Paul Myerberg looks at the remaining schedules of the 20 P5 one-loss or unbeaten teams and rates Georgia’s the third-easiest of the bunch.
3. No. 3 Georgia (7-0)
Toughest games left: at Auburn, at Georgia Tech
The rivalry game with Florida on Oct. 28 is bound to get interesting, but Georgia’s toughest matchups come on the road: at Auburn on Nov. 11 and at Georgia Tech to cap the regular season Nov. 25. But this is the sort of schedule that should have fans dreaming of a matchup with unbeaten Alabama in early December to decide the SEC championship.
Tech tougher than the Gators? That ain’t right.
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“Tech tougher than the Gators?”
Does make some sense if you compare them in terms of offense. Gators haven’t exactly been a powerhouse moving the ball when they really need to. Tech, on the other hand, can be hard to stop. I know we’re playing much better defense this year but, last year’s Tech game is a good illustration.
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It ain’t right. Y’all, we can take nothing for granted in Jacksonville. Dawgs have to go down there determined. I’ve been waiting for this game. Next Saturday we will know for sure if we’ve turned the corner from pretender to contender.
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Exactly, Stoop…exactly.
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The offense’s inability to score/not turn the ball over is why we lost in ’14 and ’16 and why we barely scraped by in ’15…
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The author of that analysis should’ve looked more closely at what the landscape could be when we go up against scarolina and especially Kentucky. I know we should be favored but dang, we’ve got a lot more than 2 tough opponents left especially when what the games will mean for the SEC race.
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I know this isn’t exactly definitive, but here’s how Sagarin ranks the rest of the schedule:
Florida 35
S Car 41
Auburn 11
Kentucky 63
Ga Tech 21
ESPN’s FPI follows a similar order.
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Four out of our remaining five games are against Top 50 opponents. That makes me sweat a bit.
I think you’ve already mentioned this, but how freaking crazy will it be if the winner of the Kentucky game is the East Champion???
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The winner will be, it will be UGA, Ky will already been eliminated from said race.
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Thanks for the info. I think the last time I was this emotionally invested in a season was 2002. Sure is fun when they put on a show.
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And then came the 2002 Cocktail Party. That’s why I’m resisting the urge to get my hopes up until the Dawgs are on top of the scoreboard when the gun sounds next Saturday.
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Catch the ball Gibson!
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Wasn’t Gibson…try again…
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Um, I’m pretty sure that was Terrance Edwards not Fred Gibson.
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We were missing Fred Gibson and Damien Gary for the 2002 Cocktail Party. Both were out with injuries. It made a huge difference in our offense.
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For a few weeks now, I’ve been telling my friends that South Carolina is shaping up to be a huge trap game for Georgia. They’ve got a quality defense and they’re getting better offensively. I still don’t think they’re going to have anything for our defense, but if all goes according to our hopes and plans Georgia is going to be riding high and thinking about that trip to Auburn… could get dicey.
Georgia Tech is a tough one, too. But Mel Tucker’s group did a pretty good job against the Genius’ offense in year one, save for the fourth quarter. I’m optimistic it’ll be even better in year two, given that every single other thing about our defense has been.
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I think SC’s offense has stalled out since they lost Samuel for the season. From the Kentucky game on, their passing yardage has declined every week.
What does make me a little nervous is the ‘Cocks are +7 in turnover margin. When Boom has an overachieving team, that’s usually why.
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Stats just show a piece of the puzzle. To start the year the offensive line was great at pass blocking. They beat NC St by a couple explosive plays, special teams, and turnovers. By Kentucky (everyone moves the ball vs Mizzou), teams figured out SC could not run the ball and in the Texas AM game it was the decisive factor. They blew a 17-7 lead with a bunch of 3 and outs in the 4th quarter. The passing yardage has gone down because of a focus on running the ball vs Ark and Tenn. Hopefully this pays off later in the year.
All the remaining teams have a chance to beat UGa. The key is to stop the run (which is difficult) and force a freshman QB to make mistakes on long 3rd downs. I have seen Florida and SC do that. Auburns D looked good vs Clemson. Ky and GT will be tough games. UGA should be favored in all games but a Freshman QB will make mistakes sometime this year.
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“The key is to stop the run (which is difficult) and force a freshman QB to make mistakes on long 3rd downs.” Yes, but…..
” You can’t score on ’em, so they can take their time figuring out how to score on you.” With the strong run game Chaney has no need to put Fromm in a position to make mistakes.
I have a better feeling going to JAX than I have in many seasons. This feels good, y’all, I could get used to it.
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According to Bill C. they’re picking up nearly three points a game on turnover luck. That’s pretty significant when four of your seven games have been decided by one possession. Looks like last year was about the same as well. I have no clue if that’s within the normal range of turnover luck or not. Would probably be a good question for Bill.
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We haven’t lost at Grant Field legitimately since 1989. Meanwhile, our record in Jacksonville during that time is a horrifying 6-21. Maybe those two facts mean something; maybe they mean nothing at all. All I know is I approach the Tech game with a lot more confidence than the Florida game, even in those rare years — like this one — where the Nerds probably have a better team than the Gators.
