Ordinarily, I think these midseason ballots are a waste of time and money, but I’ll make an exception for once, exactly for the reason Bill Connelly cites.
What the committee does with Cincinnati is going to be incredibly revealing, not about the Bearcats, but about the committee itself.
Filed under BCS/Playoffs, It's Not Easy Being A Mid-Major
“We remember the Sugar Bowl, I think it my junior year of high school, we let Alabama beat us twice,” Brinson said of a team that also lost to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship game. “We’re not letting Alabama beat us twice. In the Sugar Bowl in 2018, they… thought they should have been in the playoffs and lost to Texas.” -- AB-H, 12/27/23
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Just don’t stick bama at second so they have a chance to stick with 2 losses.
That’s all I ask.
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I want revenge on Bama but belive Auburn beats them to face us in the SECC. Only 1 SEC school in the playoffs this year.
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It’s a real possibility… the ol’ Iron Bowl may be one for the ages (again).
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They gotta beat a&m first.
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IF they lose to aTm, and then beat Bama, good chance we see aTm, correct? Still one team in the playoffs.
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Thats how I have it. A&M wins the three way tie breaker if bama, a&m and auburn all end up 6-2.
If that occurs, I’d think the secw rep is win in atl or else as far as chances at the playoffs are concerned. In fact, its probably win or else no matter what. I don’t think any west team can lose in ATL and get in, but if those teams around the country with 0 or 1 loss start dropping, who knows? Selfishly, I’d like OSU and bama to both slide out this year.
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Both MS schools still only have two conference losses too. So much tiebreaker chaos still possible in the West.
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That won’t last and they play each other.
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True.
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Fuck me….
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Yep, you called it.
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Q3: Does head-to-head matter, i.e. will Oregon rank ahead of anOSU?
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How does Oregon’s loss compare to OSU? I think Oregon has lost anyways…
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Good question. OSU’s loss to Oregon was in Columbus, but Oregon’s loss was on the road to Stanford who is now 3-5. I think head-to-head should matter, but it is hard to discount that (i) Oregon’s loss was to a pretty bad team that might not even be bowl eligible by the end of the season, and (ii) since their loss OSU (especially on offense) has looked extremely good.
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If the selection committee takes absences into account, however, perhaps they give Oregon a little slack since their OC was out sick for that Stanford game.
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Correct, Oregon should get some slack for their loss. Their OC had some medical emergency and was ruled out like 30 minutes before kickoff.
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If you’re Oregon you say, “But OSU lost to a team that lost to Stanford”.
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Isn’t “Game Control” a metric used by the committee too? In the case of Oregon vs OSU, Oregon had a 55% or higher win probability starting when they took a 14-7 lead in the 2nd quarter and it never went below that mark.
In the case of Oregon vs Stanford, Oregon started as the favorite then fell behind double digits so their win probability fell below 50% in the first half. The Ducks rallied at the end of the first half and held a 60-90% win probability until Stanford’s last drive of regulation and then lost in OT.
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No drama about who #1 is;)
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#RatPoison 😉
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I’m gonna need him to define what a solid L is. Are Bama’s and tOSU’s losses equal? And do those losses look less solid if the Aggies or the Ducks lose more games down the stretch?
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Yeah. As soon as I saw that I thought, “now he’s just another a-hole grinding an axe”.
F Alabama and anOSU. I wish there was a way to have people make considerations without knowing the names of the teams that’s seasons were being described. As soon as some hear “Alabama” or “Ohio State”, their opinions are swayed, even if sub-consciously .
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He’s a stats guy, so…
A solid L would be a close loss to a statistically pretty good team such as Texas A&M or Oregon.
Not quite the same losses, but definitely close enough to be analogous in this context.
Yes, the losses probably would look less solid, but it would depend on who they lost to, and why they lost. Did the QB get injured then they lost to three top 25 teams? Or did roughly the same team start taking bad losses?
These kinds of comments are very different coming from a statistics focused writer, as opposed to some hot take talking head going off his gut.
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I agree on your points. Do you think the CFP selection committee has enough brain power to make that same measured analysis? It may all be moot in the end. There’s still a good bit of football to be played before the final 4 teams are determined.
