This betting piece on Saturday’s game isn’t quite the Georgia slam the quote in the header sounds like. At least not completely.
Whether the Tigers face Daniels, Bennett IV or Mathis on Saturday probably is immaterial. The Bulldogs have suffered significant losses on the offensive line in recent seasons and ran for just 2.9 yards per carry against Arkansas.
Outside of one-time Auburn commit George Pickens, it’s fair to wonder whether Georgia has any receivers that will threaten the Tigers downfield. Not that Kirby Smart will want Monken and the offense taking too many chances with a lesser offensive line and a lack of comfort at quarterback.
The defense gets some praise.
… consider the Bulldogs defense. Georgia features eight former five-star players on that side of the ball, the most of any team, and ranks No. 1 in SP+ defense.
The Bulldogs defense is surprisingly passive. It doesn’t generate much havoc in the form of sacks, tackles for loss, passes defensed and interceptions. Georgia plays disciplined, scheme-first football designed to prevent big plays. You may get a few first downs, but you’re rarely going to gash it.
The Bulldogs allowed just 11 plays of 30+ yards in 2019, second-best nationally.
Basically, he thinks both defenses are going to have the upper hand Saturday, which makes taking the under (the over/under started at 38.5 points and moved to 45) the smart pick.
Unders are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, cashing by an average of 11 points per game. Auburn-Georgia has produced 35, 37 and 35 total points in the last three years.
Here’s a chart of the team’s last 10 games:
Kentucky-Auburn and Georgia-Arkansas cashed for under bettors on Saturday, producing 42 and 47 points, respectively.
The Auburn-Georgia total sits at 45. All due respect to the Razorbacks and Wildcats, but the Tigers and Bulldogs offenses face much bigger challenges this week.
Take under 45 as well.
You know what else is 8-2 over those ten games? Georgia is. That’s why I assume he’s only betting on Auburn to cover the spread, rather than win outright.
For the latter, I leave you in Barrett Sallee’s hands.
No. 7 Auburn at No. 4 Georgia (-6.5): The wrong team is favored here. I don’t buy that JT Daniels is 100% following his knee injury last season or that he has the same ceiling as he did prior to it. Whether it’s Daniels or Stetson Bennett IV, Auburn’s defense won’t be threatened by an offense that struggled to find its sea legs. Auburn has its work cut out for it on offense, though. Quarterback Bo Nix looked better after some halftime adjustments last week, and there’s no doubt that coach Gus Malzahn and offensive coordinator Chad Morris held back much of the offense against Kentucky. Take those points, but you won’t need them. Auburn will win this game outright. Pick: Auburn (+6.5)