Fun with small sample size

Now just because computers can’t overreact to Week One results the same way pundits’ and fans’ knees jerk, doesn’t mean they can’t enjoy themselves, too.

Take, for example, how Georgia’s season has been reassessed by ESPN’s FPI.

Georgia’s FPI improved from 22.3 to 23.8, with LSU’s FPI improving from 21.8 to 25.8. Georgia’s remaining strength of schedule dropped from sixth to 14th in the country. Georgia’s chances of winning out, per the FPI, improved from 2.6 percent to 4.8 percent, and the chance of winning the SEC improved from 24.8 percent to 30 percent.

The season’s outlook got better, but the Dawgs slipped in the rankings.  The only conference game where Georgia’s odds of winning decreased is against Kentucky, and that was by the barest of margins.

Meanwhile, Sagarin’s computer hates — and I mean hates — Tennessee.  The Vols dropped down to 77th.  To put that in proper perspective, Sagarin has Georgia Tech at 65th.


Filed under Stats Geek!

10 responses to “Fun with small sample size

  1. Texas Dawg

    With a computer learning to hate Tennessee, it proves that it is one step closer to becoming a sentient being (say hello HAL). All things that are self aware hate Tennessee (1/2 of the Tennessee fan base is so far down the evolutionary ladder that it does not meet this qualification).

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Bob

    In 2004, Sagarin’s computer had USC ranked below Miami. Miami of Ohio. I tend to take their rankings with slightly more than a grain of salt. But ranking the Vols that low is a step in the right direction.


    • Macallanlover

      Sagarin’s computer at this point in the year basically spits out his “garbage in” opinion. It becomes more valid as the interactions between teams builds. I look at it more in the 2nd half of the season to see if I am missing something in my assessments of games I might consider betting on. Computers have a bias to, look back at some of the variances during the BCS. If computers weren’t flawed , all of them would reflect the same rankings/power indexes.


  3. Godawg

    Which is why, as hard as it is sometimes, I root for Georgia’s opponents. I figure the better their record, the better the Dawgs look when we take’em down… Not to say I don’t laugh my ass off when when things don’t go well for someone, like Tennessee for instance

    Liked by 1 person

    • Otto

      Agreed. I would say that thing are more complex now as I don’t want to play Bama twice. As such I am pulling for Clempson against A&M.


  4. Morris Day

    Where does Sagarin have Georgia State?


  5. FlyingPeakDawg

    I hate Jeff Sagarin and Jeff Sagarin hates us. Screw that yankee and his pointy-headed computer system that is nothing more than a glorified spreadsheet spitting-out the answers he wants for personal gain. Why the media persists in giving this idiot a platform to spew his nonsense is beyond me. I hope we NEVER go back to the computer nerds dictating the playoffs and national championship.


    • snark

      Dude, Your comments make you sound like the 1/2 of the Tennessee fan base described above. You have been in the hills too long.