“If you’re starting to wonder how Georgia can compete with Auburn at all…”

This betting piece on Saturday’s game isn’t quite the Georgia slam the quote in the header sounds like.  At least not completely.

Whether the Tigers face Daniels, Bennett IV or Mathis on Saturday probably is immaterial. The Bulldogs have suffered significant losses on the offensive line in recent seasons and ran for just 2.9 yards per carry against Arkansas.

Outside of one-time Auburn commit George Pickens, it’s fair to wonder whether Georgia has any receivers that will threaten the Tigers downfield. Not that Kirby Smart will want Monken and the offense taking too many chances with a lesser offensive line and a lack of comfort at quarterback.

The defense gets some praise.

… consider the Bulldogs defense. Georgia features eight former five-star players on that side of the ball, the most of any team, and ranks No. 1 in SP+ defense.

The Bulldogs defense is surprisingly passive. It doesn’t generate much havoc in the form of sacks, tackles for loss, passes defensed and interceptions. Georgia plays disciplined, scheme-first football designed to prevent big plays. You may get a few first downs, but you’re rarely going to gash it.

The Bulldogs allowed just 11 plays of 30+ yards in 2019, second-best nationally.

Basically, he thinks both defenses are going to have the upper hand Saturday, which makes taking the under (the over/under started at 38.5 points and moved to 45) the smart pick.

Unders are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, cashing by an average of 11 points per game. Auburn-Georgia has produced 35, 37 and 35 total points in the last three years.

Here’s a chart of the team’s last 10 games:

Screenshot_2020-10-01 Auburn a smart bet as an underdog at Georgia

Kentucky-Auburn and Georgia-Arkansas cashed for under bettors on Saturday, producing 42 and 47 points, respectively.

The Auburn-Georgia total sits at 45. All due respect to the Razorbacks and Wildcats, but the Tigers and Bulldogs offenses face much bigger challenges this week.

Take under 45 as well.

You know what else is 8-2 over those ten games?  Georgia is.  That’s why I assume he’s only betting on Auburn to cover the spread, rather than win outright.

For the latter, I leave you in Barrett Sallee’s hands.

No. 7 Auburn at No. 4 Georgia (-6.5): The wrong team is favored here. I don’t buy that JT Daniels is 100% following his knee injury last season or that he has the same ceiling as he did prior to it. Whether it’s Daniels or Stetson Bennett IV, Auburn’s defense won’t be threatened by an offense that struggled to find its sea legs. Auburn has its work cut out for it on offense, though. Quarterback Bo Nix looked better after some halftime adjustments last week, and there’s no doubt that coach Gus Malzahn and offensive coordinator Chad Morris held back much of the offense against Kentucky. Take those points, but you won’t need them. Auburn will win this game outright. Pick: Auburn (+6.5)



Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

78 responses to ““If you’re starting to wonder how Georgia can compete with Auburn at all…”

  1. Auburn “grad” Barrett Sallee picks Auburn to win. Wonders never cease to amaze.

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Dr. Sallee at it again.


  3. ApalachDawg aux Bruxelles

    I can’t wait to hear the excuses when the final scoreboard reads UGA 31- barn 20


    • Down Island Way

      Sorry…don’t see a pathway for the barners to put 20 points on the UGA scoreboard this saturday, (next year included)..#AUBURN SUCKS!

      Liked by 2 people

  4. Biggen

    I guess I’m alone in not being terribly worried about this game. That worries me…

    Liked by 3 people

    • Got Cowdog

      You are not alone. Georgia didn’t look that good against Arkansas, especially in the first half. If they have the same issues against aubrun they’ll get beaten badly.
      OTOH, If Kirby and Company get their shit together this week Georgia is more than talented enough to handle Gus’ team. UGA’s defense against Auburn’s offense will be the story, methinks. I’ll hold off talking shit until after the fight.
      I’m taking the under, too

      Liked by 4 people

      • Russ

        I’d take the under for sure, but Dawgs will cover easily. Our game against Arkansas gave Kirby exactly what he needed to get this team moving. All our flaws were laid out there and now he and the coaches know what to do to get ready for this Saturday. No, we won’t suddenly morph into the Joe Burrow LSU offense, but Monken will have a plan for SBIV to matriculate the ball down the field. Our defense will smother Nix and Auburn after they get their obligatory 1st quarter TD.

