If you’re looking for signs of optimism for Georgia’s chances in the SECCG, this piece, by a sports handicapper who writes for al.com, has some good analysis. A few examples:
- Alabama’s defense has a propensity to allow explosive plays against the run this season. Sometimes linebacker Mack Wilson will get out of position, or the safeties will take bad angles.
And forget the narrative that the problem is fixed. The Citadel’s Dante Smith authored touchdown runs of 45 and 44 yards two weeks ago, and Auburn’s Shaun Shivers broke a 75-yard touchdown run negated by a holding call that nonetheless featured some of those bad tackling angles.
- Mississippi State, for example, disrupted Alabama’s offense in the second half by constantly hitting Tua Tagovailoa.
At first glance, Georgia does not seem built to take advantage of that potential disruption. The Bulldogs rank 99th in the country in sacks, and D’Andre Walker is the only player with more than 1.5.
But Kirby Smart and his defense have started to get increasing pressure on opposing quarterbacks in the last month. The staff also is smart enough to weigh risk/reward and send timely blitzes.
- According to S&P+, Georgia’s defense is No. 2 in the country in marginal passing explosiveness. The Bulldogs arguably are the best in the country at preventing explosive passing plays.
Tagovailoa has been otherworldly at almost everything this season. But he’s merely one of the best in the country on intermediate throws. It hardly qualifies as a weakness, but he’s a less lethal version of himself on those.
Deandre Baker is perhaps the best cover corner in the country this year for Georgia. Alabama’s receivers are terrifying, but according to advanced stats, this secondary is significantly better than LSU’s this season.
Like I’ve said, Georgia isn’t chopped liver. Alabama is certainly formidable, but there are areas the Dawgs can exploit. The question is whether they can do so enough. After all, this guy concludes with, “As I said to start this post, Alabama is a better team. The Tide are likely to win, and may even win big.”
Get The Picture 
Defend the Benz.
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To quote Got Senior.: “Alabama is a got-damn good football team, but Jawja ain’t no got-damn slouch. Don’t you worry, Kirby’s got somethin’ for ’em.”
If both teams show up it promises to be a hell of a football game. This Dawg is excited.
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Because of the machine-like discipline and consistency of both teams, which is a testament to the quality of the coaching, almost every pundit and fan has the exact same analysis of this game.
Intangible factors such as the temperament of the coaches and players, the dome field advantage, the revenge factor, whether one team will be unprepared/uninspired, etc, are mentioned as memes but no one really believes they will affect anything.
Alabama is the better team, and they will almost certainly win. I believe that too. Hopefully, though something magical will happen that shakes us out of the world where Saban and Smart’s desires to control every possible variable have become a reality more than a theoretical coaching exercise.
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The defenses are interesting – Alabama surrenders explosive plays but locks down on efficiency, while Georgia is pretty much the opposite of that.
I do not like Georgia’s defensive line stats against their running game at all. Explosive plays on offense and special teams are going to have to compensate for that in a big way.
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Can’t help but think the refs are gonna fuckup
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Wonder what the over/under is for pass interference calls against Baker and Stokes is going to be. My guess is each gets flagged twice. I hope somebody is already in the ear of the sec about potential game changing calls that go against us. We stand no chance if the refs help gump again.
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I’ve never believed that there was some sort of active conspiracy by the refs to help one team or another. However, as a Georgia win seems to assure 2 SEC teams in the CFP, maybe we get the breaks this year.
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You know that scene in the Untouchables where they change the juries at the last second. I would like to see that with the officials. Have Sankey step in and switch em.
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TMC DAWG wrote;
“Can’t help but think the res are gonna fuckup”.
Don’t worry, sir…the “SEC officials in Tusca…er…Birmingham will see to it that all is perfectly fair. Take it to the bank. Not.
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I always fade the public (and Macallanlover 🙂 when applicable)….the line opened -10….then bolted to -13.5. I personally think sharps will come in late and drive it down. I’m on the DAWGS regardless -13.5….and will seek a moneyline bet (+700) thru several outlets pregame. Bama is NOT the best team ever…and GA unit v unit (personnel) has an advantage in my book.
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From your lips to God’s ears
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“when applicable”, indeed. I apologized for saying Tech would lose, and cover. I think that is my only bad call on a UGA line. I don’t see anything close to a +700 on the UGA moneyline, looked last night and it was +405. U also think the line moves away from UGA, not toward it so I am waiting to see the changes before I bet. My two online sites never opened at UGA +10, it was +13, and +13 1/2. But I did hear about the rapid movement some report, just cannot confirm. Fade at your own risk, I am up for the season (on both sites) and there are several seasons I could not say that at this point. I take my lumps and admt them, like the crummy loss I had last week on Meechigan.
