Bill Connelly has a rebuttal to those of us who dismiss Boise State’s gaudy stats on the basis of its schedule strength.
… Boise State’s defensive line was rather incredible last year. Our natural tendency is to talk down mid-major lines — surely they’re not big enough or athletic enough. But as I mention in today’s Boise State profile, Boise State’s line was big (ends over 250, tackles over 295) and incredibly deep. Ten players registered at least two tackles for loss (eight return in 2011), and the Broncos finished in the Top 5 in both Adj. Sack Rates and Adj. Line Yards. It is difficult to prove yourself to any major degree when taking on a mostly weak schedule. But if you completely dominate that schedule, you still prove something. Boise State completely dominated.
Like it or not, Dawg fans, you might as well prepare for a tougher game than the 2005 match up was.
Get The Picture 
If the Dawgs win they will have earned it. Boise is a very good team regardless of who they play in conference.
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Best team money can buy. That’s why they had to fire their AD–NCAA violations. Who knows how many more there have been that were not discovered. Typically only the tip of the iceberg gets seen. I guess they are called Boise State because the name Ohio State was already taken. Maybe they will change the school’s name to Auburn State, though.The colors of the schools match–in more ways than one. I hate cheats! GATA!!!
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I think most of the people around here were expecting a tough game already. Boise is far better than they were in 2005, and we can’t count on a QB meltdown from Moore.
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Boise believes it can and will humiliate us. we better be prepared to play. not saying we can’t win but if we’re not on our a game it’ll be like the 07 ut game only with a more prolific offense. I also believe boise’s SOS and weaker conference is irrelevant. this is about how well boise does in one big game with a name brand opponent and they have proven they play very well in the big games.
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+100
Boise will be amped for this game, and we’d better match the intensity and then some.
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One of the things that worries me is the point you made — Boise shows up big time in big games. It’s something they’ve excelled at for several seasons.
We, on the other hand, have folded like a chair in big games for a few seasons now. Part of that has to do with fielding an inferior team, but I’d really love to see us get our swagger back with a big time performance in the Dome.
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If Grantham gives Boise’s WRs the same massive zone cushion Willie gave the UT WRs in ’06 & ’07 he should be fired at halftime.
*Ugh* I was this close to finally blocking those games from my memory too.
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Couple things. First this is just as big for Boise St. as it is for us if not bigger. They are dying to prove they can play with the big boys. No doubt they are tired of winning every game just to become a wallflower at the big dance. For them it’s all or nothing.
Secondly, they are used to winning and our boys are not. They will have a solid game plan and the experience to execute it If we don’t hit them dead in the mouth early and often it will prove to be a long night for UGA.
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I think every Georgia fan is prepared for a tough game. I don’t think a single Boise State fan is prepared for a tough game. And I like it that way.
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The Broncs are a smart and opportunistic team. But seems teams forget how to tackle around them. It’s aweful. We need to hit hard and wrap up. And hold on to the football. Man it seems they always get a turnover when they need it.
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Been saying this for a long while now. This game scares me much more than the SCe game, but it isn’t nearly important as the SCe game. Play hard, play like you give a sh!t, and be proud of how you played win or lose. We’ve been missing that for a few seasons.
At this point, I say Boise will beat us, maybe by a TD or less. Let’s keep an eye on camp updates and injuries from both sides though; any big injuries could tilt the scales one way or another.
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I think he makes a good point. I’ve always thought the SEC speed thing was not an advantage at the skill positions, but was a huge advantage along the DL. We produce such big and fast DL in the south, and other teams can’t match up with that quickness.
And I too hope they underestimate us in the Dome. But, I don’t think they will. Their coaching is too good to let that happen.
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It’s a game of inches and degrees. Boise’s got a great line, but it relies a lot on speed. That line is not truly undersized, but it’s not that big either. A team that comes straight at Boise might have success in neutralizing speed. Nevada ran all over ’em with 300 pounders on the OL. Boise’s D gave up 29.2 points per game in its three most challenging regular season games (though it only gave up 3 to Utah).
