Phil Steele’s got a post up at his blog about which college teams will lose the most to this year’s NFL draft.
He starts with this premise:
After several years of research I have found that almost 7 out of every 10 teams that rank among the top in the NCAA in players drafted struggle the next year and have a weaker record. I call it the Draft Day Party Hangover Effect.
The bad news is that Georgia suffers from the 19th biggest binge on his list. The good news is that there are several teams on Georgia’s schedule, along with some other SEC schools, which will have partied harder:
- Florida, 1st
- Alabama, 5th
- Tennessee, 6th
- Georgia Tech, 8th
- LSU, 9th
- Ole Miss, 16th
It’s interesting to tie this into Steele’s list of returning starters in the SEC.
OFF DEF ST TOTAL Arkansas 9* 7 2 18 Georgia 10 6 2 18 Mississippi St 7 8 2 17 South Carolina 8* 7 2 17 Auburn 7 8 1 16 Florida 6 7 2 15 Kentucky 5* 7 1 13 Tennessee 4 7 2 13 LSU 6* 4 2 12 Mississippi 4 6 1 11 Vanderbilt 5* 5 1 11 Alabama 8* 2 0 10
Florida loses a bunch of talent, but is upper-middle of the pack in terms of returning starters. That would suggest to me that the falloff may not be as severe as some predict for the Gators in 2010 – although there will be some. Alabama, on the other hand, looks like it faces a more daunting task than perhaps is acknowledged. And I’m surprised that LSU isn’t being scrutinized more about its numbers.
Anyway you look at it, the math for Tennessee basically sucks.
Then there’s Georgia Tech, about which Steele has this to say:
Georgia Tech has had 22 players drafted in the last ten years which ranks them 8th in the ACC. This year that number could significantly change as the Yellow Jackets could lose as many as 5 players to the draft including highly regarded WR Demaryius Thomas and DE Derrick Morgan who both have the opportunity to get drafted in the 1st round this year. RB Jonathan Dwyer will probably go in the 2nd round while FS Morgan Burnett will probably go in the 3rd round easily giving the Jackets their most points in over a decade!
So the Jackets lose their most talented bunch of players in more than ten years, but they do return the most starters in the ACC. Paul Johnson, also. Smells like back-to-back conference titles, right? (Please make sure your sarcasm detectors are turned on.)
I’d say the good news outweighs the bad, if you’re a Georgia fan.