SEC win projections

Here’s Bill Connelly’s projected win chart ($$) for the SEC:

Of particular interest is what he says about two of those teams.

Tennessee and LSU. Beyond the typical “bet the under on the top teams and the over on the bottom teams” odds that SP+ (and plenty of other metrics) tend to provide, the strongest odds that SP+ has to offer are picking Tennessee over 6 and LSU under 8.5.

Both projections strongly buck conventional wisdom. Tennessee had a chaotic coaching search (in light of a potential NCAA investigation) and throttled the transfer portal with guys coming in and out. Meanwhile, the general narrative assumption is that LSU will rebound quite a bit from last year’s miserable title defense.

To be honest, it gives me the willies even thinking of putting money on either of those picks. But at the very least, let this serve as a reminder of two things: (1) Josh Heupel’s first Tennessee team has a pretty sturdy foundation of talent despite all the turnover (especially if he actually homes in on a starting quarterback at some point), and (2) LSU still has a lot of questions to answer before a rebound can occur.

Eeeeeyeeah, maybe.  Not sure how much I’m buying that talent foundation in Knoxville, and, beyond that, you always have to wonder how a team reacts during the season to the sanctions hammer falling.  I find myself more strongly in alignment with his LSU misgivings because you never know how Coach O’s coaching staff du jour works out in a given season.

By the way, it sure looks like the thinnest deal there is picking ‘Bama and the over.  Bill’s actually projecting Georgia’s conference win total to be a smidge higher than Alabama’s, which, admittedly, says more about the two divisions than it does about the two teams.


Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

27 responses to “SEC win projections

  1. ericstrattonrushchairmandamngladtomeetyou

    I’ve looked at Tennessee‘s schedule and IMHO the most likely result this season is 6-6. That’s not because of Tennessee though. It’s because the OOC schedule is a joke and they get South Carolina and Vanderbilt in conference.


  2. biggusrickus

    Tennessee has a talent foundation relative to Vandy and South Carolina, but that’s about it. Being on par with Kentucky and Missouri, more or less, doesn’t call for betting the over. If their offense doesn’t gel quickly, they could easily drop two of their winnable games to Missouri and Ole Miss. South Carolina would even be questionable. I also don’t know how good a head coach Heupel actually is. He inherited a relatively loaded team at UCF and trended downward from there. He’s walking into a much worse situation at Tennessee.


  3. stoopnagle

    I go by Stoopnagle for a damned reason. Here’s my take on the Vols:

    Wins (4): Bowling Green, Tennessee Tech, South Alabama, Vanderbilt
    Losses (6): at Florida, at Missouri, Ole Miss, at Alabama, at Kentucky, Georgia
    Toss (2): Pitt, South Carolina

    Split the diff: 5-7, take the under. LOL.

    Liked by 4 people

  4. jcdawg83

    What 2 games does Georgia lose?


    • Bulldawg Bill

      JCD, Just playing devil’s advocate, Clemson and a bed-crapper to be played later.


      • jcdawg83

        2 losses and we will be out of the playoff, even if we win the SEC unless there is another conference champ with 2 losses. Winning the SEC and not making the playoff because of an out of conference loss and a bed crapping loss would be a classic “Georgia” thing.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Bulldawg Bill

          Exactly. That is why I consider CFP expansion crucial to the SEC’s representation in the playoffs. Without it, UGA, bama, LSU, aTm, Okie, Aubie, and Tex, sit there and beat each other out of the picture. YMMV.

          Liked by 1 person

  5. HirsuteDawg

    I’m sitting back waiting for the buttchugers to struggle with Bowling Green . Would love to see a 5 or 4 win season for them. I DO NOT expect this game to be must watch fare for the football enthusiast.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. bmacdawg87

    We haven’t gone undefeated in conference play since 1982. It’d be nice to not let that streak get to 40.


  7. bmacdawg87

    Was listening to Dusty and Danny this morning on ESPNU Radio on XM (I know, barf). But they unveiled their #1 team preseason (Dusty’s as they alternated picks all the way down) and it was Georgia. I could feel Danny boy writhing in his chair through the radio. They even got Stinch on the phone to rub it in his face a little more. It was glorious.

    Liked by 3 people

  8. CB

    Tennessee lost a lot more to the portal than it got back in terms of talent. Which means they’ll be even less talented than last years team. Maybe they’ve found an answer at qb?