TFW the buildup is better than the punchline

Interesting, PFF.

We are exactly two months away from FBS football kicking off on a Saturday afternoon. And the release of PFF’s College Football Preview Magazine makes this the perfect time to highlight the best betting opportunities on FBS futures odds.

Let’s dive into the best bets to make based on PFF’s vast college database that powers our NCAA Greenline product and our latest season-long simulation. We will walk through every conference, highlighting the teams with the most value based on market expectation.

Tell me more.

Alabama and Georgia — the usual suspects leading the conference — are expected to finish atop the SEC, combining for 68% of the implied probability to win the conference title. Both blue-blood schools have over a 50% probability of winning their respective divisions.

Five of the top 10 teams with the best odds to win the national championship play in the SEC, making it once again the deepest conference in college football. Whichever team emerges from the conference title game will be the odds-on favorite to receive the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.

Coolio.  So what’s the best bet for the Dawgs, given that lead in?  Winning the division?  Making the CFP?  What?


Win Total: 10.5 -134 | 105
Conference Odds: 28.6%
Playoff Chances: 25.0%
Championship Odds: 12.5%

Best bet: Georgia under 10.5 wins +105

The story of the 2021 Georgia Bulldogs will come down to the play of quarterback J.T. Daniels, who has yet to live up to his five-star recruit status. Daniels has put together only two games with an 80.0-plus PFF passing grade in 16 college starts. Georgia isn’t exactly easing into their 2021 schedule, either, with a neutral site contest to start the season against Clemson. Georgia is currently a four-point underdog and doesn’t look to have many one-sided matchup wins on paper.

From a betting perspective, one of the easiest ways to play the Bulldogs is on their under win total, which provides zero wiggle room in the event they lose in Week 1. The betting market seems set on Daniels playing closer to his recruitment status than his true performance over the past three years. If he once again fails to deliver on that promise, then the Bulldogs should fall well short of their win total. PFF’s simulation has them with a median win total of 9.5, which offers plenty of value given the +105 price on their under 10.5 betting line.

Gee, thanks.


Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

11 responses to “TFW the buildup is better than the punchline

  1. theotherdoug

    UGA needs JT to be elite when we play Clemson. For the rest of the season Good but not great is enough.


  2. Sweet D

    Upon further reflection, I’m not sure this wasn’t written by a long suffering Georgia fan.


  3. Hogbody Spradlin

    With apologies to Harry Truman, we need a one handed prognosticator.


  4. How can anyone look at the last 4 games of the year and his 1 game of his sophomore year as anything but good? Did he play like a 5-star as a freshman? No, but how many 5-star QBs look like that as freshmen?

    Liked by 3 people

  5. Greg

    I get the questions on Daniels, need to see a full season and maybe some tougher competition…..but the potential is definitely there. Also needs to stay healthy and upright.

    On a side note, REALLY hate the “blue-blood” reference….they about wore that out in the Cincinnati game.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. kingcmo2000

    I think it’s fair. If your QB isn’t playing well enough to go in the top half of the first round then you probably aren’t winning the big prize. Uga with average QB play will probably lose to Clemson and go about 10-1 the rest of the way. It will be a damn good team, just not top 5. As JT goes, so goes uga’s title odds.


    • siskey

      I agree as to Clemson but I’d look at UGA 2017-2019 and say that the QB doesn’t have to be a first rounder to go over especially against this schedule. Florida is going to take a big step back, Auburn starts the 20 game Hartsin era and UT/SC etc al are garbage.


  7. ZeroPOINTzero

    Numbers without a lot thought behind them.


  8. Hobnail_Boot

    They also projected Newman as a Heisman contender.

    Nothing to see here.

    Liked by 2 people

  9. Clayton Joiner

    Not sure I understand this point. Supposedly we have an incredibly easy schedule, outside of Charlotte & Jax, what am I missing here?

    “Georgia is currently a four-point underdog and doesn’t look to have many one-sided matchup wins on paper”