This week’s meeting of the Overachievers Club is now in session.

I have seen more than a few folks suggest this week that Saturday’s game reminds them of two previous Georgia games, the 2017 Mississippi State game and the 2015 one against Alabama.  Apparently, Arkansas is like MSU in the former and Georgia in the latter.

Honestly, I’m not feeling it.  That 2017 Mississippi State team’s rep coming in was built on a whipping of an LSU team that lost a couple of weeks later to Troy and finished 9-4.  Arkansas’ resume already has two wins over top-20 teams.  In 2015, Georgia actually found itself as the favorite in several quarters; nobody in Vegas sees the Hogs in a similar light.

But the real reason I’m not seeing it is because there’s been a complete absence of cockiness and trash talk emanating from Fayetteville this week.  Sam Pittman isn’t Dan Mullen.  And I doubt his team makes a pre-game effort to stare down the Dawgs, as Georgia tried with ‘Bama.  (Yeah, that worked well.)

Some of that — probably a lot of that — is because of the personal relationship Pittman and Smart share.  There’s too much respect flowing both ways for either to let their teams show their ass.

But there’s another factor that I think is in play here.  Arkansas under Pittman is an impressive 11-3 against the spread.  And, if anything, that’s intensified in 2021.  The topper is that, per Bill Connelly ($$), Georgia’s been overachieving, too.

Georgia Bulldogs: 75% vs. the spread, +14.4 points per game. The only time the Bulldogs didn’t cover this year was when they allowed South Carolina (+31.5) a garbage-time touchdown to turn a 40-6 cover into a 40-13 loss. The Dawgs have been rampant and just passed Alabama for No. 1 in both SP+ and ESPN’s FPI.

Arkansas Razorbacks: 100% vs. the spread, +13.3 points per game. The Hogs were projected to improve, but they’ve done more than that — they’ve already taken down both Texas and Texas A&M, and they’re 4-0 for the first time in 18 years. Now they get a shot at fellow overachiever Georgia.

Georgia’s already beaten the spread by more than 25 points in two games this season and the Dawgs have absolutely trashed Connelly’s SP+ as a predictor, missing Georgia games by an average of 16.4.

Both of these teams are way beyond living up to expectations so far this season.  Trash talking that kind of effort seems pretty silly.  In other words, save the comparisons for another time.


Filed under Arkansas Is Kind Of A Big Deal, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

40 responses to “This week’s meeting of the Overachievers Club is now in session.

  1. Ran A

    I’ve read that stuff too… I do not think Georgia will blow them out quickly. Just think that Georgia will methodically open up a lead and will simply be the better team and over four quarters of play, end up winning by three TD’S. It’s going to feel similar to Clemson, with the difference being the lead increasing by 7 each quarter, with Clemson getting a TD back in the 4th quarter.

    Just do not see this team coming in being able to hang with Georgia. Emotion can take you a long way, but this Georgia team ain’t playing around.

    Dawgs by 21.

    Liked by 4 people

  2. We really did try to fight Bama in the tunnel before the 2015 game.

    That actually happened.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. I see it being fairly tight in the first half. Arky will try to keep us between the 20’s and hope for self-inflicted wounds like turnovers, penalties and negative yardage plays slowing our momentum. Our D can handle their running game with some adjustments to stop their running QBs. Then we pour it on as we adjust and they wear down in the second half. Vegas has this right…Dawgs cover, barely.

    Liked by 2 people

  4. For your readers reference…posted this on the other thread

    Liked by 6 people

  5. Russ

    If both teams play a clean game, I think we wear them down in the second half with our depth, but 18 points is a lot to cover. I’m thinking 10-14 at best. If either team starts making mistakes then anything can happen. But I’m expecting a clean game from two well-coached teams.

    Liked by 5 people

    • originaluglydawg

      Me too, Russ. I’m looking for a ten point win..but I’ll take a W anyway we get it (with the exception of the Auburn/Zebra Cartel’s way).

      Liked by 2 people

    • Down Island Way

      Should this game have been scheduled in arkyville, maybe 10-14 winning margin…UGA football depth will be the dagger, that and #18’s condition…UGA “OC” already knows (ish) the arky scheme on d, cause at that point, UGA football “O” will be dishing the issue, arky will have to adjust & rescheme to catch up, UGA special teams play will be huge, loud and proud fans will be huge…it’s week 5, arky is next, that’s all…

      Liked by 1 person

  6. godawgs1701

    The Dawgs will cover this spread, they’ll cover whatever stupid number gets put up next week for the Auburn game, and then they’re gonna let Kentucky cover in a loss. And then things get super interesting.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. mg4life0331

    I’m not worried about this game. Our bed shittings are always a surprise.

