Deserve’s got nothing to do with it. Or at least it shouldn’t.

Food for thought from Brian Fremeau:

Selecting a playoff based on “most deserving” rather than “best” is obviously a judgment call, and one that I honestly don’t think is a terrible idea in concept. Since teams play very different schedules every year, there will always be valid arguments to be made around the selection margins, and we don’t have (and may never have) a particularly egalitarian set of playoff-qualifying standards in college football. It’s one of the sport’s enduring … charms. I’m also more in favor of a selection committee process than a computer formula (or combination of formulae) determining the field, so long as the committee can be trusted to be well-informed and reasonably consistent in its deliberations and selections. The committee has new representation every year, and they are by no means infallible, but I think they’ve done a fair job every season in meeting that well-informed and reasonably consistent standard, especially as it relates to the playoff field itself.

Perhaps it’s unfair then to harp on the apparent inconsistencies with the 2020 selection committee rankings. Given the extraordinary disruptions to the typical schedule, and the cancellation of all but a few decent non-conference games, can we fault the committee for applying a different standard than in previous seasons?

While it’s striking to hear that coming from an advanced stats guru (and a guy I really respect), I do get where he’s coming from in the specific context of 2020.  The pandemic, along with the bumbling we’ve seen from some of the P5 conferences, has made a hash of scheduling this season and that’s certainly made the selection committee’s job more challenging.  Maybe you can make a case that some of the harsh criticism that’s gone their way is unfair.

Then again…

All this being said, the term “most deserving” is a dicey one to use in a pandemic-plagued season, especially when teams were often not able to control whether they were able to play a given week, or even whether to start their season in August versus in late-October. I’m not really going to try to make an affirmative argument for Coastal Carolina to make a four-team playoff field over Ohio State, nor am I going to use 2020 data to make an argument for or against future playoff field expansion. I do think the committee’s primary faults are evidenced by their modest to severe suppression of the on-field achievements of Group of 5 teams. Wins against good teams, no matter how you define it, seem to matter more to the committee if they are won by Power 5 teams than if they are won by Group of 5 teams. The fact that the Big 12’s two-loss champion may squeeze into the playoff picture if chaos reigns this weekend, while the Sun Belt’s potentially undefeated champion will most certainly not, is the best evidence of this committee bias problem we’ve had in the playoff era.

This reinforces the point I made earlier this week.  If anything, this season has only exacerbated the selection committee’s tendency — call it bias, if that makes you feel better — to favor the P5 over the mid-majors, because… well, you know why.  But also, as I pointed out, that’s really played out in a way that doesn’t affect the bigger picture.

Chaos may yet reign this weekend, but we’re most likely to end up with a playoff field consisting of Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Notre Dame when the dust settles. If this comes to pass, there will be little dispute that the committee “got it right” and selected the four best teams. But we should be willing to admit that measuring “best” this year is based significantly on our prior assumptions about the relative strength of teams and conferences.

I still strongly believe it’s in the best interest of the CFP to come up with a delivery system that does a better job of eliminating, or at least strongly reducing, the appearance of bias and conflicts of interest.  But I’m not going to hold my breath that’s coming any time soon.

31 Comments

Filed under BCS/Playoffs

31 responses to “Deserve’s got nothing to do with it. Or at least it shouldn’t.

  1. I don’t believe ND is one of the 4 best teams, and the Greater Anderson Cow College is going to show it tomorrow. anOSU is probably one of the best 4 teams, but their resume sucks. I personally wouldn’t have them in the 4.

    Liked by 4 people

  2. 79dawg

    The only “non-biased” or “conflict-free” method for determining the playoff participants would be to have 4 or 8 conferences, and allow the champs (and runner-ups maybe) of each of those conferences into the playoffs, automatically, and everyone else is SOL.
    AP voters are biased and have conflicts, the people who design the computer programs are biased as to what “qualities” they value and how much weight to give them, and the members of the committee are full of conflicts and highly biased….

    Liked by 1 person

    • I would agree with you. A champions only 8-team playoff is the only way I would support expansion. The problem is that would require such a large amount of conference realignment that it would make it difficult if not impossible.

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      • Bay Area Dawg

        I’ve always liked the idea of the conference champions of the Power 5 all receive a bid. The highest ranked team in the Group of 5 gets a bid and then you have two at-large bids.

        Liked by 1 person

        • I’ve done the analysis going back to the BcS era using your methodology, and I admit it’s a pretty good compromise (and it’s probably the way expansion is going to happen). There are many years where the G5 team has no business in the 8. I’m not a fan of wild cards (even if it benefits us).

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          • Bay Area Dawg

            I am not the biggest support of the wild card mostly due to the Leprechauns. They would mostly likely get one of the wild card bids each year. In support of the wildcard argument, you could make a strong argument that two of the top 8 teams each year are from the same conference, but as a counter most likely they have played and lost to the eventual conference champion at some point during the season.

            I’ve had this argument numerous times with my friends and we can round and round.

