So, who you got tonight?

On paper, it shouldn’t be close.  FSU has been so dominant statistically this season that it pretty much obliterates any strength of schedule qualms I might have about the final record.  The Noles are now favored by 10.5 and I believe I saw something this morning indicating that the favorite has covered the spread in the last six BCS title games.

But I’m having a hard time shaking that whole team of destiny thing around Auburn.  A monster fluke to win the Georgia game, an even bigger miracle to beat Alabama and the last piece of the puzzle falling into place with Ohio State’s loss in the Big Ten title game (but Delany was proud, proud I tells ‘ya, of the TV ratings) sure makes me wonder what the football gods have cooked up for tonight.

In the end, I’m going with my gut instead of my head and picking Auburn to pull the upset.  Because it’s been that kind of year if you’re a Dawg fan.

And you?

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102 Comments

Filed under BCS/Playoffs

102 responses to “So, who you got tonight?

  1. Bulldawg165

    I’m hoping for an FSU win just because I’m tired of seeing our rivals win the MNC. I suppose the proximity of both schools is only going to hurt us in recruiting anyway though.

    However, after seeing Bama get beat by Missouri and aTm play a close game with Duke (!) I think the SEC may not be as strong as everyone thinks it is this year. I think FSU wins but probably doesn’t cover the spread.

    • wnc dawg

      As an alum and watcher of both schools (whose rooting interests tip toward UGA), I’m very happy we didn’t have to play Duke this year. If you had watched them, there wouldn’t be any (!) type thinking.

      • Charles

        We’re in the same boat affiliation-wise. Cutcliffe has done a marvelous job. You see hints of the offenses that used to give us fits when he was in Knoxville.

        The fact that FSU shut Duke down to the degree they did… truly amazing defense. They’re such a powerful, physical team. I think they wax Auburn.

  2. 81Dog

    I can’t pull for Auburn. I can’t pick Auburn. I can’t bear the thought of those cheating stump jumpers lucking up into a BCS title. Go Noles.

      • Dawgaholic

        10,000 – Auburn deserved the death penalty. I’m pulling for the most lopsided victory in BCS history. Go Noles!!! (I also married into a Nole family – so if the Dawgs can’t give Auburn their annual post-Scam beat down I’d love to see the Noles do it.)

  3. Castleberry

    ‘Noles receivers will be too much for Auburn. FSU’s defense will be strong enough to break serve a few times and cover.

  4. Rex

    I think my head will explode if Auburn wins a second national championship this decade. Sometimes you have to dance with the devil. Go Noles.

  5. 3rdandGrantham

    I think it will be another rout, though not as brutal as the Bama-ND game last year. FSU wins something like 41-17, perhaps a bit closer if AU gets some garbage points late. Remember, if not for the miracle against us followed by another against Bama, AU would be sitting at 9-3 and ranked somewhere in the mid to lower teens. In such a case, Vegas would favor FSU by around 17 on a neutral field.

    Two miracle plays suddenly doesn’t make AU a more competitive team in facing FSU…that’s pretty much how I look at it (though I will agree that perhaps you should factor in destiny a bit here). FWIW, the big money is heavily tilted towards FSU.

    • Bulldawg165

      They would’ve went into OT against Bama without the miracle, so a loss was far from guaranteed. Sorry, I just had to get that off of my chest lol.

      I agree with the rest of your post though.

      • Sanford222view

        Not to mention they did go toe to toe with Bama the whole game to be in position to win the game. Was the returned field goal a fluke play? Yes, but the only lucky part about it was the kick was able to be caught in the end zone without forcing the player to step out of it. The rest was great planning and execution o Auburn’s part.

  6. wnc dawg

    I have no idea who will win tonight, but I sure wouldn’t put money against AU.

    On another note, I think people give too much credence to the “miracle” that beat Bama. Great play? Absolutely. But AU was tied with them, having just marched down the field, and going to overtime. That is not a fluke win like the GA game. 4th & forever, double coverage, tipped directly to player in stride, I mean, just come on.