        Dawgs roll as usual over Auburn.

        Liked by 3 people

        • RangerRuss

          ”their obligatory 1st quarter TD”. Initially I was thinking the same thing. But then I was branded a bleeding heart. In order to remove the sting of that moniker I rationalized the donut by comparing this year’s Dawgs D with last year’s. It’s stronger and they were on their way to a shutout until the O buckled and Kirby went to pre-vent late. I’m counting on CKS and Monken not allowing that on Saturday.
          Auburn sucks and I do like driving in my truck.

          Liked by 1 person

    • You aren’t. Georgia is supremely talented and well coached. Auburn is good but they aren’t 2019 LSU. I don’t think Auburn has more talent, nor do I believe they’re better coached. They probably are better at QB right now, though. Just protect the damn ball.

      Liked by 2 people

  5. Skeptic Dawg

    We have issues on the offensive line. As Dawg fans we know all too well that you do not fix OL issues overnight. Add problems at QB and that’s makes for tough sledding folks. Playing the worst team in the SEC to open the season was a blessing and a curse. We learned a little about this team last weekend. We will learn a ton about this team on Saturday. I just don’t think that we will like what we learn.


    • Playing the worst team in the SEC to open the season…

      Non-snarky question: You think Arkansas is worse than Vandy?

      Liked by 1 person

      • Skeptic Dawg

        If Vandy is worse, it will be by the slightest of margins. You do not lose 20 straight conference games by being a good football team. That being said, based upon your question I can only assume you have S+P data to counter. My point still stands, Georgia opened the 2020 schedule with the best possible SEC opponent.


    • charlottedawg

      Well if you think we have no chance then vegas is effectively giving money away by favoring georgia by a TD. I’d believe in your conviction of your predictions a whole lot more if you put your money where your mouth is but why do I get the feeling you’re not that kinda guy?

      Liked by 3 people

      • Skeptic Dawg

        The problem with Vegas this year is that there is so little info available for them to accurately determine a line on this game. We don’t even know who the starting QB will be, nor what he will be capable of against a quality SEC opponent. As for my my convictions, they are based on poor OL play and unknowns at the the QB spot. As I stated above and as we have seen time and time again, OL issues are not fixed overnight. Replacing 3 guys along the offensive line is rough, and made even more difficult with the loss of 2 NFL tackles. I am not a believer in Stetson being the answer over the course of a 10 game SEC schedule. He can obviously provide a spark when called upon, but I just don’t see him being capable of shouldering the load over 4 quarters week in and week out. If you see it differently, that’s great.


        • JaxDawg

          On the poor o-line play, what do you make of the difference between the first and second half? If that big of a difference can be made with half time adjustments, it would seem like a week would be enough to improve on the second half performance.

          I’m more concerned with turnovers than I am o-line play. Auburn’s D may not be at the top, but it’s a step up for Arkansas, 1 bad turnover could easily be the difference.

          Liked by 1 person

      • PTC DAWG

        He just likes to bitch about UGA…did it all last year while we went 11-1


    • dawgtired7

      It would help if we knew more about UK and TxA&M. There just isn’t enough to go on right now. I would certainly put Arky very close to the bottom. I hope Saturday we play more like we did the 2nd half of last weeks game.

      Liked by 3 people

  6. “Outside of one-time Auburn commit George Pickens, it’s fair to wonder whether Georgia has any receivers that will threaten the Tigers downfield. Not that Kirby Smart will want Monken and the offense taking too many chances with a lesser offensive line and a lack of comfort at quarterback.”

    Kearis Jackson was our leading receiver last week (6 catches at 10 ypc). 12 different players caught passes. And we passed more than we ran. This statement makes no sense unless last week is considered irrelevant for this week.

    Liked by 6 people

  7. 79dawg

    Do professional bettors really look at the ypc stat and not take out sacks/fumbled snaps/garbage time? Just spitballing here, but I imagine our actual running stats look much better…


  8. barneydawg

    I really can’t believe any coach, Kirby, Gus or anyone, holds back when they are in danger of losing a game.

