“TDs > FGs!”

One of Kirby Smart’s best traits is the way he travels a learning curve quickly.  He came in 2016 as a novice head coach and it showed.  2017?  Boom — one busted coverage away from a national title.

Which isn’t meant to say it’s been entirely smooth sailing.  There are very few programs that have that kind of track record.  But I do think it says something about what we might expect from Georgia’s offense in 2020.

Let me show you a couple of charts to illustrate what I’m thinking.

That’s not exactly distinguished company Georgia found itself with last season.  But, given the way the offense sputtered over much of the season and how reliable Blankenship was, you can’t exactly fault Smart for playing the hand he was dealt the way he did.  (Even if you want to argue he was the dealer.)

That being said, this is what distinguished company looks like.

Screenshot_2020-06-11 The Tailgate Tent on Twitter Unrelated, but related Here are the teams that scored TDs at the best ra[...](1)

Blankenship is gone.  So is Coley.  What lessons do you think Kirby has learned from 2019?


UPDATE:  Along those lines, you should read the opener to Seth Emerson’s state of the program piece ($$).  It wraps up like this:  “I got this.



Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

20 responses to ““TDs > FGs!”

  1. Gaskilldawg

    Another factor last year regarding kicking field goals instead of going on 4th down is that with the quality of our defense putting some points on the board per drive would be enough and we would not have to get into a TD shootout.


    • Meh. Ohio State and Clemson were comparable in defensive ypp and they didn’t settle as much as UGA did.

      Not to mention, if that’s the case, then we shouldn’t expect any changes in 2020, as the defense should be at least as stout as it was last season.


      • Gaskilldawg

        I understand your point but both Ohio State and Clemson had more efficient offenses last year than we did. The likelihood of converting on 4th and short was higher for OSU and Clemson than it was for us. Therefore, trying for a 4th down conversion was a better gamble for them than for us. The value of putting 3 on the board instead of risking 0 was higher for us than them.

        Liked by 1 person

  2. I would love to see the play calling once the ball would get inside the 40. My guess is that we were attacking to score TDs but weren’t successful. Also, I would want to see how the play calling changed on 3rd down. If we were running more on 3rd medium+, that indicates a desire to get 3 points rather than the first down and risk a turnover. Finally, short yardage success rate on 3rd or 4th down would tell you something, too.

    My gut tells me that we were attacking on early downs and then settling on 3rd down in the scoring zone.

    7 > 3 > 0

    Liked by 1 person

  3. My kingdom for an offense that is truly ruthless.

    Liked by 2 people

    • That’s what I hope the 2020 version of Manball is like.


    • My man.

      I have been arguing this for 15 years…. I have had arguments where I said score a touchdown and people said well if you score too quickly that put your defense on the field. It’s insanity. An offenses job is to score points and a defense’s job is to prevent points.

      Mark Rick and Bobo had the ability to come out like a tiger and then it would change to trying go to clock management.

      ball control, and I’ve written about this many times, ball control is insanely important. But ball control doesn’t work if you can’t get 1st downs. If you’re in a lead and can grind the h*** out of 1st Downs then there you go. But you can’t give up scoring for grinding if you can’t make 1st Downs.

      If you are not in total domination then you have to press. And Georgia time after time after time has gone into ball control …clock control when the game really wasn’t at hand.

      If you look at the scores over the last years it bears it out. Against better competition. Georgia has never been Jimmy miami. But it is clearly evident that national championships come from outscoring out witting having bigger dicks, longer dicks, and just generally making your opponent look like shit by scoring on them endlessly.

      Oh I’m sorry you don’t believe me? Probably the greatest quarterback arason in college football history, probably the greatest college football season in history. 2019 Louisiana State University Tigers with a joe burrow.

      This concept that defense wins championships is flawed and generally not true. Being able to boat race your opponent and score points….


  4. FlyingPeakDawg

    11 wins means we didn’t need TD’s. USCe loss was preventable with made FG’s. Then the SECCG proved why TDs matter. Does this mean Kirby will look for more TDs this regular season? Without HotRod I’d say yes, but if we have another star kicker, I really wonder. And he won’t know if he has that kind of kicker or not until he trots him out there In live action, so Kirby is going to have to decide on this strategy quickly with Bama looming so soon. Given our new running and deep ball talent at QB I’m guessing he’s going to commit to going for TDs more.