Also, a lot of Boise’s solid defensive numbers are situational. Their defense benefits from a wildly prolific offense. Boise scores a bunch of points and forces teams to throw the ball to catch up. Run attempts go down and sacks go up. Holding up against a straight-ahead onslaught for 4 quarters is not what they do.
I’m not calling an easy game at all – I think Boise’s darn good and rightly favored. I am also objective about the quality of our line. But I don’t want ot discount the manner in which we match up with Boise. Our stats don’t compare to their stats, but our guys might do alright against their guys.
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Good post that reflects many of my sentiments. I was writing and posting below when you posted. Think that it’s good for several of us posting the same caution while admitting that our passion is ready for that game. To me it signifies how we have to suffer thru practice and wait. Ain’t it a bitch?
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But back to the original point of the article: No, it doesn’t. When you dominate a weak schedule, just means you don’t suck. Does’t mean you can dominate the next level. You could be like Crash Davis…the best hitter in the minor leagues. Kramer in karate class. You could be great but you will keep losing respect until you play more than 2 tough games a year.
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“Kramer in karate class.” Classic.
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Why won’t he wear the ribbon??
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If the Dawgs listen to their katra they could dominate.
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Everything Football Outsiders has ever studied, at both the college and pro level, shows us that dominating bad teams — truly dominating them to a degree worse than everybody else — tells us as much about a team, in both the predictive and evaluative sense, as their performance against good programs.
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Bill,
From a statistical perspective, what does it say about Boise that they surrendered an average of 17 points more than their season average per game versus AQ teams. Better yet, they gave up almost 23 more ppg in games versus ranked teams. On the offensive side, the scored 12 ppg less against AQ and 15.5 less against ranked teams. Doesn’t this poke a hole in the usage of padded stats against lousy teams? I fully expect a hard fought close game and I don’t mean to disparage Boise here, but I just don’t get the use of stats as a strong argument. Not trying to disparage what Boise has accomplished, but it just seems like apples and ornages to me.
I tried to look up against whom they amassed the tackles for loss you reference above, but I can’t find D stats in any boxscore…
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From a statistical perspective, it’s a reach using the word “average” when talking about two games.
And they scored fewer points and averaged more against BCS and ranked teams because they were playing better teams. That happens to almost everybody. The problem, of course, is that because they’re in a terrible conference and somehow never play a BCS conference team in a bowl game, you’re left to draw conclusions based on one or two games, which was my entire point. To adequately judge Boise State, we have to use every game they play because the only thing worse than a 12-14 game sample size is a two-game sample size. Our numbers say they’re a fantastic team, but they barely get a chance to prove us either right or wrong.
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Do they dominate bad teams that much worse than everyone else does? UGA lit up LA Lafayette and Idaho St. Looking at Boise’s schedule, they certainly walloped some teams. I’m sure the stats for those games bear out their dominance, but looking at those walloped teams schedule’s themselves, Boise’s victory margins don’t really stand out. A lot of average teams managed to crush most of Boise’s victims. My personal take is that Boise was probably on about the same level as South Carolina last year. South Carolina was a good team. Beat Alabama, better than UGA or UF, won the east… and lost 5 games. Boise can definitely beat UGA, but I’d have to see them play and defeat an entire SEC schedule to believe they’re as good as the teams that actually manage to do that.
Post script, i just realized to whom I’m responding. You’ve definitely done more research on this than I have. Great job on the team previews.
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The whole point of our numbers is to avoid the transitive property game, but…
Boise beat Toledo by 43. Arizona beat them by 39.
Boise beat Wyoming by 45. Texas beat them by 27.
Boise beat NMSU by 59. Kansas beat them by 26.
Boise beat SJSU by 48. Alabama beat them by 45.
Boise beat La Tech by 29. A&M beat them by 32.
Boise beat Hawaii by 35. USC beat them by 13.
Boise beat Idaho by 38. Nebraska beat them by 21.
Boise beat Fresno by 51. Ole Miss beat them by 17.
Nevada beat Boise by 3. They beat Cal by 21.
Boise beat Utah State by 36. Oklahoma beat them by 7.
Boise beat Utah by 23. Notre Dame beat them by 25.