    • Bulldawg165

      Dang. I suppose I should’ve posted this comment before my reply above at 9:12 AM. This is exactly what I’ve been saying too. A loss against Bama was still far from certain even without the kick six.

      Us, however, well, I just don’t want to relive that moment.

    • Russ

      Correct. There was at least some planning in the Bama win and a fallback of OT if the return failed. Our loss was a complete fluke and Murray still had us back down at the 20 throwing into the endzone to end the game. Blind luck by Auburn.

  7. sniffer

    I agree with your point about FSU’s dominance of their schedule but I think if its close in the fourth quarter, Auburn has a good chance. FSU has only been in trouble once (BC, I think) and not terribly tested at the end of games.

    Auburn, on the other hand…

  8. As we know anything can happen. Pulling for The Criminols but in a way would like to have an SEC team as the National Champions.

    • Anon

      Why does it matter what conference the National Champ is from? How has that helped UGA in the past 7 years? If anything it put us even more behind the curve.

  9. Dawgwood

    FSU has too much talent. If you have seen them play, it easy to see. On offense, I don’t think it’s all Winston, but his receivers. Those three kids are bad ass. FSU’s defense has allways been good, and will tonight. Hell, they had 11 guys drafted and still went undefeated this year. Fisher has that program going in the right direction. But with all that, and I will hate it, Auburn will find a way to win it with that horseshoe up their ass.

  10. Baitstand

    I don’t care for Auburn. But I care less for Rick Reilly. So, Auburn.

    • BulldogBen

      +1. Man, what a fall from grace. Growing up I read his article FIRST before anything else in SI. I can hardly stomach him now.

  11. Russ

    Well I need Auburn to win my pool so I’m holding my nose and picking the Warplaintigermen in the upset. Logic says no but that giant horseshoe in Gus’ ass defies logic.

  12. JasonC

    Pulling for FSU, but I really do think that Bobby Lowder or one of those Plainstiglesmen made a Faustian deal this year with the ways things worked out with Georgia, Bama and Auburn this year. Maybe I’ll find solace when the flames of hell have him weeping.

  13. Otto

    I will be pulling for Auburn and the SEC. Auburn is a very good team and people especially UGA fans want to forget they kept UGA out of the game for 3 Qtrs, I was there and saw the UGA fans leaving early. It is more of a question mark to me as to why they allowed UGA back in, rather than winning with a miracle.

    Yes they needed a miracle with Bama more so in the missed FGs than the kick 6. Bama needed a miracle to win a championship with a block FG goal against a mediocre UT team.

    I am not sick of our rivals winning, I am sick of our Athletic Department not making changes to keep up. UGA has the cash on hand.

    How much FSU has been tested is another question mark. Was Clemson their toughest game? What was there 2nd biggest game? How will they react if it is close going into the 4th? They are playing with the same talent base as the SEC, something that hasn’t happened in this BCS CG streak. It should be an interesting game.

    Keep the streak alive I’d rather see Auburn win, than hear the B1G, BIG12, PAC etc claim that the SEC is overrated.

    • Joe Schmoe

      Who cares what the other conferences say about the SEC, and why do you think the outcome of the game will make any difference in what they say? Of course the rival conferences aren’t going to want to admit that they have been the SEC’s bitch for the past decade. The outcomes of the games certainly haven’t kept Delaney and others from trying to downplay the SEC’s dominance.

      • Otto

        Very Naive, the selection committee will look at strength of the conf. UGA is not a media darling and may need the strength of the conf to get in a playoff especially if the team is not the SEC champ.

        Delaney’s downplaying doesn’t change the impact of voters, winning percentage does.

        • Joe Schmoe

          My comment was directed at your last statement about hearing the other conferences claim the SEC is overrated. They will do this whether Auburn wins or not (see Stoops comments over the past several years) because it is in there interests to do so. To your other point, I doubt UGA gains much in the eyes of the selection committee from AU winning this game.

