I always like it when somebody else on the interwebs does my heavy lifting for me, and that’s the case with this gentleman who painstakingly compiled the regular season record for the fourteen conference teams based on Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric. Here’s what it looks like:
And here’s how that adds up by division:
Lane Kiffin, SEC Coach of the Year. That’s my first reaction. My second one is wondering how much heat Bryan Harsin gets after one year on the job. My third one is bracing for the hot takes from Vol Nation.
What do y’all think about those results?
Get The Picture 
My thoughts:
UGA wins 11, UF 9, UT 6, SC 4, Ole Miss 8, AU 7, TAMU 10. The rest I either agree with or don’t care.
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What on earth do you have to be smoking to think UCLA is good enough to beat LSU this year? Hard to get past that one.
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The early line is LSU -2. I suspect that’s a lot closer than a lot of people would have guessed.
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UF is UGA reincarnate. 10-2 and sitting at home while all the prettier girls get asked to the dance. That’s my takeaway.
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I don’t think the gaters win 10.Everybody hates them and this is good year to GATA. KY SC TENN. one or more of them will get em. #FTMF’S
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He’s not real high on Cajun Ed, huh?
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Yeeeeah… Just a given that the Dabo’s are going to beat the Dawgs. Yep, might as well not even show up.
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Clemson sucks.
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I view it as a “surprise!” game. Will I be surprised if the Dawgs win? Yeah, a little. Will I be surprised if Clemson wins? Not as much. We certainly can win and those tractor drivin’, farm animal lovin’ hayseeds need a good whuppin to shut them the f up.
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I think Tenn is a bit optimistic (Kentucky and Mizzou I think will be tough for them). I also wonder about A&M post-Mond era. The next QB will be either one of the longtime backups or a true freshman. Not that it can’t be a recipe for success. But more often than not that inexperience will bite a team.
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If we use the win totals per SP+ as the over/under, here are my takes:
Ole Miss: Under
Kentucky: Over
Mizzou: Over
Florida: Under
LSU: Over
Tenn: Push
UGA; Push
Bama: Push
A&M: Under
Ark: Push
SoCar: Push
Vandy: Push
Aub: Push
Miss St: Under
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Call BS….Dawgs 15 & 0 FWIS!
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UT and UF should be ashamed of their nonconference schedules
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Many SEC teams only play 1 power 5 OOC.
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Should FU get curb stomped by the bammers, fan fall out (some media fall out) and then the FU hc’s start’s to rival some of the “shark humpers” comments from the past, this season could get side ways early on…feels like uk will win one they shouldn’t and lose one they shouldn’t but still end up 6-6, but will have dented some ones season…
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UT is way over-rated. 4-8 most likely.
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I have a hard time believing that UT gets to 7 wins after everything they have had to endure this past year (for which I have great happiness). All the transfers, new HC, new offensive and defensive systems…it doesn’t lead me to believe they beat both UK and Mizzou. I feel like 5-7 or 6-6 are far more likely than 7-5.
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Georgia and Alabama are just a cut above at this point, so, duh.
Texas AM and Florida are the clear 2nd tier, but both are breaking in new QBs. So, random gets a few extra rolls of the dice with them.
The rest? All comes down to which team gets screwed by SEC officials decided a fumble is really a spike, a guy in the end zone isn’t really in the end zone, a receiver who ran over and kissed a cheerleader wasn’t really OOB on his route… in other words, totally random.
Lane’s track record has been scintillating opening act, major regression season #2 as teams adjust to his tape and tendencies. I think the Fightin’ Kiffins could seriously disappoint this season.
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11-1, undefeated in sec play so we control our playoff destiny? I’ll take that in a heartbeat. Hell I’m down to play Clemson twice so long as we win the second meeting or better yet both!
The only team that I think could surprise is Auburn. This is based on nothing other than the fact that their best seasons have occurred 1) after an Alabama national championship and 2) when nobody expects them to do much (I still remember thinking malzhahn was going to have a rough first season with Nick marshall as his QB)
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He DID have a rough 1st year, but was bailed out by Tray Matthews and by St. Nick with a one second gift from the refs!
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Someone there really overestimates the hillbillies. UF should be a little worse, UK and LSU should be a little better.
Most striking is how weak many of the schedules are. TAMU’s schedule in particular is an embarrassment. If Jimbo can’t get them to at least ten wins this season, then he’s as overrated a coach as many people say.
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UT loses to both Mizzou and UK and maybe SC too. 5-7 at best.
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Obviously, this was done before future Heisman frontrunner TJ Finley announced he was going to Auburn
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Who or what is PVAMU ? I am not going to look that team up…ponte vedra agricultural military university ?
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That would be powerhouse Prairie View A&M… 🙂
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Prairie View A&M University. A historically black college that played damn good football back in the day and sent players to the NFL.
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If this guy’s data ends up correct then TAMU is set up perfectly to make the playoffs over our Dawgs. Georgia would have to beat one or both of Clemson and Alabama in the SEC title game to get in the playoffs. Lose to Clemson and you have to beat Bama. If TAMU plays Bama close we can’t have two losses.
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Point taken, but I don’t think we can have two losses period and expect to get in. If we have two losses, we either lost in the SECCG or Florida after Clemson and it won’t matter.
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I think Missouri is WAY underrated on here. I don’t see them losing to all of Arkansas, Kentucky and UTjr. I think they win 2 of those, maybe all three. They return their decent young QB and most of their offensive line.
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Tennessee 7-5 is awfully optimistic
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I assume “Awfully” is the operative here?!?!
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No way UF beats LSU in Baton Rouge this year.
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Agree. Only way I see that happening is maybe UF is fueled by revenge from last year’s fiasco.
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L Sh Oe
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Too bad LSU won’t purpose moving that game to “the shoe” just to mess with UF. That would be hilarious.
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LSU is a shoe-in to beat FU!
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UT will go 5-7 with loses to Mizzou and Kentucky.
I think LSU pulls a win either over ole miss or Florida (would prefer it to be Florida) and they beat UCLA.
Arkansas goes bowling with a surprise win over Texas.
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This alone makes the cost of your blog well worth the money.
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LSU will be better.
If those results are correct, we will enter Atlanta having beaten one ranked opponent.
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Auburn and Kentucky might be ranked when we play them.
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Kentucky, possibly.
If those projections hold, Auburn would be 3-2, having beaten Alabama State, Georgia State and Akron, and with losses to Penn State and LSU.
Highly unlikely they would be ranked.
Kentucky would be 4-2, and would have just come off of consecutive losses to Florida and LSU.
They’d have to be ranked on the strength of their victories over Mizzou, So Carolina and ULM. Hard to really determine which of those might be the biggest scalp, probably ULM.
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I would be disappointed for Sam Pittman if those projections hold.
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If it doesn’t work out for the Pitt Boss, he has put away some cash for retirement.
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Hogtown zeros drop 1 more regular season game (possibly LSU) to go 9-3, TN doesn’t go better than 500, UK and Mizzou are in a dead heat zeppelin race for 3rd in the East…screw the rest…hopefully we lay the wood to Dabo’s boys and just start rolling downhill from there…GATA
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Tennessee loses to Ky, Florida loses to LSU.
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“….Far from perfect (both SP+ and just choosing higher ranked to win without Home/Away or anything),…”
Hrad to agree that is heavy lifting but at leat he wrote that. Having tex a&m 11-1 with only loss to bama, ranked behind FU with 2 losses validates the horse crap. It’s an off season start.
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UK beat MISS ST and UT by a combined score of 58-9 last year. And the last time they played Louisville, UK won by 46. Good chance UK can finish strong and end up 9-3, 5-3.
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