We are exactly two months away from FBS football kicking off on a Saturday afternoon. And the release of PFF’s College Football Preview Magazine makes this the perfect time to highlight the best betting opportunities on FBS futures odds.
Let’s dive into the best bets to make based on PFF’s vast college database that powers our NCAA Greenline product and our latest season-long simulation. We will walk through every conference, highlighting the teams with the most value based on market expectation.
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Alabama and Georgia — the usual suspects leading the conference — are expected to finish atop the SEC, combining for 68% of the implied probability to win the conference title. Both blue-blood schools have over a 50% probability of winning their respective divisions.
Five of the top 10 teams with the best odds to win the national championship play in the SEC, making it once again the deepest conference in college football. Whichever team emerges from the conference title game will be the odds-on favorite to receive the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.
Coolio. So what’s the best bet for the Dawgs, given that lead in? Winning the division? Making the CFP? What?
Win Total: 10.5 -134 | 105
Conference Odds: 28.6%
Playoff Chances: 25.0%
Championship Odds: 12.5%
Best bet: Georgia under 10.5 wins +105
The story of the 2021 Georgia Bulldogs will come down to the play of quarterback J.T. Daniels, who has yet to live up to his five-star recruit status. Daniels has put together only two games with an 80.0-plus PFF passing grade in 16 college starts. Georgia isn’t exactly easing into their 2021 schedule, either, with a neutral site contest to start the season against Clemson. Georgia is currently a four-point underdog and doesn’t look to have many one-sided matchup wins on paper.
From a betting perspective, one of the easiest ways to play the Bulldogs is on their under win total, which provides zero wiggle room in the event they lose in Week 1. The betting market seems set on Daniels playing closer to his recruitment status than his true performance over the past three years. If he once again fails to deliver on that promise, then the Bulldogs should fall well short of their win total. PFF’s simulation has them with a median win total of 9.5, which offers plenty of value given the +105 price on their under 10.5 betting line.