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I believe that’s Mark Richt Field at BDS.
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Tech is not a tough game when we have a team that is good in all phases of the game. I think what gets forgotten about PJ is how incomplete his football teams are. The best analogy that I can think of…for those of you who might work in finance…is that he is an analyst (and a great one at that) who has become a portfolio manager, but he ONLY cares about making money in the industry that he followed as an analyst. The good news is he is ALWAYS going to “make money” investing in his area of expertise. The bad news is he ignores every other industry figuring that he can make enough in his own sector to offset the rest of his team.
You don’t beat him badly by playing great defense. You beat him badly with offense and not giving up big plays. If you look at our 2011 and 2012 wins, which were the last times we beat them handily, we did it with offense and not giving . (2015 was an outlier as the one low scoring win because his entire team got hurt). 2016 was literally the worst of all circumstances. We moved the ball but kicked FGs and gave up LONG TDs. As long as you make his offense go the distance, it won’t be enough.
As for whether they are tougher than UF. UF has played decent defense in 2017 and have gotten better as the year progressed. For that reason alone, I think they create problems. That said, its seems improbable that UF could sustain multiple long drives against our defense, and its possible that Franks could completely implode.
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another thought on Tech is that his O will definitely catch your D flat-footed the first you see it but familiarity leads to better outcomes.
After the debacle last year, I’m hoping Mel Tucker realizes how serious to take the O and how much lane discipline is paramount that week of practice.
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It’s surprising to me, but GT appears to be respectable on defense this season. Tech ranks 41st in yards per defensive play, which isn’t too shabby, especially when you consider the Jackets are second in plays defensed.
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I refuse to take the time an do hard analysis on the ACC but my gut tells me they’ve played some mediocre offenses. Miami included.
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Excuse me, but there’s nothing respectable about Tech. You can say they have a decent defense, but if it has to do with Tech it’s contemptible not respectable. 😉
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I was thinking the same. What I’ve seen of them, they have a capable offense. But then I remember, I turned off the Tennessee game early when it looked like they would roll them. I’m not sure a good defense allows UT to come back in that game.
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GT still lacks a quality win. They have played tough against Miami and Tennessee but lost. Their only wins are against Jax St, 1-6 UNC, and 2-5 Pitt. South Carolina, Florida, and Kentucky all have better wins.
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Hard to believe how different the Tennessee team that beat Tech was from the team we walloped, personnel-wise…astonishing number of serious injuries to key people…of course Butch is not hurt, so that explains some things.
Right now I am worried about Open’s defensive line, headed by the pass-rushing fiend Jimmy Williamson.
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Florida is the most worrisome to me because of the history since 1990 and it is the next game. Will start thinking hard about Tech a couple days before Thanksgiving.
A lot has been said about Jax being in the Dawgs’ head and I think there has been something to that the last 25 years. I do not think that will be an issue with our team this year. But, I believe the other half of it is that the Gators go into that game expecting to win where we go in kind of hoping something doesn’t go wrong.
I expect UF’s best shot but I believe we are just flat out better and kill all their hope by mid 3rd quarter.
** side note on Tech; if our D is fairly healthy we will kick the shit out of them.
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… so you’re saying we will get their BEST shot? 🙂
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If you visit UF message boards, believe me, anybody with a realistic bone in their body is not expecting to win. They are hoping. But they are not expecting.
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Some reporter doesn’t understand the subject matter he is writing about which isn’t all that surprising.
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The Dawgs are better than all of the teams they will face here on in but any one of the remaining teams on Georgia’s schedule could beat the Dawgs. We’ll know more about them as the season progresses but the Wildcats make me very nervous coming after the Auburn game. Possible letdown and I think U.K. Is better than the pundits think. Kentucky would be undefeated if they hadn’t gotten jobbed by the refs in their game against FU.
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Agree, Kentucky may not be ranked highly, but they are winning/on a heater and that can build a lot of confidence and momentum, making even a mediocre team into a formidable one. We will know a lot more about their mentality after this week (I think MSU wins though, so it may make my argument irrelevant).
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We have one tough match up remaining, and that is Auburn on the road. You can make all the others seem fearsome but that is just excuse making in advance to me. Our guys are pumped about they are capable of accomplishing and I expect they will continue to be. Doesn’t mean we can’t get upset by anyone remaining, every team can against anyone mediocre, or better. But the only one that can go toe to toe with us when we are playing at a B level is Auburn, and that is on the road with them desperate to save their season.
That all being said, is anyone sweating the SC or Kentucky games at home? Really? Curious as to what you see from either that will challenge this particular team, barring some significant injuries. Just isn’t there. Hope both are at night to insure a beat down, but am sure we will get stuck with at least one in the afternoon.
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For those who like 3:30 and primetime starting times, our remaining games should be a crowd pleaser. I looked over the lineup of remaining sec games, and for most of the weeks the UGA game shapes up as the one I believe most cfb fans would prefer to see. I’d be really surprised if we have any noon or 1 pm starts the rest of the year.
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