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Bama lost on the road to a team that has 2 losses to rather average teams. Ohio State lost at home to a team that is likely going to be a 1-loss conference champion. I don’t think either loss is a solid loss for 2 of the true blue blood programs.
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Good points.
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As I pointed out about ee in the question about head-to-head, it is hard for me to say that Oregon should definitely be ahead of OSU even with a head-to-head win since Oregon’s loss to Stanford looks worse and worse each week since Stanford is now 3-5 and may not even be bowl eligible at the end of the season.
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I can definitely see that. There is a part of me that says if you’re one of the 4 best teams, you don’t lose as a favorite on your home field. If you do, you lose the ability to control your destiny. If that game happens in Eugene, I’m more likely to give anOSU a pass on the H2H. That’s why Cincinnati’s placement is so important tonight. If Cincinnati just needs to win out to make it because they start in the top 4 and Oklahoma and Georgia are undefeated, the last spot comes down to the B1G champion (assuming it comes from the east), Oregon if they win the Pac 12 with 1 loss, Wake if they are 13-0, and Alabama (if they were the SECCG loser in a super close game). If that comes down to Ohio State and Oregon because Wake loses and Georgia handles Alabama, I can’t turn a blind eye to the fact that Oregon and Ohio State played each other and the Ducks won.
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A two loss Alabama team (TAM & SECCG) shouldn’t get in any more than a two loss any other team. This giving them credit for the past is a bunch of bullshit. You think UGA gets in if they lose the SECCG and that’s their only loss? I bet we’d get screwed..yet we mention Alabama getting in with a loss to a mid tier SEC team, a close escape at Florida and a loss in the SECCG. That sucks if it happens.
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Totally agree
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2 loss Bama ain’t sniffing the 4…
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The fact that Connelly is smoking that Tosu cock makes it extremely difficult to think anything he says has any relevance or truth to it at all. He, like the media, is so full of shit about the Suckeyes.
THEY HAVE BEATEN NO ONE!
You know how everyone says Georgia ain’t played nobody? That’s actually true about Tosu.
They destroyed a bunch of terrible teams after struggling to beat Minnesota and losing to Oregon. Then, last week, they struggled to beat a Penn State team that’s probably going to finish 8-4.
Tosu SUCKS. They are, without a doubt, the most fucking overrated fucking team in fucking CFB every fucking year. And I’m sick of people like Bill Connelly and the media who NEVER take into account the shitty B1G teams they feast on every year as they continue to duck off this fucking team.
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LOL
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Tell em like it is, man.
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Totally agree..except that tOSU might be second to ND when it comes to being consistently overrated.
Have you ever had to deal with a OSU fan? They’re some seriously delusional folks. They’ll argue with you that their conference is the toughest and best..
How many wins does anOSU have against the SEC in history? Is it one or two?
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They’re why I don’t go to Hilton Head.
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It’s NONE— they beat Arkansas in the 2011 Sugar Bowl but I believe had to vacate the “win” because of ineligible players.
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They beat Bama in 2014.
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That’s true… these Playoff games never feel like Bowls to me.
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And that’s it. One win against the SEC in a zillion years.
They suck.
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Sounds like we need them in the final 4.
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Don’t sweat it Corch. Mel’s gonna get em
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This defense is no accident. Get the best players teach them to play as a unit. Always arrive quick fast to the ball with a bad attitude.
I’ll add composure and physicality to his list.
I love that Kirby gives the credit for success to the players and coaches never mentioning himself. Totally different than loser MuLLLLen.
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First, this first poll (and all of them save the last) are meaningless and useless. If we didn’t learn that there’s no divining anything from these after the whole Baylor/TCU fiasco, then I don’t know what to say.
That said! I’m interested in the Oklahoma vs Cincinnati angle. OU is getting a pass for their absurdly close flirtations with losses to really bad teams; meanwhile, Cincinnati is performing better against poor competition, but aren’t necessarily crushing them early. And what’s the narrative? Cincy is struggling, etc etc; OU is a shoo in. What? Cincy took control of the Tulane game in the 3rd quarter one week after OU needed a play to put KANSAS away in the 4th. KANSAS. Oh and BTW, Cincy beat Tulane by 19; OU beat them by 5 and gave up 35 in the process while the Green Wave had the ball with a chance to win with 2 minutes left. I’m sorry what now? Kansas. SMDH.
