TFW a stopgap turns into a foregone conclusion

Matt Hinton neatly summarizes the — should we call it angst? — feeling among the Georgia faithful about putting their trust in Stetson Bennett to deliver a national championship.  (And, yes, it felt a little surreal to type that.)

First, there’s the “what has he done for us lately?” side of the ledger.

By any other measure, though, he has played his part as well as even the most unforgiving skeptic could ask for. With the regular season drawing to a close, he leads the SEC and ranks among the top 5 nationally in yards per attempt, overall passer rating and Total QBR. Against type, he also leads the conference in average depth of target (11.8 yards), defying doubts about his downfield arm strength. In fact, Bennett has connected on 56.5% of his attempts of 20+ yards, per Pro Football Focus, the best completion percentage among all Power 5 quarterbacks. Saturday’s 41-17 win at Tennessee was his 5th straight game with a touchdown pass in that category.

I think it’s fair to say if it were JT Daniels compiling those stats, we’d all be pinching ourselves over our good fortune and checking the weekly Heisman odds.

The reason we can’t bring ourselves to do that with Stetson?

The fact is, the lingering questions about Bennett’s limitations against Playoff-caliber defenses can’t be addressed until he actually steps on the field against a Playoff-caliber defense. The nearest approximations he’s faced so far this season have yielded his best performance (vs. Auburn) and his worst (vs. Florida), both in games the defense had well in hand from start to finish. (Bennett didn’t play in the opener against Clemson, which memorably held Georgia’s offense to 3 points with Daniels at the helm and has continued to field an elite defense in the meantime.) Keeping pace with Alabama or Ohio State, explosive attacks that are actually capable of putting some points on the board against any defense, will be an entirely different challenge.

Yes, Stetson’s performance last season against the two teams Georgia faced with potent offenses left something to be desired and I get why that sits in the back of folks’ minds.  Still, I think Matt’s take there shortchanges this Georgia team a little.  It’s going to take more than an offense that can challenge Georgia’s defense — which is definitely a lesser standard than what those potent 2020 ‘Bama and Florida offenses were capable of — to beat Georgia.  Somebody’s going to have to come up with a way to keep Georgia off the scoreboard more than any defense has been able to so far this season.  And, honestly, if Clemson is your benchmark (and their defense probably ought to be), I’m not sure Georgia will see a defense in the postseason that can perform to that level.

That being said, even if Matt didn’t say it directly, I think Tennessee solidified my feeling about the only way to hope to keep Georgia’s offense with Bennett at QB in check is to play soft coverage in the back to prevent the big play and hope your front seven can hold Georgia’s running game down just enough.  (Against Tennessee, that worked, until it didn’t.)  Selling out to stop the run against this Georgia team has proven to be a suicidal approach against Stetson Bennett.

So, maybe there’s a chance.  But maybe — and at the moment, I’d say this is the more likely possibility — Bill Connelly’s got it all sussed:

And hell, if Bama’s offensive line isn’t up to snuff, it could get destroyed by Georgia’s front, at which point nothing else might matter. There might not be an offense as good as last year’s Bama and Florida offenses this year, so for all we know Bennett will keep right on doing what he’s doing, and the Dawgs will be just fine. But in theory, Atlanta might still tell us something.

Keep enjoying the ride, folks.

75 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football

75 responses to “TFW a stopgap turns into a foregone conclusion

  1. Biggen

    I think a lot of us have been saying, “Where is 2020 UF/Bama or 2019 LSU to really challenge the UGA defense??” I know I have been saying that. I just don’t see it this year. Maybe Ohio State, but they seem inconsistent at times.

    Yes, attacking UGA’s backend coverage through the air is probably the way to beat us. But can a QB really expect to hold the ball 2.5 – 3 seconds+ consistently for a game to make those throws over and over?? I don’t know. Neither Bama or OSU has an elite O line to hold up against our pass rush for an entire game.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Spell Dawg

      Yeah, I haven’t watched much tOSU, but I have a few friends that are big, overly-confident buckeyes (well, your average buckeyes); none of them love Stroud or their chances for a natty this season.

      This weekend they play Michigan State @ noon, could be a good one. It’s in the Shoe, so Tucker better have his team dialed in.