          • Skeptic Dawg

            I agree with Joe on this. Auburn winning tonight will have zero effect on the Dawgs getting into the “playoffs” down the road. Additionally, during the Richt era, the Dawgs would have only made the 4 team “playoff” once (2002?). It will take more than Auburn winning tonight to get the Dawgs in.

            • Otto

              I disagree the ’07 team would make it with the current SEC winning percentage, and ticket sales. The ’12 may have made it after the close SECCG.

              People will claim what they want. The SEC has the highest winning percentage of AQ Conferences,:
              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowl_Championship_Series

            • Otto

              Further if this season played out in ’02 Michigan St would likely get the nod over Auburn. Conf. strength does matter, the SEC played their way into getting the nod in tie breakers by winning the BCSCG and BCS bowls.

    • Ed Kilgore

      So there’s another reason to pull for FSU: if Auburn wins, it’s another data point for Georgia becoming The Barn East. No thanks.

  14. Irishdawg

    I’m rooting for FSU in a big way. There is NO advantage to UGA if Auburn wins. They recruit the same players we do.

    • Bulldawg165

      So does FSU though, especially considering that they are closer to some good areas of the state, such as Valdosta, than UGA is.

      • RandallPinkFloyd

        We run into Auburn a lot more on the recruiting trail than we do FSU. If we run into FSU, we’re trying to sell the SEC image. Recruiting aside, I hate Auburn. Go ‘Noles.

  15. JC

    I think Florida St is going to beat Auburn tonight, but here’s hoping they do it in the most flukey, 1-in-a-million, heartbreaking way possible which will be replayed on highlight reels as long as anyone cares about college football.

  16. I honestly believe that FSU is at a different level than anyone else in college football this year. They have no weaknesses, only strengths. With Winston and those receivers, their strong running game, incredible D, very solid special teams, etc. I just don’t see AU having a shot. I’ll say…FSU 55 – AU 31.

  17. Timphd

    I like trucks. Auburn sucks. There are two teams I could never root for to win a NC. That would be Auburn and Florida. There are wild circumstances where I could even root for GT, such as playing against Corch and tOSU, but never ever can I pull for Auburn. GO NOLES!

  18. PHDawg

    My parents are Florida State alumni, as are several other members of my extended family. I also grew up in Columbus, so Auburn was 13th grade for my high school. In short, I don’t care what the score is, I just want to see lots of “well, that game sucked, but WDE anyway” from all the AU fans I know who are in Pasadena right now.

    • Ben

      Funny. My wife has those characteristics, but she hates auburn with a passion. Her first words the morning after the UGA/AUB game were ‘F****** Auburn.'”

  19. Nate Dawg

    I like drivin in my truck…go Noles.

  20. furp

    8 straight for the SEC and 5 straight for the state of Alabama? Aw hell naw! Go ‘noles.

  21. Scorpio Jones, III

    I won’t be shocked if the Iggles get the hell beat out of them, but since I am a confirmed believer in the relevance of football miracles in the overall scheme of things, I am all in.

    Some of us may think we hate Auburn, some of us think Auburn cheats, some of us talk about The University of Second Chances and all that, but until you have lived in Alabama as a true blood Auburn fan through the sixties, seventies and so forth, none of us really understand what suffering is.

    I lived through times when Tech was relevant in football…when all the “walk on alums” were Tech fans, when Georgia was an afterthought in the national conversation.

    That was nothing like the daily punishment Auburn fans suffered through the Bear years and again when Saban saved the Tide.

    So I know that tonight in Sylacauga and Montgomery and parts of Birmingham, Alabama there will be little groups of Auburn fans, little guys huddled around their radios and TV sets hoping for another miracle.

    I gotta go with them. Like Uncle Roscoe says, “At least we are in the conversation”

    As before, War Damn Eagle!!!!

  22. lamontsanford

    I’d like to see Auburn win…just to piss Delaney off and to hear everyone bitch about the SEC for another year.

    FSU should win easily–then again I wouldn’t be surprised if it suddenly started raining cheesesteaks to keep FSU from scoring a game winning field goal.

