December 20, 2021 · 6:30 AM

Making a choice when you don’t want to choose

For some reason, I imagine this is the internal debate Kirby Smart is having about a certain decision:

I guess the question posed there is, why does the defense play worse when Stetson starts?

It’s a rhetorical question.

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72 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

72 responses to “Making a choice when you don’t want to choose”

  1. Hogbody Spradlin
    December 20, 2021 at 6:49 AM

    Maybe the Senator is being tongue in cheek. Sometimes it’s hard to tell in writing. But anyway, isn’t it fundamental that one side of the ball feeds off the other, or conversely gets tired when the other doesn’t perform?
    Two other possible points: Mr. Dayne Young is drawing too much of a conclusion. The other one: what comes first/what causes the other, bad defense or bad Stetson?
    I’m still a J.T. Daniels man, but I don’t get paid the be responsible for such decisions.

    Liked by 5 people

  2. ugafidelis
    December 20, 2021 at 7:00 AM

    Because they were playing national champions with Heisman caliber players all over the field.
    Not Cincy and the worst Clemson offense in 8 years.

    Liked by 6 people

    • Down Island Way
      December 20, 2021 at 7:30 AM

      Heisman caliber players don’t beat your team, wide ass open Heisman caliber players will give your team a really bad look, while getting beat, really bad…

      Liked by 1 person

    • Jared S.
      December 20, 2021 at 8:10 AM

      Yeah, I’m so tired of these Stetson/Bennett comparisons looking at their numbers in these four specific games.

      And comparing the defense in these games is stupid.

      Cincy and this year’s version of Clemson ain’t Alabama.

      FWIW, I’m in the camp that believes it might actually be possible that SBIV is a better option against Bama than Daniels. And not because of any particular stats, but rather because Bennett is who Monken and Smart appear to believe is the better option.

      I’m not sure it makes the most sense, but at the end of the day I have to believe they know better than anyone else.

      Liked by 5 people

      • eethomaswfnc
        December 20, 2021 at 8:36 AM

        Since we don’t hear from Monken in the regular season, we have no idea who he thinks is the best option. I’ve been watching what Monken does this off-season to tip me to what he thinks. If he leaves for a lateral move, I bet it’s a tell that he didn’t believe SBIV was the best option. If he stays (which it looks like he has already rebuffed Brian Kelly), it would appear he supported the decision.

        Like

      • James A Mercer Jr
        December 20, 2021 at 5:52 PM

        After enduring countless bullshit comments on SBIV from many commenters, yours was a breath of fresh air…yes, the HC and OC together are the ones to make the best decisions on the team…not a bunch of couch potato coachs who know very little except their highly biased opinions. Thank you, Jared.

        Like

  3. Texas Dawg
    December 20, 2021 at 7:37 AM

    IF (and that is a big if) we see them again in the NC game, it won’t matter if Tom Brady starts at QB for us unless the defense returns to form.

    Liked by 7 people

  4. mp
    December 20, 2021 at 7:44 AM

    Point made but I do think it’s misleading to include the Clemson game where we believe JT was already injured and look at where that receiving corp was injury-wise.

    Liked by 2 people

  5. Anon
    December 20, 2021 at 7:50 AM

    We aint played nobody……until Bama. That’s my conclusion

    Like

  6. moe pritchett
    December 20, 2021 at 7:56 AM

    Beat Michigan

    Liked by 12 people

  7. W Cobb Dawg
    December 20, 2021 at 8:21 AM

    I’m pretty sure there’s an unwritten rule that prevents only UGA from substituting the backup QB when the starter struggles.

    Isn’t that why we recruit top QBs? So they can sit idly by and watch the starter go down in flames?

    Liked by 4 people

  8. Migraine Boy
    December 20, 2021 at 8:26 AM

    Some Neil Peart energy from the Senator this morning

    Liked by 1 person

  9. Derek
    December 20, 2021 at 9:14 AM

    5 picks and the conclusion is that its all about the defense?

    I’m going way out on a limb and saying that Alabama’s offense is teeny bit better than Cincy or Clemson.