    • Everyone (I hope) who read/blogs on the GTP would rather have TDs over FGs,should UGA’s “O” be able to thoroughly convince opposing dcs that the passing game/play action/threat of the run leaves areas to exploit, TDs may be surprisingly easier than expected….would prefer to see UGA’s “O” carry the “D” than vise versa….not knowing the special teams kicking game yet leaves me yearning for a “looong snappuh…UGA’s “D” will have to rise up this season (?) and stop scoring drives, just don’t want to depend on them week in week out… should UGA get into the 4th qtr. with 17-28 point lead CKS will go manball on their ass….hell, he might even go manball with a 10 point lead


  5. I was surprised to see LSU as low as it was on that list and then I remembered that they scored so often from outside the 40 yard-line. Then I remembered that the only QB last year with a higher rating on passes longer than 20 yards than Newman was Joe Burrow. Then I took a cold shower.

    Liked by 1 person

    • I think it all comes together this year. I really do. I came to Georgia in 1995, right in the middle of the Goff years. I came in at our nadir. I graduated in 1998, then stayed in Athens to work at the Banner-Herald (back when local newspapers were still a thing). I started grad school at Georgia in 2000 and graduated in 2003. I watched Donnan slightly elevate the program (Robert Edwards running down the left sideline in Jax is a great memory). I saw Richt get within five yards of a natty, and will always love that man for the way he represented our University (and still does), plus a personal response he wrote to a letter I sent him in 2006 – he responds to his own mail. But what Kirby has done blows the doors off anything I’ve seen since 1995. And I see nothing to suggest he has done it anything less than the right way. I don’t know if it will be Newman, or Daniels, or Brock, but I absolutely believe we currently have the QB in our fold that will lead us to the Promised Land. And this year, with this defense, sounds as good as any to me.


      • RangerRuss

        rabe76, I share your enthusiasm. Along with all of CKS’s oft mentioned attributes it seems he’s now able to bring in ambitious and innovative coaching staff with ease. UGA football has become a destination for those coaches and players with high aspirations. I haven’t felt this confidence in our program since my school days ’80-’83.
        Here’s to the Dawgs bringing home some National Championships soon and often for us older fellas…

        Liked by 1 person

      • How are you trying to say this is the middle of the golf years? I have read this several times over and I’m still confused. 1995 was last year


  6. Texas Dawg

    That’s some really poor company we are keeping.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Honestly , and I’ve said this before , I really wonder what Kirby is going to do without the best kicker in the nation,

    I think theres some sort of irony in the fact that he wouldn’t give a kicker a scholarship, and mark Richt was made fun of for kicking field goals over touchdowns and then that’s exactly what Kirby did last year.

    And I’m still convinced that hot rod missed a field goal against Florida many moons ago because he was on the wrong side of the field with the wind. Kirby should have asked him where to be and maybe should have put that into the decision making for that short yardage run. Right footed, He needed to kick into the wind from right to left versus trying to judge how much drift he would get aiming right to left with the wind


  8. Uglydawg

    Could be wrong and probably I am wrong…but it seemed that the last couple of years, every time Georgia hada first down in the redzone, (well, not every time but most of the time), Fromm would throw the fade to the left edge of the endzone. Usually, it didn’t work. Sometimes it did..but most of the time it put the offense behind the chains on second down. I think it was way too predictable and usually didn’t work because it’s a tough throw to make from a timing standpoint and also because the D knew it was coming.
    Pickens is a beast that will change how the offense works anywhere on the field, but esp in the redzone.
    I am really optimistic and excited about the offense. It won’t take much improvement to get the Dawgs over the NC hump.


  9. UGA '97

    Thats great, but when you cant even make the Effing FGs vs USChickens at home, the lesson learned is the OC needed a whipping. Coley’s shortcomings were hidden by the D all season, and the O really could have used more of those extended drives going into LSU game, but c’est LA vie. Good thing Coley’s gone.