    Liked by 2 people

  8. RangerRuss

    It will be a hard fought first half. However, Sam Pittman is no fool and Kirby Smart isn’t an asshole. Rather than attempt a futile comeback or egregious blowout both coaches will unload their benches in the 4th quarter.
    Enjoy the game fellow Dawg fans.

    Liked by 3 people

  9. biggusrickus

    The only thing that would surprise is an outright loss by Georgia, but I could see the spread ranging anywhere from 7 to 30 depending on a few factors, the health of Jefferson and turnovers being the main two.

    I’m not sure that wins over Texas and Texas A&M are any more telling than that blowout over LSU was in 2017. Both teams were probably overranked. It’s also an awful lot to ask of Arkansas to go from one physical and emotional game to another, especially one against a much better opponent.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Russ

      Texas has a pretty good offense and Arkansas shut them down. Then Texas scored 56 (against Rice – big whoop) and 70 against previously unbeaten Texas Tech. So the Texas win by Arkansas impressed me. Then the Arkansas offense managed to score against a decent Aggie defense (even with their QB hurt). I watched both of the games and Arkansas gave solid efforts.

      I do think we’re better than either of the Texas teams and have more weapons than either. I think that will ultimately be the difference.

      Liked by 1 person

      • biggusrickus

        I actually think Arkansas is pretty good, for what it’s worth. I just think this might be the best Georgia team I’ve seen. This month will either bear that out, or I’ll look like an overly optimistic idiot.

        Liked by 2 people

    • iusedtopostasmikecooley

      I’m ambivalent about their wins over the Texas teams as well. They might mean something but I’m not convinced they do. I don’t think Arkansas sucks by any means but it does seem like folks have let a narrative take root mighty fast. If they lose a close one or God forbid get a win Saturday I’ll know they’re a pretty dang good team. I’m not sure what anyone really knows about them right now though.

      Liked by 2 people

  10. Texas Dawg

    I have the feeling that this is going to be a slugfest. I hope I’m wrong and we win handily by at least a couple of touch downs. I think this will come down to UGA having superior depth and just wearing them down.

    Liked by 4 people

  11. rigger92

    I think it will be a slugfest too. I can’t dismiss the team speed and power we have as an advantage though. It’s their first road game of the year too and I am sure it will be loud, that will help us get out to a good start.

    But, coach Luke, time to earn your paycheck. Pull the trigger on the line and make it work so that we can run the ball consistently.

    Liked by 3 people

  12. theorginaldawgabides

    Actually, this particular game reminds me of 2018 at Kentucky. They had a senior-laden, run heavy team with a close loss at A&M their only blemish. There was a lot of chirping from their fans and talking heads about an upset. We went in there took care of business and won by 17. That’s what I’m expecting this week.

    Liked by 3 people

  13. ASEF

    Going to be a great game. Definitely one of the sport’s best regular season offerings, maybe it’s best when all is said and done.

    Been awhile since I’ve been this intrigued by a regular season game. I knew Clemson had regressed since last year (just had no idea how much) and wasn’t too worried about it. That game was actually much closer than I anticipated.

    This one features two very confident teams playing at a really high level. Georgia has a clear talent advantage. How does it leverage that advantage?

    Liked by 1 person

  14. iusedtopostasmikecooley

    To me it comes down to a question, can Arkansas’ offensive line consistently block Georgia’s front seven? Until I see it happen I can’t be sold on the idea that Georgia will be in any kind of trouble with these guys.

    Liked by 2 people

    • The Truth

      I think the reverse of your question is mine: Can UGA’s offensive line consistently block Arky’s front seven? I think we can light them up in the passing game, but not if they’re teeing off on JT because passing is our only option.


  15. uga97

    We need to beat the everything sausage out of Ark. Then send a tweet to Texas: #LastCall?

    Liked by 1 person

  16. Matthew McKinney

    Well said


  17. 69Dawg

    This is not a paid advertisement but get over to Youtube and watch Brook Austin’s Film study of the Arkansas offense. He shows just what we have to do to win the game. First don’t look for us to pass rush against them. Maybe off the edges but the running QB can hurt us if we do too much. Second they run some of the craziest offensive plays I’ve ever seen. Misdirection with reverses and all sorts of blocking angles. He basically said that this crazy old Baylor offense will require total eye discipline from the D. Follow the ball and play your assignments. He said think playing the triple option without the cut blocks. Our ability to tackle will be key. we will know early if their O is rolling. They score early and depend on their D to stop everyone. Tonight he puts up the Arkansas Defense and what it does really well.