      Liked by 1 person

    • gastr1

      This is what I keep telling myself too. They’d have to have real precision in the passing attack and there aren’t the QBs that there have been in CFB in past years. It’s intriguing to me what might have happened vs Joe Burrough or 2020 Bama, but I’m confident (more so after the UT game) that that will remain an interesting hypothetical rather than analogous to anything in 2021.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. I’m enjoying the ride and bracing for the bumps we are going to hit along the way. I am confident that we can beat Alabama with either QB in a winner take all game in Atlanta (yes, I still believe that the SECCG loser is not going to make the playoff).

    Liked by 2 people

    • If we close out like we should, we’re in no matter what happens in Atlanta imo.

      Liked by 3 people

      • We’ll see. If Bama, Ohio State and Oregon win their leagues with 1 loss and Cincy is undefeated, I don’t see any way the committee puts 2 teams from the same conference in.

        Liked by 1 person

        • originaluglydawg

          Alabama would have 2 losses and some narrow escapes. They wouldn’t be conference champs. Why in the hell would they get in? Talk about pissing the world off? That would do it.

          Like

    • akascuba

      I’m with you ee I don’t trust the playoff committee to give a spot to Georgia unless they are undefeated. Lose to Bama and it’s they had their shot and blew it. Past performance says UGA lands the 5 spot if not SEC champion.

      Liked by 5 people

    • Derek

      I think we’re in if we show up 12-0. I think bama is out if they lose.

      The committee will have no problem telling Cincy to gf themselves imho.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Maybe. If Oklahoma or Oklahoma State is also sitting there as a 1-loss conference champion, there’s no way the committee puts a championship game loser in over an undefeated Group of 5 champion that’s in the top 5 and a 1-loss Power 5 champion?

        Like

        • Derek

          How’d that work out for Big 12 champ Ok State in 2011 when they were matched up vs. a team that didn’t win their own division?

          I just don’t think you go from 1 to 5 with a loss to #2.

          Ultimately, the bias is towards money and UGA buys more tickets and sells more advertising than cincy or ok state. With a loss we drop to 3 and the people who run shit pray for a rematch in Indy.

          Like

          • I’m glad to see others are confident that we’re in whether we win the SEC or not. We ain’t Notre Dame, and this isn’t a weird pandemic year. History tells me that the committee hasn’t rewarded a championship game loser. They rewarded ND last year in a season where they couldn’t operate as a true independent (and there wasn’t a deserving 4th Power 5 conference champion).

            Like

            • atticus34

              Every week commentators say we are the most complete, dominant team. Aint happening, we are in.

              Like

              • Are you so confident that you would sit key starters in the SEC championship game because the commentators have said we’re the most complete and dominant team and are in whether we win or lose? I wouldn’t and doubt you would either.

                Once again, with my red and black glasses on, I would agree with your perspective that we’re in as long as a loss is a close loss. When I put on a more objective lens and look at this in the context of history of the playoff and the current state of the playoff rankings, I don’t see the committee putting us in as an SEC runner-up over an undefeated Cincinnati or a 1-loss Big 12 champion.

                Like

                • atticus34

                  #1 is not going to drop to 5 after losing to #2. It would be Bama, Big 10 champ with 1 loss, Dawgs and Ok State or Cinn.

                  Like

                • Derek

                  Don’t forget oregon. If OSU is the Big ten rep, the heads up win becomes huge for oregon.

                  Like

                • Um, if Oregon is sitting there as a 1-loss Pac 12 champion and a win over Ohio State, they ain’t getting knocked out for UGA. If Georgia loses the SEC championship game, the final rankings will be Bama, B1G champion, Oregon (who is currently at #3), and UGA/Cincy/1-loss Big 12 champion.

                  If UGA gets in, the howling will be loud from everywhere other than the Peach State.

                  Liked by 1 person

                • Derek

                  They’d put uga at 3 not 4. Gotta set up the rematch for the final.

                  Like

                • PTC DAWG

                  Me thinks you’re fretting way too much over this….barring an upset, a major one at that, and or a blowout in ATL…..UGA is in. That said, hell yeah, they want to win in ATL….

                  Like

                • I’m not fretting because I actually think we will win the next 3 games and leave no doubt (almost to the point of going ahead and purchasing tickets to the Orange Bowl). I am being objective about our chances if our fate is left in the hands of the committee. There will be forces in that room in Grapevine that do not want 2 SEC teams in the playoff if there are 1-loss Power 5 conference champions left out. I just don’t think the committee is going to give a 1-loss in the SECCG Georgia team over a 1-loss Big 12 champion (or possibly an undefeated Cincinnati). For Georgia to get in as a championship game loser, it is going to take chaos occurring on championship weekend.

