You probably heard about this yesterday.
The Ivy League announced Wednesday that it has ruled out playing all sports this fall, becoming the first Division I conference to say it will not hold sports this upcoming semester because of the coronavirus pandemic.
No decision has been made about winter or spring Ivy sports or whether fall sports could be played in the spring of 2021.
“The campus policies make it impractical for competition to occur, at least through the end of the fall semester,” executive director Robin Harris told ESPN. “That’s why today we’re announcing. Eight campuses have announced their policies for the fall over the past two weeks. When we realized and the presidents realized based on these campus policies that we couldn’t have competition, we wanted to make sure the student-athletes were aware of the outcome.
“It’s certainly the right decision for the Ivy League, but it’s difficult.”
The $64,000 question is what sort of impact that decision is likely to have on cancelling play by the rest of college football. In the short term, my guess is zippo. There are those who point to the Ivy League’s decision to shut down basketball play in March as COVID-19 infections ramped up being followed universally shortly thereafter as precedent for college football to follow now. The rebuttal to that can be found in David Ubben’s piece here ($$).
“Follow the money” is a good philosophy for analyzing any decision, and the Ivies’ decision is the latest example. The Ivy League doesn’t offer its players scholarships to play football. Meanwhile, SEC schools averaged more than $1.3 million in recruiting expenditures alone during the 2018 fiscal year.
The eight Ivy League football programs made a combined $30.1 million in revenue last year, with Columbia earning the most at $5 million, according to the Department of Education. Sixteen FBS coaches, including five in the SEC, make at least $5 million in personal salary.
The Big Ten’s 14 members produced a combined $1.026 billion in football-related revenue last year. The SEC’s 14 members produced $993.7 million.
Six of the 14 top revenue-producing college football programs from the 2019 fiscal year are in the SEC, each producing at least $84.8 million, led by Georgia at $123.1 million, making it the sport’s second-biggest earner. Only Texas, at $156.1 million (shoutout to the Longhorn Network, which gave UT $300 million over 20 years beginning in 2011), earned more.
The tl;dr version of Ubben’s article is the fucking quote of the year, as far as I’m concerned.
![Screenshot_2020-07-09 Steve Berkowitz on Twitter Sen Richard Blumenthal calls on college conferences to follow Ivy League i[...]](https://blutarsky.files.wordpress.com/2020/07/screenshot_2020-07-09-steve-berkowitz-on-twitter-sen-richard-blumenthal-calls-on-college-conferences-to-follow-ivy-league-i....png?w=500)
Truer words were never spoken.
Get The Picture 
Well it’s about the money for the schools and the business community but it’s about a lot more than that. I watched “The Basketball Tournament” on ESPN yesterday and the Illini team beat the Ohio Sate team. It was the first time since March I’ve be engaged with a sporting event that I really cared about and it was great! That feeling down the stretch when the game is ion doubt and then to win it at the end. . . priceless. I hope football happens but I don’t think it will.
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That separation, between the ivies and the schools who play football for money, has been going on for a hundred years.
Maybe covid will be the event that makes everyone see college football for what it is, but I wouldn’t underestimate the power of fandom. Cognitive dissonance is the true dynasty of college football.
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I respectfully disagree in that yes it’s all about money but not just for the schools. Money produces jobs. Tons of jobs. Money for the schools is a drop in the bucket. I have no idea why you are so cynical about the corruption of college athletics. We get it. I have asked you a question numerous times on here and like a typical attorney you have never answered directly. I will ask again, what is the total revenue generated from college football and what % goes to schools and ADs and coaches and what % goes to the private sector? And finally how many jobs have been created in the private sector as a result because if college football doesn’t happen (and it won’t) then while you are on your crusade you can explain to the millions of jobs lost how fortunate that the mean system (of voluntary participation) has been dealt a blow and we can get back to an ethical and fair system.
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If you believe “it’s all about money but not just for the schools”, then explain why they oppose NIL rights for college athletes.
I don’t know what the revenue figures are outside of college athletics. I’m not sure anybody does. But if you think what’s motivating schools is some larger purpose to saving the economy, then also explain to me why a school like Stanford, with a $27 billion endowment, just killed 16 programs to save a few million dollars.