Oregon should be over tOSU until the Ducks lose again. They’re on the road this week, so it’s a matter of time, I think (although I hope not. Would love the Ducks to make the playoff).
We all know Bama is going to be in the top 4 because “bama.”
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Not to mention that OU beat Tulane in Norman because the entire Tulane program was uprooted by the hurricane and had to relocate to Birmingham to live and practice and then play in Norman instead of New Orleans.
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But, Tulane got to wear their home jerseys!
(I actually had forgot that tidbit)
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Hell, Clemson never played anybody and got in pretty consistently. In fact, if WF was Clemson right now, they’d be in the four.
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FACT.
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Well, now, Clemson passes the eye test, you know.
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Bama will be in the top four until Atlanta because Bama losing one game doesn’t mean jack squat. If we want them out of the playoff, we gotta beat them; hell of a de-facto “round one” for the undisputed No. 1 team.
I can hear it now: “Yeah Georgia was awesome all year, but I don’t know what happened in that quadruple overtime loss in Atlanta; they’re just not the same team they used to be. They really fell off a cliff. It’s sad. But…. Ohio State and Oklahoma have been on an absolute tear the last few weeks and Cincinnati’s undefeated! So… Georgia’s gotta be the odd man out.”
So, “just” beat Bama and I don’t give a damn who else they put in there.
I do catch a tone (in this blog’s comment section and elsewhere) that Bama is somehow a lesser team than the Bama we are used to. I sure as hell hope nobody in the locker room agrees with that, because it’s a bunch of shit. Bama is still Bama and they will DEFINITELY peak in Atlanta.
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I have to say, it’s really enjoyable to be in a position where I don’t have to actually care what happens with the rankings. Sure, it’s interesting as an academic pursuit and I’ll probably look on Twitter later as I’m getting ready to settle in for the Braves game, but as the only team in the country with full control over what happens to our postseason fate, life sure is nice today.
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It is a different albeit geat feeling. How do you feel abut Mizzou this Saturday?
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The point spread sounds about right.
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The first CFP rankings should be:
Georgia
Michigan State
Cincinnati
Oklahoma
Oregon
Ohio St
Alabama
Michigan State and Ohio State will sort themselves out, and Alabama could move up with wins over Auburn, Arkansas, and possibly in the SECCG. Ranking Bama or tOSUin top 4 already though sends a message that the actual outcomes of games do not matter.
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This is more accurate but I think Bama and tOSU could be flip-flopped. MSU deserves to be in top 4 at this point.
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I like this way of thinking.
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They’d be smart to treat Alabama and Ohio State in a way that leaves them in the conversation but forces them to earn it. Alabama will have a chance to prove themselves against #1 and win the toughest league in the nation in doing so, which puts them in. The last thing the committee wants is to be having to make excuses for a non-champ, two-loss Alabama team, so don’t put them so high that they’re backing themselves in a corner. To a lesser degree, Ohio State will get to “prove” themselves against Michigan State and Michigan (the B1G CG won’t help, but a loss could doom the winner of the East) in few weeks. Along those same lines, Oklahoma has two ranked teams left along with a decent Iowa State squad plus a rematch against one of those three teams in the Big XII CG. Oklahoma will work itself out and either solidify their standing and move up to #2 or remove themselves from the equation. Oregon is the biggest turd in the punch bowl. If Ohio State keeps winning, you have to keep them ahead of Ohio State. But they also won’t play anyone with less than three losses until selection day. They can’t do anything to move up except win easy games and hope Ohio State drags them up with them.
I’d go:
Georgia
Michigan State
Cincy
Oklahoma
Alabama
Oregon
Ohio State
Michigan
Notre Dame
Wake Forest
Oklahoma State
That’s it for the teams with any sort of shot. The rest of the list is just window dressing. I guess you could make a case for Auburn and/or Texas A&M if they managed to take down undefeated Georgia in Atlanta but that’s going to require chaos.
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I hate to see it, and I doubt it comes close to happening, but if AU wins out, they have a legit shot at the 4.