I can poke a million holes in this line of logic, but yes, as a whole, Boise did beat bad teams by more than just abut anybody else. And that’s only using points, which, for predictive/evaluative purposes is extremely flawed.
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I think this data tells us that Boise is not a bad team. Boise performed against a credible but soft schedule. They were solid in all phases last year. But how much significance do you attach to scoring the marginal touchdown (or three) against a hapless team? Does winning by 42 mean more than winning by 28? If you threw out all stats after the games were 21 points apart, Boise would only have game stats for half of the quarters of the year. It’s not their fault, but it really poisons the sample.
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All of our primary stats at F.O. throw out garbage time, yes, and one of the side effects is that if you blow everybody out, it throws out a lot of your plays. But in turn, that means more of your plays against good teams are being counted.
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Well don’t I feel dumb. Thanks for your contributions – we appreciate you engaging with us and for your objectivity.
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2nd.
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I went back and read your review of Boise, which is very good. I also looked at the football outsiders site a bit more. I’m not going to argue with your analysis. I certainly haven’t done anything nearly as comprehensive. I generally just come up with rationalizations to support my pre-existing biases and aspirations, like most fans. But that’s never failed me before. Probably because it works as well retrospectively as it does prospectively. I’m just going to stick with some cliches about the grind, playing elite teams week in and week out, preparing for more than one team a year… and hope to hell that Georgia validates it all.
Sarcasm aside, that is some killer analysis in your piece. I guess I’ve just got to hope you’re wrong.
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Though if that’s the case, UGA truly dominated bad teams last year (I’d say Colorado was more of a mediocre team).
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Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl, just sayin’…
GO DAWGS!
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I was just thinking that very same thing!
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Boise is much better than that Hawaii team was. If you’re expecting a 41-10 walk you’re going to be incredibly frustrated.
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That 2007 Hawaii team beat a 17th ranked BSU team that year. This BSU edition is more like that 10-3 2007 in talent, NOT the 2009-2010 team. They lost a lot, but more importantly, in key places this year. WR/DB/LB/and especially their PK and Punter.
I am not counting on 41-10, but I could see 35-17 UGA.
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They lost their top two wide receivers and not a whole lot else.
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They also lost…
Jeron Johnson – leading tackler last three years and fifth as a freshman. three time all WAC team (2nd team in 08 and 09, first team 2010).
Brandyn Thompson – leader in INTs last two seasons. all WAC in 2010
Ryan Winterswyk – freshman all america (07), three time first eam all WAC
Winston Venebal – 2nd team all WAC
Everything else is relatively the same.
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And those two receivers (and the other seniors) accounted for 57% of their receiving yards and 84% of their receiving touchdowns. They also lost their top two punt returners and their punter and place kicker. Also the coach (Brent Pease) who developed those stud receivers left.
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I generally think it’s easier to replace receivers than most other positions (unless said receiver is AJ Green or Julio Jones), but maybe they’ll be a little worse. Of course, Georgia probably won’t be what they were at the end of 2007 either.
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Admittedly we have a similar situation having to replace AJ and Durham. I was just pointing out they lost more than “just two receivers.”
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Boise is much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much better than Hawaii was. You may still win, and I’m leaning toward predicting that, but this is like saying “Team A killed UAB, therefore they can hang with Alabama.”
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What’s Boise’s record this year?
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The same as the Bluto Blutarsky’s grade point average.
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Exactly!
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I’m sick of hearing about Boise State. We need to knock their dick in the dirt.
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Gee Jax, that was prophetic.
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Couldn’t agree more with every post. We can be fans and send them forward with hyperbole, but my confidence in the new culture leads me to believe that the coaches aren’t listening to it. They are preparing them for a battle as well they should.
Several postings about Boises’s size on offense and defense are all over the place. When UGA fans post, we overemphasize the weight difference as if that will translate into athletic GodKong power. Not true. When BS advocates post, they add a few pounds to equilibrate the difference, but overall our hyperbole about individual differences is over the top. Yep, our guys weigh within 5% of what we post while their players may take a bigger hit in weight differentials when we compare them.
