well said, 81. I kind of made the same points (below) but you’re a little plainer with your words (mine are tainted by seething for the manipulators).
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UGA could lose to bama in a “nail biter” and still be one one of the 4 best teams. It won’t work that way for us though if they lost that “nail biter” they would find a way in.
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Apparently we are the Hillary Clinton of the CFP field. Put us in and errybody’s head explodes.
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I completely agree – I don’t think we ever had a cushion. We don’t have the recent history of success that Alabama does (no one does, of course), and that’s the reason they had their cushion and made the playoffs last year. I don’t think anyone else gets that same cushion, including us. I think it’s always been, win the SECCG.
And I don’t think that even an SEC championship could get us in as a 2 loss team. Let’s say that we lost to LSU and Auburn and then somehow beat an undefeated Alabama in the SECCG. I am certain that in that case, the committee would choose Oklahoma, Clemson, Notre Dame, and the toss-up would be between Alabama and Michigan, not us and Michigan.
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We’ll see how the next 3 weeks play out. If we end up with 2 P5 conferences with zero worthy playoff resumes (B1G, P12 last year, plus no Notre Dame), then it will definitely have been a missed opportunity.
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If LSU keeps winning, don’t these stats make an argument for UGA to be in even with a loss in SECCG?
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The SOS already makes that argument..but it isn’t about the best four teams..it’s about making all the people outside the SEC happy. They were fair, probably for the final time, last year.
(I would love to have to eat my words)
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No….I don’t see it. LSU would deserve it more than us, ASSuming they win out. But neither would be worthy with 2 losses in my mind….barring a calamity of losses with the other 3 top 4 teams.
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Very proud of our DAWGS and the players/staffs accomplishments so far this year and last……would be a real shitter to win the SECCG in December and to possibly face that team again 30 days later…….nice, but give us somebody else to beat up on! GO DAWGS!
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If the actual deciding criteria is cold, statistical and pure then Georgia would be a lock with the only loss to Alabama. Notre Dame’s SOS kills them.
IF (Since?) however, so many other non-statistical and emotional factors are involved (see “SEC Envy and Jealousy”, “The Herbstreit Doctrine”, “Notre Dame Entitlement”, etc.) I think the loss to LSU is a killer.
But had Georgia won that one, would they have developed as well as they have since? It was turning point that might not have been met. Maybe it was the turning point that will keep on giving for years.
If Georgia played Clemson’s schedule..do you think they lose one? I don’t.
ND’s schedule? Dawgs may be the second or third best team right now..and getting better. But things are what they are.
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Agree Senator. I wrote a post the other day that says basically the same thing you said above.
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We should bear in mind what the narrative would be if we’d won at LSU. We’d be undefeated and there would be a building drumbeat on the way to the national championship game rematch in Atlanta.
I think we would’ve definitely been in the conversation for the playoff with an undefeated regular season and respectable loss to Alabama in the title game.
Although, as pointed out above, who knows whether we would’ve continued to improve like we have if we’d won in Baton Rouge.
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I still think there is a good chance either ND and/or Michigan loses.
Upsets are coming.
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Ohio State is in Michigan’s head just like Florida used to be in Georgia’s. And that’s going to factor into that game.
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Blutarsky makes the point nicely, but it’s still the same as saying that a two loss team has never made the playoffs. It’s annoying because Georgia’s credentials shown above are sound, and you can throw shade at ND and Clemson (which is always fun) but fugghedaboutit unless we beat the Death Star.
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For the Off/Def efficiency chart, one of those teams is not like the others.
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Even if Georgia had taken out LSU (which I’m now completely convinced we should have, and mea culpa, Senator, you were right to rank Georgia ahead of them the week after the game) and even if the committee were to put Georgia in the playoff with a loss to Alabama, we’d almost certainly still need to beat Alabama to win a national championship. Being in the playoff is amazing and you get some great swag and I love seeing the shiny silver Nike swoosh on the uniforms, but really, getting in doesn’t mean as much if you just lose to Alabama a second time.
No, we’ve got to beat Alabama either way, so we might as well return to the scene of the crime and right some wrongs from January 8th and deny Alabama yet another SEC Championship. Let’s make the committee’s tough decision about THEIR inclusion and not ours.