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      • MGW

        Exactly. Why would so many top tier teams stay in the SEC in that scenario? We’d annually have at least two teams worthy of a spot in an 8 team playoff(usually more). And we’re just going to sit back and watch whatever objectively inferior flunky from the pac 12 and whatever other conferences out there back in like they’ve earned it? Shit no.

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  3. Ozam

    Trying to create structure and fairness around something as loosely connected as the college football landscape is fruitless.

    I fear, in ESPN’s effort to push ratings, and the conference’s money grab, we will destroy what imho is at its essence, a great regional sport.

    Liked by 2 people

  4. MGW

    I think one concession the P5 should be forced to make is some sort of penalty for refusing to play the best G5 teams. If the argument is going to be “yeah but who have you played?,” you can’t be able to say “no” so easily when these teams offer to schedule games. Similarly, when teams like UCF get a little big for their britches and refuse a 2 for one, they should be punished as well. I don’t know how you accomplish that, but it’s perfectly valid for G5 teams to complain that they have no meaningful access to the playoff. Right now it would take an absolutely perfect storm to get one of them in.

    You’d have to have that team schedule at least 2 P5 teams who turn out to be top ten at the time the games are played, and the rest of their conference at least be respectable the year those game are played. To accomplish that, they’d have to be utterly hopeless at the time the games are scheduled because that’s the only way you’re going to get at least two of those teams to schedule you; if they think they’re scheduling a cupcake. Once you’re peaking like Boise or UCF have before (as in for a few years with some consistency), nobody is going to schedule you right now. At the same time, when something like UCF rejecting Florida’s offer happens, they should be punished as well.

    Basically something like, “Ohio State’s got some good wins, but they officially refused to play Boise State in a two for one, so they’re getting docked a good win.” Or “UCF has one good win and they’re undefeated, but they refused UF this year, so they’re out.”

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    • MGW

      Also, forced rematches of bowl games the following season is a way to get some good non-con games for G5 teams. Winner of the bowl hosts. I think the week before rivalry week would be appropriate to set aside for that purpose. Get paired with Montana in a bowl? Well go win, or guess where you’re headed next October

      Liked by 1 person

      • Tony BarnFart

        While I’m hesitant to contractually write-in too much structure, I like how the NFL scheduling fills out when two divisions are NOT scheduled for a full round-robin: i.e. how you finished the year before matches up with who you play. I would not be opposed to any number of scenarios, maybe have 1 p5-p5 matchup per year rotating and then do G5-P5 more regionally (the SEC rotating the MAC does not for “tradition”). This stupid “risk-reward” thing is stale. Just play the game and we don’t have to argue about who is the hypocrite.

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  5. Greg

    If you are gonna guess on the best 4, go back to the BCS system…..seems better to me. It would definitely make it more interesting.

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  6. Jim Cook

    PERFECT year for an expanded playoff. The results would be greatly expanded revenue in a revenue challenged year.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. originaluglydawg

    How many games is too few? I can hear their apologists in the sports media someday saying: “While it’s true that Ohio State hasn’t played a single game this year, they looked fantastic in their Spring Game. I just don’t see how we leave them out.” And as usual, the media is focused on getting ND in. I hope East Auburn University beats them unmercifully.

    Liked by 3 people

  8. stoopnagle

    Centralize out of conference scheduling.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. Clemson v ND round 3? And only way to delay that is Clemson v Bama in the semi? I’m routing for ND tomorrow. Knocks out Dabo and Goldilocks, let’s Bama thrash ND, creates chaos over the 4 spot (TAMU?) and a final that will show us if Justin Fields was the answer for Bama after all.

    Liked by 3 people

  10. Tony BarnFart

    “The best” vs. “Most deserving” reaches an intellectual dead-end for me since we fundamentally have a moving “number of losses” threshold that absolutely brings “most deserving” into the equation. Otherwise, a 2 loss UGA with essentially a brand new offense might be talked about as a Top 4 “best”, but we’re not because….we’re not “deserving” with our 2 losses. Meanwhile, Coastal or Cincinnati’s eye-test (“best”) threshold is much higher than whatever Texas A&M’s “deserving” threshold is. If Notre Dame takes a beating from Clemson with Lawrence at QB, I’ll be disappointed if they get in.

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    • MGW

      Can’t take the current system and then use “deserving” as a criteria. But some structural changes to scheduling to make that more fair would be nice. Then those other teams have a better opportunity to actually show whether they’re one of the best.

      Instead they’ll just move to 8 teams and call it a day cause that’s way easier. Whoever the hot G5 team of the year is will get in but they’ll be the 8 seed and get destroyed by the 1 seed and that’ll be that.

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  11. biggusrickus

    Spare me the bias nonsense. Coastal Carolina’s Big 12 scalp is fucking Kansas, who they beat by 15. The only team to beat them by fewer and to score fewer points was Texas Tech. All but three of Kansas’s opponents beat them by 30 or more points.

    Liked by 1 person