    And this years Bama defense probably isn’t as good as either of those two team’s.

    In short, we are now all dumber for having read that tweet.

    Like

    • otto1980
      December 20, 2021 at 9:30 AM

      Oh come on, the D should be able to get stop after stop no matter the field position or how much time they catch their breath between possessions. Elite D concurs all, As Erk said if they never score we will never loose.

      Like

      • Derek
        December 20, 2021 at 9:39 AM

        It is a sound strategy. Never understood why teams didn’t try to get more shut outs. I mean if you shut out LSU in 2019 you probably win. I mean what was Kirby doing!?!?

        Man thats jes coachin right thar!

        Liked by 2 people

      • ugafidelis
        December 20, 2021 at 9:56 AM

        I’m sorry but being gassed doesn’t equate to no defenders being within 10 yards of the open receiver. And FTR I’ve been openly bearish on our offense, so I’m not just ragging the D.

        Like

    • ASEF
      December 20, 2021 at 9:37 AM

      You really think Cincy’s defense is better than Alabama’s? Seriously? Ok

      Like

        • ASEF
          December 20, 2021 at 10:19 AM

          Basically identical ratings in Fremeau’s index. And advanced metrics tends to overrate big fish in small ponds.

          Alabama, however, this year is much better against the run than Cincy was last year.

          Not sure there any basis at all to argue Cincy’s defense last year (or Clemson’s defense this year) were demonstrably superior to the one Stetson faced two weeks ago.

          Like

          • Derek
            December 20, 2021 at 10:28 AM

            If you say so. The dramatic completion and interception rate differential I’m sure is accounted for by bama’s demonstrably superior defense.

            In some draft room some day there will be argument about who to
            take: Stet or JT.

            It will be so very, very close because who can really say there is any discernible difference in their abilities and performances?

            I’d say that you’d have to be clinically insane to suggest that’s a hard choice, but perhaps it is I who is insane…

            Like

            • ASEF
              December 20, 2021 at 10:44 AM

              You so badly want JT to be something he’s not.

              Which doesn’t make Stetson any better or worse. But, if I had to lay money on one of these two propositions:

              A) JT’s a great QB just waiting to bust out, and Kirby’s a f’ing moron.

              B) JT ain’t getting drafted. He’s a 5 star bust.

              I know where I’d place my bet.

              Liked by 1 person

              • Derek
                December 20, 2021 at 11:19 AM

                I like 7-0 as a starter. Navel gazing isn’t something I’m terribly interested in.

                Maybe those aren’t the two choices.

                Maybe JT isn’t healthy. Maybe there is a very good reason that JT isn’t playing that we just don’t know about.

                Ill say this:

                In the preseason when it was a clean choice Kirby came to the right decision and didn’t think JT was a bust. I know you think he should have started Stet in Charlotte. I think thats crazy.

                So did the HC by all appearances.

                Good day to you sir.

                Like

                • ASEF
                  December 20, 2021 at 11:42 AM

                  Lol. I think JT got his shot. And I think he missed.

                  You’re the one insisting the JT we saw against Miss St, Missouri and GT is the real JT, not the one we’ve seen ever since.

                  14-23 for 155 yards, 2 TDs, 1 pick against Missouri and Charleston Southern.

                  Again, you badly want JT to be something’s he’s not. And you warp everything else to make the puzzle piece fit.

                  Like

                • Derek
                  December 20, 2021 at 12:26 PM

                  “Mop up duty qbr” is the new “spring game qbr.”

                  Fuck me….

                  Like

                • ASEF
                  December 20, 2021 at 3:00 PM

                  Yeah, giving JT a sizable # of attempts in blow outs is totally meaningless. Kirby does that all the time!

                  Like

                • Derek
                  December 20, 2021 at 7:20 PM

                  If it’s meaningful it because it tells us something about his health on that day.

                  As far as those stats being a sufficient basis to choose Stet?

                  Pretty sure CKS ain’t that fucking dumb.