In a free-market economy, actors are going to pursue their own selfish financial interests. I’m sure nobody at B-M wants anyone inside or outside the building to suffer economically, but that isn’t going to be the deciding factor in whatever cutbacks may be coming.
I don’t know why you’re frustrated with me. The frustration should be directed at those who haven’t taken the relationship between the pandemic and the economy seriously from the get go. There are countries that locked down tight to smother COVID in order to regain some control over every day life that are now able to open up organized sports again. We could have done that, too, but instead we wasted the opportunity. Unfortunately, there are a lot of folks inside and outside of college athletics that are paying the price, with more to come, for that shortsightedness.
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As I said you didn’t answer the question …again.
I never said schools weren’t absolutely selfish and driven by money. They are and always have been. That is the depravity of man. But they aren’t the ones making the decision ultimately. The decision is being made by the absolute ridiculous narrative that’s being driven that this is a pandemic that affects all of society. It categorically does not. Not even close. The demographics doesn’t support it. It’s a very bad virus and for many in upper age groups and many with pre existing conditions it has been highly lethal. Awful. But 30 million people have had it, maybe more. The math doesn’t work. Wear masks, wash hands, social distance …Shutting down schools and college football would be FAR more devastating. So why talk about the cause who cares how colleges operate in their decision making. Who gives a rats ass about Stanford they are irrelevant. Foolish decision. And by the way listen to a lot of the Stanford professors that say this is being handled so incorrectly. They get no press because it doesn’t fit the narrative. And watch how this virus mysteriously disappears in November. I’m not a conspiracy theorist but I am a historian and look at history—all of this happens in election years and there’s a reason why and there’s a reason why it goes away after elections. This is not about health and not about black lives. It’s about a hatred of Trump that borders on psychotic. Social unrest, slam the economy. It’s about the fact that Hilary was so bad and screwed up the whole plan because she was so bad and corrupt and now Biden is a drooling vegetable. I am no Trumpie either he’s un POTUS in so many ways but given the swamp that is what it took to shake up the whole DC corruption but the media and social media have driven this country to the brink they are that desperate. The courts, abortion, the definition of human life scientific support , the role of America globally, what defines a citizen, identity politics of racial and gender extremism, defunding police, socialism it’s all at the cliff, I realize you put this in the play pen or whatever you call it. But it’s 100% true. I love your blog and you seem like a good dude, great taste in music. But the time for truth is here. I welcome any facts that prove me wrong. I change my opinion often when proved wrong with facts.
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Didn’t see that coming. Yeah, definitely Playpen territory.
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As I said correct my error prove me where I am wrong. Save this post and feel free to contact me in December. And feel free to let me know once college football is definitely canceled what your opinion is of the millions of people out of jobs.
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Why would you think I would take any satisfaction from people being out of work?
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I didn’t but obviously it’s less relevant to you than the corruption of the schools because I don’t ever hear you talk anything about that.
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It’s a sports blog, not a blog about general economics.
I don’t discuss my kids here at the blog. Are they less relevant than “the corruption of the schools”, too?
The idea that someone who reads GTP has a real grip on what all my priorities in life are, and how they’re ordered, is silly.
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People who make up facts in their heads don’t respond well to actual facts. Its like trying to convince a flat earther they are wrong with the facts.
Why try?
Mockery is as effective and has the benefit of being enjoyable.
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Who gives a rats ass what you think?
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That’s for this “Biden is a drooling vegetable” schmuck.
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Nobody. Nor you. You think Biden is competent ok that’s your opinion. There’s a reason he lost twice before but watch every interview with him the guy has no clue. I actually like him but it’s nonsense he is the best they have. He’s not qualified.
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as compared to who?
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They are playing. As the days go on, I’m more and more convinced they are going to attempt to play without people in the stands other than some big donors, players’ families, and recruits’ families (only those on official visits). The rest of the unwashed masses and students can watch from home. They are going to shut down campuses on Friday (and encourage students who can to go home every weekend) and make tailgating as difficult as they possibly can (or in places where they can, just not let it happen). They are going to try to shut down (or put such onerous restrictions in place on) bars and restaurants to discourage people from coming into town and to discourage students from having places to congregate.