                  I really hope we aren’t having this conversation on that Sunday afternoon because Georgia wins on the previous night.

                  Liked by 1 person

            • Derek

              They let a team in that didn’t even make their conference championship game tho.

              Meanwhile, the undefeated group of five rep sat home.

              Like

              • That undefeated Gof5 team was sitting at #12 in the rankings and never even cracked the top 10. Cincinnati currently sits at #5.

                They let Ohio State and Alabama in because there were no other 1-loss conference champions.

                Like

  3. iusedtopostasmikecooley

    Keep enjoying the ride, folks.

    That’s right. For the people who are too overcome with all their “concerns” to enjoy this season ought to just stop watching. Because it’s never going to be better than this. If this season isn’t good enough nothing ever will be.

    Liked by 10 people

  4. Spell Dawg

    I haven’t had a negative thought about these Dawgs since Clemson. It’s been a wonderful feeling, like my wife has been slipping me daily Paxil all season.

    Liked by 2 people

  5. Got Cowdog

    I damn sure am.

    Liked by 2 people

  6. Who is pining for a Murray Mett Gday QBR rating right about now? 😉 About three times a game I’m reminded why this guy is our starter. He’s got some sneaky fast scrambly wheels, and I sense Monken really, really likes that option. On top of this, as you pointed out, his downfield accuracy has improved. Looks like he is reducing his boneheaded decisions a little bit, but he is a gamer and you can’t coach all of that out. I’m ok with it. We got a good backup if things go south but I trust this coaching staff.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Russ

      Your last sentence says it all. Whoever starts, if it’s not working for some reason, I trust the other guy to come bail us out. While I’d enjoy any win over Bama, part of me wants to see a QB (either one) come off the bench to stab Bama in the heart in the 2nd half of the SECCG.

      Liked by 3 people

  7. I’ve said it before and will continue to say it. Name the P5 QB that has taken the most snaps vs. a Top 5 D?
    Stetson Bennett (go back to even his freshman year)
    All the talk last week was about the “inability to match the speed that TN O goes at.” . Why is there not the narrative of the inability to match the size, physicality, speed and depth that no one can duplicate in going against Georgia (Shane Beamer came close). Stetson goes against that every day in practice so there’s nothing you can do to frustrate him or confuse him (on at least a consistent basis) that he hasn’t already experienced on the practice field. Heck I’d go as far to say that games are probably easier than the practices he has to compete in weekly.
    Go Dawgs!!! GATA!!!

    Liked by 8 people

  8. practicaldawg

    If LSU’s heavily depleted defense can do what they did to Alabama’s OL, I like our chances even with Hutson Mason at QB

    Liked by 4 people

  9. hertyfield

    I would be lying if I said I wouldn’t get some joy at the idea of an SEC Championship against Alabama where we struggle the first had to get going offensively, maybe we are down 10 at the half. Then bring in the backup and torch them for 28 unanswered, for some karmic retribution.

    Liked by 4 people

    • originaluglydawg

      Not me.
      I want this game over by the half in the Dawgs favor.
      I want the gumps that drove over from Tuscaloosa to leave early enough to watch the last quarter back at home.

      Liked by 2 people

      • RangerRuss

        Damn right. I want the Dawgs to whip that ass so bad that every 5 star recruit headed to Tuscaloosa reroutes to Athens.

        Like

  10. SCDawg

    I think part of the reason fans are expressing concern about Stetson is that we all thought the days of winning a championship with defense were over. And that you would need a near generational QB to win it all-think Clemson and LSU and Bama of recent years. Stetson has been great, but certainly not what one thinks of as generational. He’s a walk-on who’s not even 6 feet.

    Turns out this may be a generational defense. And the offense is very, very good-explosive and talented, even if the O-line is not as good as we hoped. So maybe stetson is the right guy for right now.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. ASEF

    Very possible Georgia runs it’s entire schedule without facing a “shoot out” game. Had 2 last year, lost both convincingly.

    Sometimes the schedule falls your way. No need to apologize for it. It’s not an asterisk. Every championship requires some luck along the way.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Biggen

      I don’t even know if I’d blame it on scheduling. I haven’t seen a legit NC contender that has the high octane passing attack we have been seeing the last few years. Season isn’t done yet and maybe one will still emerge.

      Like

      • ASEF

        Last year, Georgia ran into 2 teams with multiple top-end NFL pass catchers and great/good (respectively) QB play. Complemented by very good/good (respectively) defenses.