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I think Auburn could give Bama fits from a matchup standpoint, but they’ve lost their magic potion, which is getting Georgia and Alabama at home in the same year (2013, 2017). I’d give them a lot better shot if they had Bama in Auburn in a few weeks. I’d love to see the numbers, but I bet Auburn has one of the greatest home/road disparities in college football.
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Actually, Auburn does play Alabama in Jordan-Hare. That hasn’t changed. They just changed the date of our game to avoid playing us and Bama away in even years in the last three weeks of the season.
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And we let them, happily
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We get a bit of a breather late with the UT game…so that’s nice.
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Surely the distinguished committee will take into account that Bama suffered a win in the GLOOE…a win that looks worse and worse as the #FTMF season goes on.
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Nicely done!
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We’ll know how the committee feels about Cincy when we see where they slot Notre Dame.
Cincy has 2 wins over teams with winning records, and it’s not like they’re ending games before halftime, which Georgia is. “Undefeated!” got Iowa all the way up to #2. How’s that working out?
Cincy combines CFB’s two most romantic attachments: “undefeated!” + “underdog!” It blinds a lot of CFB romantics to the reality that Cincy is a good team with a weak schedule that would not survive the weekly grind of a P5 schedule.
Ranking Cincy 2021 next to Georgia 2021 is a damn insult
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I have a feeling either Ohio State or Alabama (or possibly, Michigan State) ends up in the #2 spot. I think the committee probably wants to send Cincinnati a message that you need to finish unbeaten and likely get some help to get in. Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if they are #5 tonight. Of course, I won’t be surprised if they are sitting at #2 either.
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I think you can put Michigan State above Cincy. It’s a lot harder to put Oklahoma above them, and Ohio State and Alabama present some serious issues. Oklahoma will eventually end up higher if they keep winning, but their resume at this point isn’t what Cincy’s is. That schedule ended up really back-loaded.
One of the arguments that’s going to be made for them re: placing them next to Georgia is that it took Georgia hitting a last second field goal in a neutral site game to win last year. I think we can all agree that this Georgia team is playing much better than that one, but the rosters are surprisingly similar for both teams.
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If I recall Cincy had like 9 Sr. Defensive starters last year. They were very good defensively, with a very good DC.
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If Ohio State is ahead of Michigan State, then the committee is saying that brand and “eye-test” is important. The smartest thing the committee could do is put Michigan State at 2 or 3 since Ohio State and Michigan State play on November 20th and the B1G will be sorted out. At least until Ohio State travels to Ann Arbor on November 27th.
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They never sent Clemmons that message when they hadn’t played a team with a pulse.
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Florida should be in the mix seeing as all of their losses have been quality losses with a few being wins by virtue of stats they accumulated over the winner. Look closely and you can see they actually beat UGA and Bama – stats don’t lie.
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That is some quality sarcasm right there.
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I say give UGA a bye week and let Cincy, OU, and OSU all play an extra play-in game to see how they actually look against each other — especially Cincy. I think Cincy is a great story, but when you play G5 teams most Saturdays, you’re running quite a different gauntlet than any P5 team. Bad showings against 1-6 Tulane teams go from close wins to losses when you play in the SEC and even B10 this year.
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The same people sneering about the quality of the SEC East simultaneously exalt Cincinnati. Would Florida be undefeated against Cincy’s schedule? Probably.
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Florida, Kentucky, aTm, Au, Ole Miss….I could go on.
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Would Florida, Auburn, TAM, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Ole Miss, be undefeated against WF’s (this year’s Clemson) schedule? Most likely
Thing that is really weird is that if Clemson was undefeated, they’d be in the top four right now. WF..in the same conference IS undefeated and not getting a lot of attention, (which is what dominating the ACC SHOULD get you). The selection process if f’d up with the practice of giving brownie points for a big name.
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Given how Florida plays down to their competition, I think they would find a way to lose 1-2 games on Cincy’s schedule, but probably not 4.
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Yeah, UF probably not a good example…point taken.
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You think UF has the discipline on defense to beat Navy? Or win at Notre Dame? that latter might actually be a good game.
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My vote
UGA
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BCS was better……
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The old bowl system was better.
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Why even have BOWLS? Used to only be 5-6… I guess that was better too…
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