                  Like

  10. charlottedawg
    December 20, 2021 at 9:39 AM

    I’m fully in the play JT Daniels camp while at the same time acknowledging that his numbers against ranked teams (Cincy and Clemson) are horrific especially when you look at how many points the offense scored in those two games (take away the pick 6 against Clemson and safety against Cincy).

    Reasons being the following:
    You’re almost guaranteed to get into a shoot out IF, emphasis on IF, we don’t get pantsed by Michigan and play Alabama again. Stetson has given you more than enough of a body of work that not only can he not win you that kind of game, he’s going to throw a couple disastrous interceptions to seal the game for bama. You might as well see if your 5 star QB can do what’s needed to beat Alabama, namely be effective on third down, stretch the field, throw into tight windows, and beat man coverage when everyone in the statdium knows you’re going to pass more than 30 times that night. Or put it more simply, you KNOW you’re losing to Alabama if you start Stetson, so why would you not play JT and see what he can do. Oh btw let’s not forget that JT TOOK the starting job mid way last year precisely because stetson wasn’t getting it done and held on to it through the summer and fall camp to the point Kirby lauded his preparation and leadership and brought him to sec media days, etc. etc. This is the horse you were planning to ride this entire season, if you’re gonna lose to Alabama at least do so with him on the race track instead of the stable.

    The fact that the defense played poorly against Alabama to me is irrelevant to the QB discussion. Yes we need to fix whatever on that side of the ball basically gave Bryce Young the Heisman but the point of the offense and your QB is to score points, a fuck ton of points. ESPECIALLY in the biggest games when the other teams offense based on the history of the college football playoff, is also most likely scoring a ton of points against you in that game. So ipso facto if your QB and offense depends on your defense shutting down the other team and all your explosive plays coming from a ground game that’s just having its way all night including the passing game set up by a dominant run game, guess what??? You don’t have an offense that can win you a national championship!!!!!

    Liked by 1 person

    • Derek
      December 20, 2021 at 9:43 AM

      Hell man if you can’t guarantee JT beats bama we might as well Jackson Muschamp.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Bulldawg Bill
      December 20, 2021 at 9:52 AM

      Bravo, Charlotte!!

      Like

    • junkyardawg41
      December 20, 2021 at 11:20 AM

      I am not sure if you are making the point I think you are or not, but you lay out the case that JTD took the job last season and opened up as the starter this season but isn’t the starter now. Everyone assumes because JT is in uniform (he was in uniform a lot last year too) that he is available and can perform at a level we have seen previously.
      If you accept the distinct possibility that through the SECCG that JTD was unavailable due to injury, then it makes sense that SBIV is probably the best QB out there available to play. Avail-ability is the best ability.

      Like

      • charlottedawg
        December 20, 2021 at 11:24 AM

        I mean maybe, but the fact that JT played against our opponents during the back half of the season leads me to believe that physically he’s able to play otherwise, why have him out there at all? Also I know I can’t prove this but my sources on the team say JT looks fine physically in practice.

        Like

        • junkyardawg41
          December 20, 2021 at 2:56 PM

          He also hasn’t been asked to push the ball a lot down the field nor throw it 30-40 times a game. Late in the season, almost all his throws were within 5 yds of the LOS. That doesn’t prove my point but it also can’t be discounted either.

          Like

  11. PatinDC
    December 20, 2021 at 10:14 AM

    Sobering.

    Like

  12. Terry McCullers
    December 20, 2021 at 10:14 AM

    This team lives and dies with the defense. Plain and simple.

    Like

  13. charlottedawg
    December 20, 2021 at 10:45 AM

    Somewhat of a tangent but something else that’s a concerning trend under Smart. We’ve had four 5 star QBs (Eason, Fields, Daniels and BVG) and two highly rated 4 stars (Fromm and Stockton). The fact that we can’t put together a competent passing attack much less an explosive one in the past 6 years or develop a first round QB (which is important because every national champion since 2016 started a QB selected in the first round of the NFL draft, can quibble on Jalen hurts who was a mere second rounder) makes one wonder if Kirby will ever be able to do so and by extension ever win a national championship in this era.