        Alabama’s got maybe 1 top end NFL guy and 1 NFL back-up/special teamer. And their interior OL is SEC-average. Not elite.

        Ohio State’s loaded at WR, and their offense is probably the 2nd most dangerous unit in CFB this year – but it’s not a juggernaut, and there’s a real chance Georgia never even sees them.

        No one else out there stands a chance absent multiple Georgia turnovers. An extended, full-game visit from the College Football Chaos Gods. It happens. Built into the sport.

        That’s as of right now. Injuries can change things in a hurry.

        Liked by 3 people

        • Biggen

          This thought process is where I have been the last few weeks. There isn’t an opposing team that scares the crap out of me on offense this year. Barring injuries and turnovers, I don’t see a team lighting us up for 30+. I just don’t. However, we should be able to score at least that on everyone else.

          Maybe I have gotten over confident. Shit happens every Saturday of course that gets me worried to start the day. Top 10 teams struggling or losing always makes me start to sweat because I start to think “That could be us!” But then we come out and play 4 quarters of football and by the end of the game it’s never even close.

          Like

      • originaluglydawg

        Yeah.. We’ve got two more games for JT to rise up and become that guy.

        Like

  12. Derek

    Everything depends on what score bama posts, how many 3rd and distance situations we end up in on offense and whether Stet takes care of the ball.

    If you tell me Bama can’t get to 20, I don’t care who the qb is. As the winning score creeps up, the more anxious I get that they’ll be able to slow us down just enough to cost us.

    If JT were playing and clicking I don’t think bama could keep up vs. our defense.

    Liked by 2 people

    • originaluglydawg

      “If JT were playing and clicking I don’t think bama could keep up vs. our defense.”
      I suspect this may be the case.
      He will play and it will be spectacular.
      The next two weeks will tell the tale, but I won’t be surprised if we see JT play a lot..a whole lot…and get the start against Bama.
      Or Kirby could still hold that card right up until the Game, keeping Saban in the dark. That would be risky as I do believe in rust.
      But Kirby has some options to play with on this and he’ll use them to his advantage.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Derek

        At this point, I think JT is being prepared to come in to relieve Stet, if necessary. I would like to see JT get the bulk of the work Saturday and about half of it vs. tech. That takes care of the rust.

        I’d be shocked to see anyone but Stet start until he loses the job tho.

        Liked by 1 person

        • miltondawg

          Agree. Because I think this Saturday is the last time we see JT in a Dawgs uniform.

          Like

          • Derek

            Wtf are you saying?

            Liked by 1 person

            • miltondawg

              Sorry. I meant to say that I think that this Saturday is the last time we see JT in a Dawgs uniform in Sanford Stadium. Got distracted and hit send before I finished.

              Like

              • Derek

                I hope you’re wrong. Why transfer? To where? He’s the presumptive starter for the likely preseason No. 1 team in 2022.

                Where is better?

                Like

                • ASEF

                  He ain’t starting over Stetson. Lot of talent behind those 2 who want that starting job just as fiercely.

                  I suspect JT goes pro. Weak QB class, if he shows out at the Senior Bowl and combine, he could jump into the 3rd round. Someone will take a late round flyer on him even if he doesn’t.

                  Versus rolling the dice on getting beat out again. Because absent JT being clearly superior to a younger QB, Monken’s going with the younger QB.

                  Liked by 1 person

                • miltondawg

                  I hope that I am wrong as well. I have no idea what to believe about JT anymore. I don’t remember if it was Brad or Gary during the broadcast on Saturday that said that they ran into JT’s parents in the hotel lobby Saturday morning in Knoxville and the father said that JT is finally fully healthy. One thing though is certain, if he is going to go to the NFL in the draft in the first two rounds he has to be the starter somewhere. He’s a California kid so he has no loyalty to Georgia other than what he has developed there in the last two seasons.

                  Like

                • Derek

                  My supposition is that team JT will think he’s leaving a ton of money on the table if he comes out early.

                  No way JT doesn’t start game 1 next year, if he comes back. None. Zero. He could get dinged again, but otherwise he’s the guy.

                  Liked by 1 person

            • originaluglydawg

              The thought of JT coming back next year…possibly with Pickens….is enough to send me to a cold shower.

              Like

  13. Bennett sees not just a playoff-caliber but a generational defense in practice every day. It’s not the same, I know, but it’s not like the game will have to slow down for him in the games.