    Liked by 7 people

    • It reminds me of the Donnan years when sunshine pumpers would say “he’s only used 10 pages out of 400” and other nonsense (well, other than 1999, when he did have Quincy go out in the wishbone vs UT…but that didn’t end well.)

      Liked by 1 person

  9. Are we wearing black jerseys?

    Liked by 2 people

  10. TN Dawg

    I suspect ST may be important in this one.

    Camarda was masterful.

    Pod gives me an uneasy feeling. It’s not that I think it’s gonna require a 55 yard game winner, but early misses from makable distances seen historically to be hard core gut punches for us.

    I liked Mac, Jackson and Tyrique last week. Aggression and straight line running hitting seams.

    Blocked kick sealed the deal.

    If I’m ranking UGAs performance last week:

    1) ST
    2) D
    3) O

    Cochran may be a key this year, and so far he’s earned his money.

    Liked by 2 people

  11. Derek

    Now that we know our issues on offense, I think we can put together a game plan that will work. So long as bo nix isn’t putting up points in bunches I think we’ll be fine. Biggest issue is eliminating the run game and getting pressure with 4. If we can stone the run and consistently affect the qb with 4 we’ll be fine. It may be frustrating and ugly at times, but we’ll be fine.

    It would be nice if the qb who starts the game, finishes the game.

    Liked by 7 people

  12. PTC DAWG

    Bad advice on taking the points if you think AU wins outright, the money line is your friend..

    Liked by 1 person

  13. TN Dawg

    I’d love to see CKS come out ultra-aggressive on defensive play calling this week.

    I swear, maybe it’s my imagination, but it seems like Malzahn’s greatest success in tight games is always early when he is calling plays from the script.

    I think if we break tendencies and smack the quarterback around or pick him off early we own the first half and grind out victory, maybe even pull away when the play calling loses balance, in the second half.

    Liked by 1 person

    • … but it seems like Malzahn’s greatest success in tight games is always early when he is calling plays from the script.

      Only problem with that is, at least based on what I saw last week, it looks like he’s turned control of the offense over to Morris.


    • Derek

      No need to be fancy. Better to be sound.


      • I’m a singer, so I liken it to singing a simple song well, rather than trying to sing something complicated and crashing and burning.


        • rigger92

          I was a trumpet player. The pro’s do the simple stuff very well. Music translates to athletics from a mental and physical perspective very well. Gotta do the fundamentals at a high success rate, it’s where talent shows but a lot of people don’t see it.

          Liked by 2 people

  14. I can’t get a feel for this game right now. Recent history is on our side. They haven’t won in Athens since 2005, and it took a concussed safety who stayed in the game for that to happen. Much worse Georgia teams than this one have beaten Auburn at home (2016 is the most recent example). Other than the 2 losses in Auburn, under Smart and Richt, our defense has absolutely stoned the Auburn offense. OTOH, this Auburn team has a lot of talent (not as much as we do) with an experienced quarterback. We’re definitely catching them at the wrong time on the schedule (I would much rather be playing this game in the traditional November time slot). With no home field advantage to speak of, I hate this game as a home opener because I don’t think anyone knows what to expect with the team’s readiness to play.

    In its normal spot with normal circumstances, I would love the Dawgs and laying the points. Right now, I think Dawgs win but don’t cover.

    Liked by 1 person

    • That 2016 game is what I keep coming back to. That was a bad Oline (with a Rhode Island transfer manning a tackle position). This year’s line has to be better, almost by default (plus, no Nicholas St to almost lose to).
      Eason hadn’t even shown real flashes of greatness since the Vandy game by then, but did just enough, paired with great defense and solid special teams, to get a win.
      And Gus doesn’t score a lot in Athens (7, 7, and 10 his last 3 trips…you have to go back to his OC days to find him topping 20, and that was 2009)


  15. Teacher Martin

    Auburn will win convincingly, unfortunately. Once again UGA had all the hype only to disappoint it’s fans.


  16. I get that it’s part of the job, but these knee-jerk takes after one week drive me nuts. Especially this year, I feel like every team is going to be improving/changing exponentially week to week or, like the case with the Dawgs, half to half. Tons of young guys out on offense, shuffling of an inexperienced OL that seemed to click in the 2nd half. Honestly, I’m pretty bullish on our offense based on what I saw, but it obviously all comes down to getting guys the ball and giving the QB time and RBs some holes. I do feel like this game is going to be tight and I could see it going either way…feel like a turnover or special teams play could be the difference here (especially if it happens early).

