From Mandel’s Mailbag ($$), about the next round of conference realignment:
If there’s another big round of shuffling, it will likely come somewhere in the 2023-26 range. Several major TV contracts will come up for bid in short succession, starting with the Big Ten (2023), followed by the Pac-12 (2024), Big 12 (2025) and, perhaps most significantly, the College Football Playoff (2025). Don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Big Ten opted for shorter-than-usual six-year deals with ESPN and FOX in its last round of negotiations. Or that the Pac-12 recently turned down a tempting offer from ESPN to take over distribution for the long-struggling Pac-12 Networks that would have locked in its Tier 1 rights “well into the 2030s.”
Most people in the business believe there could be some sort of major shakeup around the time of that aforementioned window. But nobody has any idea what that might be, in large part because the TV rights climate is changing so rapidly.
Got that? When realignment comes — again — it won’t be a matter of what’s best for the sport. It’ll be a matter of what’s best for the conferences’ bank accounts.
College football doesn’t need a commissioner. Just outsource the job to the head of ESPN and eliminate the middleman.
Get The Picture 
I don’t see where the sources for expansion come from without one of the P5 (cough, cough … the Big 12 … cough, cough) collapsing.
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Well if another round of realignment does happen, who do you think the SEC might pursue?
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My personal opinion is to grab Kansas and Oklahoma. SEC could go to four 4 team pods and utilize pod schedules. I don’t want Texas in the SEC, let the PAC 12 deal with that headache and three other Texas schools. The Big 10 can get the leftovers. ACC gets WV and Notre Dame would lose its independent status or not be guaranteed a spot in the new playoff formula unless it joins the ACC.
It will be really interesting at the next media rights negotiation if it goes the way Mandel thinks the sport as we know it will be completely different. The other option is 4 super conferences with 16 teams each and some sort of mandatory scheduling..ie 9 conference games +2 vs Super 4 opponents. The group of 5 would be relegated to table scraps of the super 4 with only being able to get one pay day a year from the super 4. I think the 4 super conferences could be a change for the sport that would keep some semblance of how it’s done today and allowing the leagues to still have a marketable product. Fans get better scheduling of opponents with only one non super 4 cupcake a year…
As pointed out the money grab is real and it could either end up more like a NFL looking league with 64 teams or you could see only the blue bloods playing each other ala Soccers champions league
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Oklahoma for sure, but Oki State or WV instead of Kansas.
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Kansas’ football program is too much of an abomination regardless of how elite their basketball program is. Hell to the no.
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If it’s about media rights Kansas helps with bb content. Neither of the markets are moved really unless you get UT and Oklahoma or just one of them. I don’t think the media rights for Texas are worth the headaches.
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I say we get So Cal and Oregon. Or maybe Alaska and Hawaii. After all, “It just means more.” 😒
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Great road trips, though.
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Oh yeah, the heart is doing great.
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It may not go the way they plan. There just may be less money to go around.
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That would be my bet, based both on what is going on in today’s game, and likely to be the state of the nation’s economy. ESPN has already faced major cutbacks for over paying in the last round of negotiations, they will bargain harder. And this could come when the programs are facing falling attendance for home games and desperate to sign better conference TV contracts. Leverage seems to favor the networks given the trends, especially with lower Power 5 conferences and the entire Group of 5. Reduction in televised, regular season games of low interest seems to be a logical direction for the networks; and that might could get that at a lower price.
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I wouldn’t mind seeing it all scaled back, but my fear is if the money starts to run short, ESPN will go to staged games much like any other programming for television. Sure, they’re already doing it now at a certain level. But it can get much worse, with schedules in constant flux, more advertisement, rule changes and other things further changing the game I grew up loving.
All things changes, and CFB is no exception. I think we’re witnessing the beginning of the downward trend.
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The sweet spot of college football plus television for me was before conference expansion and the last few rounds of media deals, when I could still see all the Gator games if I was willing to get PPV. I remember thinking at the time, “Wouldn’t it be great if all these games just came on regular cable”? Well, I got what I wished for. I can see every game now, including the Sisters of the Poor my Gators insist on scheduling for three games a year. And now the regional magic of college football is dying if not dead. The TV Gods must be appeased…
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Mickey would luv, luv, luv conference expansion (but less overall monie$ for individual conference members), which will lead to playoff expan$ion, which would lead more commercial$, which will lead to…WTF, we’re doomed!
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If you expand to 16, scheduling becomes a HELL of a LOT EASIER than with 14. Also, if every conference went to 16, it would be settled on the field “who is better”.
After all, maybe it is a “hidden clue” that the CFP trophy has 4 lines/spots – 4 ultimate conferences?
For those wanting to downsize, are you ready to go back to all the other conferences we used to have?
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