The hard bigotry of high expectations

Josh tipped me off to this tweet that graphs recruiting ratings against a performance metric:

Georgia is below the line.  Yeah, there are certainly worse places to be on that graph (looking good, Texas!), but it’s clear that you get the “not bad, but not great” narrative because people expect more results from the Dawgs’ recruiting success.

Georgia’s problem is that it has to deal with the only team farther out to the right on that chart every season.

20 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Recruiting, Stats Geek!

20 responses to “The hard bigotry of high expectations

  1. SCDawg

    Of course Mullen has the Gators super high above that line…oh wait

    Liked by 5 people

  2. originaluglydawg

    What is the “Performance Metric” that this is based on?
    Is it about the total of wins and losses?
    Is the equation the total number of wins divided by the rating of the talent recruited?
    There are at least a few fairly recent things that have left Georgia below that line.
    Kirby’s initial Head Coaching inexperience.
    Officiating (That Natty that Tyler Simmons cost us by not being off sides would have elevated Georgia on that chart quite a bit)
    The uncanny QB situation from ’20. (Also last year’s cancelled game against Vandy).
    Oh..and the Herbstreit Doctrine too.
    Also, doesn’t this go all the way back to 2006?. (Unless I am missing something) so, that puts it into the “Interesting but not that useful for current situation” category.
    How many schools still have the same coaching staff that they had even ten years ago?
    It does explain how GT is above the line, though.

    Liked by 1 person

    • originaluglydawg

      I realize that almost every team can point to little things that were out of the program’s control that cost them some success. Some can point to big things. Dawgs can point to mountains.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Down Island Way

      When you speak of the north avenue fucking trade school being above that line…that line is the ring in your toilet where nerdfootball floats around…

      Liked by 2 people

  3. Sweet D

    It does strike me as odd that the only SEC teams above the line are Bama and Miss St (oh, and Mizzou). Doesn’t that indicate the vast majority of SEC teams do a piss poor job of developing their recruited talent?

    Or, the other conferences are shittier top to bottom.

    Like

  4. Granthams Replacement

    Per that graph Gary Patterson can coach kids way up.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Ozam

    Bad luck, bad officiating and bad coaching decisions have put us at the head of the pack. All that being accounted for, the program is still in a great position.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Corch Irvin Meyers, Former Jags Corch (2024)

    Seems about right.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. PTC DAWG

    Everybody get some crayons and a ruler, time for a graph.

    Liked by 2 people

  8. Corch Irvin Meyers, Former Jags Corch (2024)

    SEC Shorts does it again!

    Liked by 1 person

  9. I can use statistics to support almost anything. There is nothing statistically significant about where we stand on the line. That’s a pretty horrible look for Tennessee. In particular, Paul Chryst does more with less at Wisconsin than anyone (he may be the real talent developer rather than Dopey).

    Liked by 1 person

  10. uga97

    Safe to say, Bama is every teams’ problem until Nicky retires. Once our coaching & development is firing on all cylinders (reminder: Kirby just cycled out his very 1st recruiting class so the top talent is now in full force), then we will move above the line. GATA.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. theotherdoug

    I love how Kansas and Kansas St basically recruit the same amount of talent, but one excels and the other is a dumpster fire. Decided schematic advantage my ass.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Where Kansas is on that graph is embarrassing. They are the Flounder of Power 5 college football. If relegation were ever a real thing, it would definitely be “We would like to welcome the new member of Conference USA, the Kansas Jayhawks!” In a few years after that, they would be relegated to FCS.

      Les Miles was an absolute fool to take that job.

      Like

      • Corch Irvin Meyers, Former Jags Corch (2024)

        Yep, Les Miles was a fool to take a job paying him millions of dollars a year with extremely low expectations, so low that he is unlikely to ever get fired.

        Damn fool. Wish I was such a fool.

        Like

        • Quite possibly, Kansas is the worst public university P5 job in the country (maybe other than Rutgers). Yes, he has made some money, but his legacy has also taken a hit.

          Like

          • Corch Irvin Meyers, Former Jags Corch (2024)

            I mean, just because he’s coaching at Kansas, they’re not taking his Ring away for that. So he gets to keep the ring, and now he gets to coach at the lowest-expectations program in the P5, gets millions of dollars, and can pretty much do it as long as he wants.

            His legacy is secure, and now he’s just coasting while making bank. That’s the dream.

            Like

  12. jcdawg83

    I guess Kirby is supposed to be held accountable for Richt’s bed shitting from 2008 through 2015?

    Like