    Liked by 1 person

  14. RangerRuss

    Bone headed decisions as Twistification calls them. Bad judgement n’other words. Good judgement comes from making bad decisions and dealing with the results. That’s where SBIV has improved. You can see him thinking about doing some silly shit and immediately nipping it in the bud. He’s still a bit too hesitant to get rid of the ball and eats a sack or gets an IG call, but what QB doesn’t? Stet is a shifty little shit and his confidence in his ability to gain yardage with his feet has increased weekly. He has a style his own that’s enhanced by those talented receivers and backs and the confidence that comes with being the QB1. He’s getting better from experience.
    Angst? Yeah, I’m still anxious that SBIV isn’t up to the job. I’d also be worried that Daniels would be injured if he were the starter. It’s hard to argue with this seasons results though. A bit of paranoia keeps you on your toes and prepared. In addition it makes life interesting.

    Liked by 4 people

    • originaluglydawg

      Kirby has a cushion with two capable QB’s with different abilities.
      If we are a little anxious, what must Saban be?
      He’s got two SEC games left to win and then one week to prepare for two different UGA QBs. Arkansas and Auburn will be very physical games.
      And Georgia’s whole offensive injury thing is improving and improving.
      I wonder if Pickens and JT play throw and catch a lot.
      Wouldn’t it be great to see them both out there together again? Think it might happen?
      Kirby, he plays his cards close to his vest and he seems very confident.

      Liked by 2 people

  15. PTC DAWG

    I’ve been enjoying the ride since UGA hired Kirby..his first full recruiting class told me he meant business. It’s been a damn good run so far. Kirby is on it.

    Liked by 5 people

  16. dawginwestknoxville

    I rarely post, but I check in here nearly every day. Not sure where to post, just want to say this: I’d been to several UGA games with my father, the last of which was 8 years ago. He had severe health issues since then and we haven’t been back. He died last fall. I took my 2 boys (8 & 7) to the Ga vs Mizzou game in Athens las weekend, their first game. The experience was perfect, down to the clean comfortable bathrooms, concessions, leg room, fans, fighter jet flyover, the Mark Richt love, and even running into – and getting a picture with – Tom Crean. Nostalgic and unforgettable. My boys were beside themselves. I thought about my father constantly.

    (Sidenote: I also went to the UT vs Ga game at Neyland, not my first visit to Neyland. Just the opposite experience, thankfully I spared my boys. Tiny corridors, tiny old dirty bathrooms with trough toilets and 2-3 sinks, slow concession lines, small food selection, the worst seating I’ve ever seen at any venue. I don’t think it’ll ever be worth it to go back to Neyland.)

    I love this team. My father would’ve loved this team. I can’t wait to get back to Athens. What a blast this year is.

    Liked by 3 people

    • originaluglydawg

      Kneeland needs to be de-constructed and rebuilt to at least 20th century standards. And build it back with around 50K seats because that’s about all they’ll need after a couple of more years of reality set in.

      Like

  17. signaldawg

    I was on the “play JT” train until this last week. Bennett hasn’t done anything to loose the job in my opinion and I feel like he is definitely capable of continuing his success. Mostly because of Monken. Bennett has been throwing to open receivers. He doesn’t take the risks we saw last year nearly as much. That’s why he’s been using his legs more. If he doesn’t see an easy throw he’s tucking it (most of the time). And that’s a good thing. What worries me is when the field gets shorter. I don’t have any stats to back this up but it seems like the shorter the field the harder it is for him to find an open receiver and fit the ball in tight spaces (I feel like JT is probably better there). We saw that against Florida outside of the last 90 seconds of the first half. We drove the field and stalled. Stetson is as good as JT when he has lots of space, but when things get compact he struggles (as do all QBs but I feel like he struggles a little more). Again, I don’t have any stats to back that up, just my observation.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. 69Dawg

    The SEC wants two in and the talking heads have as much as put us in if we lose the SECCG like we have in the past (close). That said I will bet you right now that the Refs will be whispering Roll Tide as they call the game. The Bama penalties will be meaningless but ours will be a repeat of the offsides call on the punt block. Our only hope is that the refs can’t holding call and PI us out of the game. I’m not going to hold my breath, too much money involved. They can always suspend the crew with pay after some horrible calls. Our best bet is to beat Bama in the CFP Championship with may just maybe refs that DGAS about Bama.

    Like

  19. Terry McCullers

    Pulling for the mailman all the way, but sure glad we got JT waiting in the wings!

    Liked by 1 person