Additional Mizzou thoughts

A series of random tidbits and observations:

  • Given the level of opposition during their three-game win streak, you’d think the Tigers would be showing marked improvement in their offensive stats as time went on.  While that’s certainly the case with the ground game — the last three months’ average yards per rush figure has climbed from 3.65 to 4.46 to 7.18 — that hasn’t been so with Bazelak’s passer rating over that time.
  • That being said, Missouri sure isn’t shy about throwing the ball.  The offense is averaging 41 pass attempts per game during the win streak.  It’s also running the ball almost 37 times per game, which adds up to a heckuva lot of offensive plays per game.  By comparison, Georgia is averaging about 60 plays per game over its last three, and allowing opponents about 67 plays per game over that time.  In other words, tempo control will be something to watch.
  • Over at the Mizzou site Rock M Nation, there’s a preview post looking at some advanced stats that will need to go the Tigers’ way in order to have a shot at the win:  (1) “The Tigers will need to keep the rushing success rate under 45% and their standard downs success rate under 40% to force Georgia to do the thing that they’re slightly less good at: passing.”; (2) “If Missouri is at least +2 in the turnover department they’ll have a chance.”; (3) “… the Tigers will need 8 to 10 explosive plays to help create scoring opportunities or tilt the field to put Georgia’s offense in bad positions.”; (4) “All I’m looking for is a better third-down conversion percentage than Georgia; it’s not a guaranteed recipe for victory but it will be a good sign if it can happen.”; and (5) “If the Tigers hit their season-average of 4 points per trip they’ll need to generate at least 10 scoring opportunities OR average 7 points over 5 scoring opportunities.”
  • My thoughts on those five?  (1) Monken has shown a propensity since Daniels was inserted into the starting lineup of taking what the opposing defense gives him; (2) Missouri’s turnover margin, at minus-3, is worse than Georgia’s, so a +2 might be a tad overly optimistic; (3)  As I mentioned previously, both teams have been solid limiting big plays this season, with Georgia first in the conference at yielding plays of 20+ yards, which means I think explosive plays are going to be tough sledding for both sides; (4) I can’t argue with that one, but as my previous post noted, Daniels has been deadly on third downs (and honestly, Bennett wasn’t bad on those, either); and (5) See my point about tempo, above.
  • I was nervous about this already, and Jake Rowe makes me even more so:  “The Bulldog linebackers, both inside and outside, are going to be challenged and Mizzou has the weapon to do it in Tyler Badie. He has hauled in 23 passes for 314 yards and three scores this year and has a 100-yard game to his credit against Vanderbilt. His speed and quickness could give the Bulldogs problems.”  I hope Rowe hasn’t misspelled “will” there, but I’m not sure.
  • Matt Hinton notes the extent to which Arkansas shredded Missouri’s defense last week: “This time around the Tigers are more concerned with their defense, which was just ripped to shreds by Arkansas for a season-high 566 yards (292 rushing, 274 passing) in a 50-48 shootout.”  Mind you, that was with Franks’ backup getting his first start of the season after having attempted a whopping two passes beforehand.  On the other hand, Matt is probably right that Georgia isn’t going to run the 84 plays the Hogs did.
  • One last point from the RMN post:  “It’ll be interesting to see if Georgia comes out ready to play after a forced bye-week or if they’re more interested in getting back home during a cold a rainy day in Columbia.”  It’s a fair point and it’s one reason I’d like to see Daniels and the receivers shoot off some more fireworks, to get the team excited.  I’m sure Kirby knows he needs to find a way to keep his team motivated, but whether they’re listening is another story.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

21 responses to “Additional Mizzou thoughts

  1. Ran A

    No logic to this whatsoever… I really do hate this game – but just get the feeling that Georgia is going to play a complete game and smoke these guys… Could be wrong; hate the early start – hate the weather – hate coming off of a week without a game – but you just get the feeling that this team is coming together “late” and it will be showcased this weekend

    Liked by 5 people

    • californiadawg

      Agree. The offense is finally gelling and has a new swagger as a result. The defense meanwhile is depleted and has lost a step, probably from exhaustion after carrying the team for 2+ seasons now. Here’s hoping we can put together one complete game on both sides of the ball for 60 minutes.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Pass just enough early to keep the running lanes open. D will likely do a lot of bending but not break. Mizzou won’t get the turnovers, explosive plays or total number of plays they need. Boring game overall…Dawgs 27 – 13.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Dawgs roll. I’m not a betting man, but 13 1/2 looks like easy money. Missouri couldn’t stop Arkansas. No way they can stop our offense with JT at the controls.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Russ

    Cold and rainy equals miserable. Hope the team gets up for the game. Some early big plays by the Dawgs could get them fired up.


    • Got Cowdog

      Cold, wind blowing… ’bout 34 degrees and spitting snow…
      Foreman: “We ain’t leavin’ till it’s done.”
      Best way to get through it? Get it done.

      Liked by 1 person

  5. spur21

    Only thing that will slow us down is the weather.


  6. TripleB

    I don’t understand why this game is in 12:00 slot. It is technically top 25 matchup. Seems like it would get better time.

    Liked by 2 people


    Stat overload…I say the team with the most points wins…book it.


  8. According to the current forecast, the rain will be gone before kickoff. Going to be cold relative to what we’re used to but I don’t think that should be a factor.

    Liked by 1 person

    • armydawg

      Cold affects the distance a golf ball travels by at least 5 to 10 yards. It could cause JT to underthrow a few balls. They need to be aware of that.


  9. RangerRuss

    I’d like to see Daniels hitting receivers in stride and holes opened for the RBs as in the SC game which seems a month ago. No rain, please.

    Liked by 2 people

  10. 69Dawg

    Kirby’s biggest problem will be to get our guys to GAS about this game. Hopefully the Senior leadership can keep them in attack mode. If Kirby is in his KY ground and pound mode we will be in another close one.