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Are you able to share your online sites? I’ve not found one I would trust with any regularity
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same request here 🙂
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One I have begun using this year is http://www.sportsbetting,ag It has all sports betting and will take bets down to a penny, believe it or not. It is offshore, of course. You can set up an account with Visa card, or use bankwires, cashier checks, Bitcoin, etc. My experience is the only credit card you can use internationally for this from the US is a Visa. And you should notify them in advance that you intend to do some international business or they may block and give you a “security alert”. This is the quickest way to get set up, there may be some costs to the other methods, other than BitCoin. I have used other sites in the past but it was harder, and more difficult to get set up.
My other site is a contract site by my local bookie and a very cool way to do business. He no longer has to do business on the phone for hours each day, simply pays them a fee for each bettor and uses their software to keep all the accounting with recaps as to how he stands at any given moment. I love this because I don’t have to “pay up front”, just have a line of credit through him and exchange all money by mail. Any bookie not using this is absolutely crazy versus the “old school” method. I do most of my betting through this site.
Other sites have been accurate and fair with me but I have heard complaints about delays in getting paid. Have used Bravado, BetOnLine, and one more I cannot recall. Most of them took a couple of weeks to get everything in place for security reasons.
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Other site was 5Dimes. In the prop bets post today I liked the analysis by Chris Smith. He seems to have some affiliation with a betting site called beatmybookie, that looked pretty good as well. It is out of Costa Rica I believe, that is where my bookie’s site is as well.
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Saban likes to focus on defending the middle of the field. Our big plays in last year’s game were between the hash and the sideline.
Would not be surprised to see the off tackle, the jet sweep, and the long dormant toss sweep show up in a big way on Saturday.
Jake is particularly good at the out and the out and up throws if we can protect (and that’s an BIG ‘if’).
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Last year we had Wims to go up and get those sideline throws. Early this year, we didn’t have a replacement. But Holloman has really come on lately and make me more optimistic about completing some of those throws. I agree we’re the clear underdog, but I’m telling you there’s a chance.
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There was just a stub hub for $225 but it required buying two. I’m still shooting for under $200!
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UGA has more weapons capable of explosive plays either running or passing than Bama has. We “have” to get D-Rob in the game if he’s healthy. Stanley or Cook running jet sweeps, Using Fields as a wild card or anything else creative to score points. If the coaches are willing to pull the trigger we can and possibly will win this game. Also, Kirby can “not” play conservatively. Got to keep the foot on the gas to the last second. If not, our chances go way down.
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Also, do “not” force Jake to play with handcuffs on. Turn him loose and let him prove he’s just as good as Tua Toyota.
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Agreed, let Jake play. further let him run the RPO with him keeping. Fromm keeping on the RPO was used more often last season. He doesn’t have to go for many yards just keep down and distance on schedule.
Kirby playing conservatively hasn’t been a problem if another a fake FG and taking shots against LSU was a bit overly aggressive.
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Turning Fromm loose will cause LSU all over again. UGA has to establish the run to free up the pass. Yes, that will mean we have to also slow down the Bama offense.
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” Alabama is a better team. The Tide are likely to win, and may even win big.”
BAH!!…on paper. Dawgs are peaking at the right time, the entire team….freshman are growing up. I would also argue that Fromm is playing at a higher level than Tua the last 3 games, definitely as good. There is always a “chance” with good QB play. UGA strength of schedule, 28….Bama’s, 55.
Another difference, the Dawgs have to win to stay in, back against the wall. Bama, not so much…..I also like where the game is played. I BELIEVE!!!
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at some point bama is bound to make a mistake, or have a “mediocre game”. i keep thinking about the 2007 Patriots losing that super bowl to the giants as a sign of hope
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Coin toss.
If Dawgs win, do they take the ball or do they defer.
Bama wins, they are going to take the ball.
They know they can move the ball.
Plus, they will stack the LOS cause they do not believe Dawgs have a passing game.
Tide is convinced they will play Notre Dame in the title game.
Plus that is what the media wants.
TV wants a big time audience from tradition rich historical teams.
So the fix is in.
And we thought that blocked punt last season was a bad call.
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Georgia has to take the opening kick if available. And I hope to high heaven your doom conspiracy view is not in the cards, but like everyone else I watched last season and saw enough that I have not been able to go back for a 2nd spin. (If you are of that mind, doesn’t it make more sense to get UGa across the line and backdoor Bama into the mix at #4?)
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I think you’re full of shit
Will
Anyone who has eyes
Or access to statistical data
Can see that Georgia has a passing game.
Nick Saban and his staff certainly have access to game tape.
To accept or defer.
Is up to the Captains
With guidance from the coaches
Last year’s contest was one for the ages.
Although I enjoyed the Rose bowl more.
Referees are human too, even if only their mothers love them.
On further consideration, that may be the issue.
That their Mothers did not love them so they desperately seek
Attention
Go Dawgs.
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