    Liked by 4 people

  17. Randy Adams

    The writer might want to go back and watch the game: Kentucky loss because of turnovers. They won every statistical category. Auburn had 91 yards on the ground. And only managed 233 in the air. They won playing on a short field. Taking Auburn and the points is a suckers bet. Vegas knows what they are doing.

    Georgia wins this.

    Auburn vs Kentucky Stats:

    Total Yards:

    Kentucky 384. Auburn. 324

    1st Downs:

    Kentucky 21. Auburn 15

    Passing yards

    Kentucky 239. Auburn 233

    Rushing Yards

    Kentucky 145. Auburn 91

    Time of possession

    Kentucky 36:29. Auburn 23:31


    Kentucky 3. Auburn 0

    Liked by 9 people

  18. charlottedawg

    Our QB situation and o line scare the hell out of me but I learned a long time ago the guys who are willing to put their money behind their predictions are the most credible and usually the most accurate predictors. It’s true at the casino, it’s true in investing. If the line says we’re favored by a TD, who am I to disagree. Auburn students get to once again see their team lose to the school none of them could get into.

    I like driving my truck!

    Liked by 4 people

    • sniffer

      The line is only part of the story. Books are dependent on being balanced between the two betting sides. The line is a psychological marvel for the bettor more than a predictor of the outcome.


  19. stoopnagle

    Gosh, Mickey, I wonder how the team that’s 12-3 over the last 15 could possibly stay on the field with a team that hasn’t beaten them in Sanford Stadium since 2005?


  20. DaveinAZ

    “Quarterback Bo Nix looked better after some halftime adjustments last week, and there’s no doubt that coach Gus Malzahn and offensive coordinator Chad Morris held back much of the offense against Kentucky.”

    BS take is 100% fanboy crap. Somehow he noticed Nix improved in the second half but appears not to know our offense scored 32 points in the second half. And how does Auburn hold back in a game where they were outplayed?

    Maybe Gus held back several rabbit’s feet that he will use Saturday. Otherwise take UGA and the points.

    Liked by 4 people

  21. mp

    Line looks to be up to UGA -7


  22. TripleB

    I’m very concerned about this game. I don’t think our offense looked that good in the second half and I think Auburn’s defense will be much faster, especially in the backfield. If we can’t run, I wonder if Bennett will have the same success throwing against Auburn.

    Obviously, I hope I’m wrong. I am a pessimist, so maybe I’m not seeing the bright side. The line doesn’t make me feel comfortable. I think that is set just to get 50% on each side. People always like UGA, as well they should!

    Liked by 1 person

    • Sure, the line is set to get the money balanced. It doesn’t change the fact that the guys in Vegas who are paid not to lose the house’s money believe we will straight up. We may get upset, but that’s what it will be … an upset.


  23. akascuba

    My biggest concern is based on my past history watching games he`s played in and G day if SB3 starts. Kevin Steele I expect to blitz early and often. Maybe my memory is off I seem to remember SB3 likes to throw into coverage rather than throw it away when pressured. Last Saturday for the most part in the 3rd quarter he had a stable pocket. When he rolls out he cuts the field in half.. Keeping our QB upright in a clean pocket I believe is the key to the game. if this happens the run game improves. Its up to Matt Luke to get the OL working together. We are lucky this is not last years AU DL.


    • On the flip side, Auburn is lucky that our 2 tackles and what would have been a 3rd starter left Athens. The problem they have is whether their offensive line can stand up against our front 6 or 7.

      Liked by 3 people

    • Russ

      Yeah, he has to fight his inner Joe Cox. Avoid the turnovers and move the ball at least some and we’ll be fine. I don’t see Auburn having a lot of offensive success against our defense.

      Liked by 1 person

  24. practicaldawg

    I think the team that is on the plus side of the turnover battle wins this game. Simple as that.


  25. CB

    “The Bulldogs defense is surprisingly passive. It doesn’t generate much havoc in the form of sacks, tackles for loss, passes defensed and interceptions.”

    I surmise he’s harkening back to last season as the dawgs turned in a 3 int performance in the opener.

    Liked by 1 person