I hope the players get to play especially the seniors (many of whom will never play another down of football after playing the sport they love for 10-14 years). I’ll be glad all of the non-revenue sports will be able to get their scholarships. I’ll even be glad the employees of the athletic department get paid rather than losing their jobs. I’ll hate it for those business owners who go belly up. I’ll hate it for the students (once again, seniors in particular but also the freshmen) who don’t get the football experience. I’ll hate it for the seniors who are playing who won’t get to experience Senior Day in front of 93,000. I’ll hate it for the rank-and-file season ticket holder like you Senator and me.
Good luck with that, college football. I’ll hope to see you in 2021 beyond a few highlights and reading some blog posts.
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Not happening. Save this for sept. They think they can move it to spring. We will see.
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They aren’t playing in the spring at the P5 level for many reasons, but especially if you want to follow the money, the main reason is the broadcast networks already have iron-clad contracts for other sports programming. The other reason is there will be a lot of players who are draft-eligible who aren’t going to risk injury that close to the NFL draft (the NFL apparently has told the CFB powers-that-be they aren’t planning to move the combine or the draft to accommodate a spring CFB season).
They may not play on Labor Day weekend unless they clearly go without fans. I thought from the beginning that the season’s start will be delayed to late September/early October with early OOC games canceled. Regardless of when the season starts, the likelihood of a season with fans in the stands is going down every day. Regardless of what you think about the virus, it has been so politicized at this point that NO ONE wants to be the first to have large gatherings. There’s too much money for the athletic departments to leave on the table not to attempt to play.
Just my thoughts, but that and a couple of bucks will get you a coffee at Jittery Joe’s in Five Points.
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No one? I’d be willing to bet South dakota AND oklahoma that you’ve left someone out.
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South Dakota? No thanks,
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There is no way they play without fans and students in the stands
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Unless you have some inside information, I imagine Sankey, the presidents, the athletic directors and the head coaches are discussing it as an alternative to play in the fall. ESPN conducted this survey of players .. they want to play regardless of whether fans are in the stands.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29294992/college-football-coronavirus-confidential-player-survey
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I do have insider information, but that’s not why I’m saying it even if I didn’t have that information it doesn’t matter this is out of their hands. The fear narrative is going to win.
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I’m sure the powers that be want full stadiums in the fall likely with mandatory masking. The probability of that happening in mid-July is less than 5%, and I don’t think any degree of lockdown, mask wearing, or distancing changes that one bit (in other words, the probability of that on August 1 is 0). The 2nd outcome is a physically distanced stadium with approximately 1/3 to 1/2 of capacity with mandatory masking (think what’s happening at the Florida theme parks). That probability is likely around 70% today and is dropping as the days go by. The 3rd outcome is to play in front of no fans or students with large donors, families and recruits in attendance. I would estimate that’s a 20% likelihood today and rises as the days go on. The 4th outcome is no college football in the fall. I estimate the probability at 5% and rising.
I just think at the end of the day, the powers that be want fans in the stadium but are willing to live with refunding tickets to get their hands on the TV money.
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I believe August 1st is the key date. All the conjecture can continue until then, but at that point hard decisions must be made. If Covid-19 numbers are still on the upswing at that point, the Fall sports season may not happen. I hate to imagine Fall without college football, but this virus is still for real.
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Who needs conjecture when you have all these Mr Know-It-All’s with “inside information”. Jesus what a fucking joke.
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Dick Blumenthal? Okay.
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I wonder – is it actually better for P5 players to have football this fall in terms of their health? They are closely monitored and have constant access to the best health care, and they are also on lockdown at many schools, thus limiting their social interaction and their opportunities for infection.
Then there is obviously the risk/ reward trade off for the players. Many have NFL aspirations that will be negatively impacted by cancelling the season. Weigh that against the risk to these athletes from Covid. I would guess that the health risk from just playing football is much greater than that from Covid.
Having said that, if it was me (and it is) I would want my son to have the opportunity to play and pursue his dream based upon the minimal risk to that age group.
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“It’s about the money.”
Well yes, that’s how we as a free enterprise capitalist economy pay bills, feed families, pay for housing, go on vacations, and help others in our communities do the same. To think that saying “It’s about the money” is somehow damning is to believe the economic system itself is somehow perverse or corrupt.
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It’s damning because the NCAA does everything in its power to pretend it’s not about the money.