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I believe that UGA would 2nd or 3rd with a win in LSU but a loss to Bama in the SECCG would tumble UGA out of the top 4. The committee wouldn’t miss the chance to put Michigan in the playoff.
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Pulling for Southern Cal (against ND) more than any time in my life.
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Pull for Syracuse instead. They’ve got the better chance of pulling the upset.
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2 loss UGA isn’t getting over 1 loss ND, Michigan, Clemson, or Oklahoma or WVU assuming OU or WVU does it with a Big12 title. Pulling for no upsets with a win and in to the playoff without a possible Bama rematch.
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Would much prefer a ND matchup for UGA in the Cotton Bowl…
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Best SOS of the top 6 …Heather Dinich cries “fake news!”
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She is truly awful. I can’t decide if it’s because she’s not that good or if it’s because she has the CFP all year long beat and has to generate all these false narratives and what-ifs to make it interesting. You know, like “will one-loss Michigan be left out of Bama loses to Georgia” which isn’t even remotely happening.
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I am pulling for ND, Michigan, and Clemson to win out because I want Bama to have as little argument as possible of making the playoff. I want UGA to roll into Atlanta with everything on the table.
Further I am pulling for Auburn to win against all hope in the Iron Bowl to make sure the SECCG is a must win for both teams, and that Bama would clearly be out with a loss in the SECCG. I don’t want to face Bama twice, no matter what happens in Atlanta.
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Bingo Otto!!
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Don’t know why anyone would be upset if we lost to Bama and didn’t get in, we would have 2 losses, and not be a conference champion; end of story. I also think Bama is out if we win in December (unless we lose to GT). The only way Bama could get in with that loss is if two of ND, Michigan, Clemson, and OU/WVA lose a game from this point forward. That is very unlikely given the opposition they face, best chance would be Michigan and ND. The SECCG is a play-in, no problem from me.
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I think the best chance is OU-WVU splitting games in back-to-back weeks. Obviously, WVU has some work before the completely unnecessary Big12 CG, but can you imagine 2 of the current top 4 stumbling and the Big12 getting left out because they had their two top team play each other twice and they split?
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And that isn’t an unlikely scenario. I think OU will win out but that defense makes them susceptible to an offense like WVU. A loss from ND to Syracuse this week will really throw things in a tizzy, but nothing will like a Bama loss to UGA.
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If ND fall this season then OU and WVU maybe in the driver’s seat for the 4th spot.
However if OU and WVU both finish with 2 losses with a loss to each other in the regular season and then the winner falling the Big12 championship game, ND would then likely be back in with 1 loss.
As you said chaos breaks out if UGA wins out, and then chaos happens to ND, WVU, OU etc
I believe an undefeated Clemson, and ND are locks as well as the SEC Champ. But… a 1 loss ND, Big10, PAC10, or Big12 champs are not.
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All comments on this seem to be pretty much in agreement.
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I have it on good authority that regardless of 12/1, UGA is in if we promise to wear black jerseys.
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I’m predicting one of two post season games for UGA…either we play ND in the Cotton, or OU in the Sugar.
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Hope you are right . Old Georgia would have drawn some crappy name team in the Peach.
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I know the fan base would howl especially if it backfired and we lost but how “no fucks given” would it be if Kirby announced we were wearing black uniforms against Alabama, especially if we announced it immediately after beating tech. a very burn the ships, no retreat type move.
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Georgia needs to win in Athens or none of this matters.
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If I read that right, the three best teams for Off/Def efficiency also play the the three worst SOS, and then there is ND – and I am not a ND hater as a general rule – that has a poor ranking in efficiency and has the worst SOS. So why would anyone say ND is one of the four best teams? Hint: TV ratings. That is the main non-subjective that counts.
I hope we beat Bama and get in, but I am not going to cut my wrists if we don’t.
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Only 3 teams in the top group that is in the Top 10 in both offense and defense. It is what kills OU, and why ND and Michigan cannot beat Bama. OU’s offense might keep the Sooners in against Bama, the game might look like UGA/OU last year; Sooners would have to play almost perfect to hang with Bama. Only UGA and Clemson’s offense is capable of scoring enough to give them a chance, even then, the defense has to make a few stops.
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