    Liked by 1 person

    • siskey
      December 20, 2021 at 11:00 AM

      I agree with you, Charlottedawg but aside from Oklahoma and Bama, there are no other teams that put all of their QBs in the first round either. We should have hit on one by now but of the ones that have signed with Georgia all except Fields have been pretty flawed at least in the eyes of the NFL. Eason and Fromm were not and I assume Daniels will not be a1st round pick. I don’t know how much of our system attributed to that because Fromm had a hell of a year his Sophomore year and arguably should have come back for his senior year.
      I do wonder if the “flaws” in some of the Oklahoma and Bama QBs in the pros (to date only Murray is a top 20 NFL QB) will give those programs the label of being system QBs or if the NFL is so desperate for QBs that they continue to take chances on them even after Tua and/or Mayfield become backups.
      That being said I do not think that Kirby would rather not score points or that his philosophy is to play his favorite guy over someone who is better. The Fields/ Fromm decision will always be thrown in his face but I think it was the decision that most coaches would make.

      Liked by 2 people

      • charlottedawg
        December 20, 2021 at 11:41 AM

        First, a 5 star recruit is by definition a recruit that recruiting services project as a first rounder, that’s why there’s 32 of them in every recruiting class. Obviously they don’t all pan out into first rounders but when none of ours go in the first round (or come remotely close to being drafted in the first round) other than the guy who dumped us like a hot rock after one year in your system then puts up record setting numbers at Ohio state….. that’s a problem.

        Second, we don’t need to put a QB in the first round every year, but there’s a pretty strong trend that we need to put at least one for us to have a realistic chance at a national championship. Your point about these guys not being all pro in the NFL after being picked in the first round isn’t what I care about. I’m pointing that out because these guys are getting picked in the first round because they are putting up monster numbers in college which is why their teams have a realistic shot at a national title and by extension play well and score a bunch of points in playoff games.

        In short, the fact that none of our QBs put up big numbers at Georgia is a pretty damning indictment on both our ability as a program to develop a difference maker at the most important position in modern college football as well as a spectacular failure of our offensive scheme to give us a realistic chance at what we aspire to as a program (winning a national championship)

        Liked by 1 person

    • Derek
      December 20, 2021 at 1:02 PM

      Stockton has been pretty underwhelming thus far. Good point.

      Fire Monken!

      If any of those guys had set the world on fire elsewhere, you’d have a point. Since that’s not happened, you don’t.

      Btw: no reason fields couldn’t have done here what he did in Columbus had he waited his turn.

      Eason didn’t light it up at UW and hasn’t played a live NFL snap.
      Fromm got his first work yesterday and had a 18.4 QBR. Sounds about what I would expect based on what I saw for three years.
      Fields has struggled at Chicago.

      Liked by 2 people

  14. Dawg_Stats (@Dawg_Stats)
    December 20, 2021 at 12:13 PM

    we really gonna say that Bennett wasn’t a significant reason we lost to Bama twice decisively?

    In the two games,

    Bennett had a 41.4% pass success rate on 1st and 2nd Down with 2 sacks and 3 INTs. 7.6 YPA 2 TDs….all I’ve heard is that we need to manage the offense better so that he isn’t facing 3rd and longs.. T

    Those numbers are nowhere NEAR championship caliber for a QB in the playoffs.

    On 1st and 2nd down
    33% pass success rate when down 7+ with
    4.6 YPA
    1 TD and 2 INTs – one for a crushing Pick 6

    On 3rd Downs when down 7+
    37% success rate,
    3.3 YPA
    0 TDs and 1 INT

    So, tell me again how we manage this QB so we can when? D

    Don’t get behind, don’t get in third and long, and….

    It’s obnoxious for folks criticizing the Defense when the Offense has yet to score 25 points. Saban said it, YOU HAVE TO SCORE POINTS… and fans still think Stetson is the one to do…

    Liked by 2 people

  15. spur21
    December 20, 2021 at 4:25 PM

    More than 24

    Liked by 1 person