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Agreed. They are being hypocritical and duplicitous about their motives. Hypocrisy is a fairly minor sin in my book given how prevalent it is among all of us. We’d all be better off if they were honest and just said they need the games to pay their bills and all of the downstream and upstream implications of that. There’s no shame in that at all.
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It’s not exactly a football issue, but Stanford is eliminating 11 sports altogether. Forever. Part of the decision is based on the fact that their revenue sport (football, duh) may not play this year, and even if it does, it won’t generate the $$$ needed to fund the other sports. This is from a school with a $26 Billion endowment. They say they can’t use that money for anything but academics and research. I am beginning to think the California schools may jump ship as a whole. If that happens things may start to snowball.
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“I am beginning to think the California schools may jump ship as a whole.”
You may be right. If a P5 conference were to cancel, my bet would be the Pac 12.
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Either way this season will be a total cluster f*. If every positive testing asymptomatic football player has to sit for 14 days the games are going to be like watching high school. Clemson because of it’s 35 players who should have the antibodies will win the National Championship. If I had season tickets I’d be expecting my refund soon. Play the games with empty stadiums like in Europe and pipe in crowd noise for the benefit of the folks at home.
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Another thing to keep in mind with the Ivy League and “it’s about the money” observation is that they all have ginormous endowments in comparison to public school in general and especially if you account for the number of students enrolled. They also have an alumni culture that puts an emphasis on philanthropy for the sake of philanthropy (as opposed to donating so you can have lunch with a coach or an amazing luxury box). The combination gives these wealthy privates greater flexibility to do as they please.
FWIW, I went to the Harvard – Columbia football game in 2018 and the atmosphere and level of play was not quite to the level of Colquitt Co. vs Lowndes.
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I think I said something last week that I thought some of the 7A (and possibly 6A) schools in Georgia would likely beat a number of schools that play in the Ivy League … same for Texas, Florida, and California.
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Right now the Ivy League decision will not affect Div 1 FBS football because the Ivy league prohibits member schools from playing FBS scholarship teams. The Ivy League plays 10 games total and doesn’t participate in the FCS playoffs. Most of the league fills out the 3 game non-conference schedule with teams from the Patriot League.
I could see the Patriot League (Georgetown, Fordham, Lehigh, Lafayette, Holy Cross, Colgate, Bucknell) making a similar move due to the loss of the Ivy games. The already have pretty strict COVID protocols which has pushed back and cancelled some games. Bucknell has cancelled 3 games and Colgate lost 1 plus already cancelled their opener vs D1 FBS W Michigan. Fordham doesn’t play any Ivy League teams but their first 3 games for 2020 have been cancelled already. Georgetown loses two Ivy League games and probably will cancel their last game against San Diego. Holy Cross loses 3 Ivy League games (Yale, Harvard, Brown). Lafayette loses 2 Ivy League games plus has cancelled a game again Navy and Sacred Heart. Lehigh is losing two games.
If the Patriot League postpones/cancels their season, it starts to drift into other FCS Leagues and FBS schedules. Army is scheduled to play Bucknell and has already lost a game vs Princeton. Navy, Boston College, etc. all play Patriot League teams. If FCS leagues start losing games against other FCS teams is there a point where FCS decides to move everything to Spring? It might help FBS schools some by eliminating some payments/games etc, but might also play havoc to the schedule in general.
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Tell me the reason the ABA wants “contact tracing” isn’t about the money.
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One thing I have thought about. If there are games, even with few or no fans, what happens in the town hosting the games? I would think, whether it be Athens, Auburn, Tuscaloosa, Gainesville etc…that 30,000 people may still show up to tailgate. The fraternity houses will have pregame cocktail parties, have the game on 20 different TVs and then host a post game party with a band in the front yard. While keeping the crowd out of the stadium will cut down some of the virus spread, people will still absolutely congregate. Students aren’t going to stop getting together.
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Idk, they closed some beaches for the 4th in Florida. Bars are closed at various places around the country. Athens requires masks now. Your scenario might happen the first weekend, then be immediately followed by a media feeding frenzy, then local governments putting the kibosh on group activities.
I’m assuming schools cordon off the campus to the vast majority of outsiders right from the get go, including the frats and tailgate areas. Most people in leadership positions have brains enough to figure out that having a big party (or rally) is not a good look right now.
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