The truth lies in the middle.Their players are larger than we collectively think and our players don’t have the humongous difference that some post. Their big boys are athletic and experienced. Accept it. Some of them are much more experienced than some of us. Accept it. The game between the big men will certainly drive the direction of the game. Word of warning. Look closely and objectively at these differences before game time and don’t come back on here with some lame crap about individual players not performing or that you are personally “disappointed”. You are wide open to let highschool kids from Atlanta and other places who are fans of our rivals push your buttons all year.
It’s fine that we are excited with some results thus far, but we shouldn’t push the envelope this early. You are dooming yourself to disappointment and to become the little dog that nips frustratingly at your own heels. Accumulated frustration is feeding a lot of the over the top remarks while a few are cunningly placed to make you a team detractor when events don’t go your way. Sober up!!
We should cheer wildly for the Dawgs, win or lose because we are fans, but if we lionize individuals beyond their abilities we are setting ourselves up for a big fall. Don’t know about you, but I’m not going to give creeps the pleasure of pushing my buttons randomly.
We can be happy with what we are hearing about players’s progress and enjoy our preseason workup to game time, but not to the point of being disappointed before the season starts.
Sic’em Dawgs!!
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Here’s the underlying issue. Compared to an SEC team, Boise is unproven over a single season because they only play 1 or 2 top 25 teams. The Cornhuskers used to do the same thing – play a soft schedule and beat the everlivin’ you-know-what out of their 1 or 2 big game game opponents. Were they good? Absolutely. Were they deserving? Questionably
One game and an entire season are offer tremendously different data/outcomes If BSU somehow beats UGA this year, UGA could still be considered the better / proven team at the end of the year* if they run the table afterward.
*Anyone that uses the phrase “body of work” should be permanently exiled from human contact.
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I think the Huskers and Tommy Frazier proved they were deserving against the Gators, just sayin’….
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I think reading comprehension is a lost (often never attained) art.
just sayin’…
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I guess you’re asserting that Florida in the 1996 NCG (Fiesta Bowl – which the Huskers squeaked out 62-24) left questions about whether Nebraska was deserving? And that must have also left Nebraska “unproven” when compared to the SEC? I’m assuming that was your point.
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go gator!
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Nice clip. Yeah, that Nebraska team reminds me so much of Boise State.
In the immortal words of Borat….wait for it….wait for it….little longer…..
NOT!
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No. What I’m saying is what everyone else is saying.
Those teams are good. But they haven’t run the gauntlet of an SEC season.
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“What I’m saying is what everyone else is saying.”
I understand your point that BSU does not face an SEC-caliber season schedule. No one would or does dispute that. And many point to that as a chink in their armor of recent success. When they have played strong, nationally-recognized programs, they have played tough and won some close games.
But I have never heard anyone compare them to Nebraska of yesteryear. Nebraska’s total domination of Florida in 1996 left no question about their superiority…but apparently it did leave questions for you. The bottom line is your comparison is off-base and not even widely considered, let alone widely accepted.
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Both teams have a lot to prove – to their own fans and to the national audience. I’m pretty sure BSU will be ready to play. But realistically, the Dawgs should kick their a$$es.
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This is half the season for Boise (TCU being the other half). They will do nothing but prepare for UGA from the opening day of camp until the last practice before Kick off. They know they MUST win this game. They know they can still beat the rest of the teams on thier schedule with only one week of prep and that the have to beat UGA or none of the rest of the games matter. They will be prepared, count on it.
UGA meanwhile will install Defenses for all the other teams we must face throughout the season. While the UGA preseason practice will be split between Boise, SC, UT, MS State, and GT (among others), Boise will use all their practices to focus on UGA. They will be better prepared just based on practice time allotted so if you think they will not be able to exploit any weakness you aren’t being realistic.
Expect a close well fought game on both sides with a close UGA victory where the dogs pull it out in the fourth. And if the Dawgs win in the fourth the game ball should go to JTII.
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It should go to the team that had to prepare themselves under 100 -degree summer circumstances. I consider that as a partial sacrifice of their time that they did not HAVE to do and they should be rewarded by recognition of their extra effort.
Joe T is doing what he is hired to do. He doesn’t need the special recognition and the team does.
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Fire mark richt!!1!
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