    Then the Auburn fans will clamor all season about how it was hardwork that won them the trophy–not a series of incredibly lucky and unlikely occurences. Sadly, no cheesesteaks will make it into the Malzahn statue that’ll be up by February.

  23. Roswell DAWG

    Auburn will win this game, just because. The improbable streak of luck will continue.
    And then we will have to hear the insufferable Auburn nation walk around Publix in their orange and blue button down shirts, smiling like they are on Qualudes and saying “War Eagle” to the deli attendant, the iceberg lettuce display and the shelf with the light red kidney beans……just because they think someone actually cares.
    It is going to be a miserable year.

    • Scorpio Jones, III

      Ros, if anybody can look them in the eye in Publix it would be a Dawg fan…they know, trust me, they do.

      • Roswell DAWG

        Publix is used as an extreme example of one the endless number of venues the Auburn fan it its mindless arrogance finds as a suitable setting for their declarations of “greatness”. Apparently, any setting is worthy of repetition of the WDE phrase; just walk around the supermarket and just repeat the phrase, hoping that someone is listening. Humorous to contemplate, and sounds a bit far fetched but typical. Further proof, that if you can’t go to a real university, you get to choose Auburn.

  24. Joe Schmoe

    As a UGA fan, I do not see how any self respecting UGA fan can root for Auburn in this game (if you want to pick them to win that is different). They epitomize everything bad about college football to me. Not to mention the fact that they are the poster child for the cheating that the NCAA turns its back on that prevents UGA from playing on a level playing field and maintaining a moral compass as the same time.

    Go Noles!

    • Scorpio Jones, III

      And your Noles, of course, are without stain….sheets or anywhere else, right?

      • The finer the bait, the shorter the wait!
        Just messin’ with ya. ;-)

      • Roswell DAWG

        At least our starting quarterback did not steal from his teammates, leading to his being dismissed from the team, with good reason, and can actually complete a sentence in the English language. Oh I forgot, that is the prototype Auburn QB – CAM the scam being the originator of this rather interesting approach to moral conduct. But, I guess somebody has to troll the bottom of the ethical gene pool – might as well be those Auburn Tigers! Or is it War Eagles? What the h do you call yourselves anyway?

  25. godawg

    My wife is an Auburn alum (I know…what was I thinking with when I did that?) and my daughter got her post-grad degrees there over my objections and still lives there. When AU won in 2011 they made my life hell with their constant harpiness. I hope FSU beats them like a rented mule.

  26. Turd Ferguson

    The most reasonable conclusion to draw from this season is that someone at Auburn sold his soul to the devil, and the program is currently reaping the benefits of that transaction. FSU can beat Auburn. But FSU cannot beat Auburn + Satan. So Auburn wins.

    • Scorpio Jones, III

      I still think its them dead trees, Turd…maybe Harvey Updike is the devil in disguise as a stupid Bammer.

  27. The Nightmare ends tonight. FSU 52 – Barn 24. We and our SEC brethren will get to ridicule the Barners for breaking The Streak. “Getting there” isn’t a good comeback, Aubies — how much credit to the Braves get for the 4 WS they lost?

  28. Tronan

    Auburn’s pact with the forces of darkness aside, the only way FSU loses is if it shits the bed on both sides of the ball. I know the ‘Noles’ schedule hasn’t exactly been daunting, but based on how many future pros are on their roster, they appear to be on the level of 2001 Miami and 1995 Nebraska. Tonight should prove once and for all if they really are that good. I think they are. 45-24 FSU.

  29. AusDawg85

    The enemy of my enemy is…FSU. But no matter what happens, it will be Mark Richt’s fault.

  30. FisheriesDawg

    FSU. FSU times a million. As a scientist, I like for my college football to make sense. Auburn winning a national title this year doesn’t make a damned lick of sense. Yes, I get that you can have individual results fall outside of the normal curve repeatedly, but the problem is that lots of idiots, our own fans included, try to use repeated outliers to shift the curve despite all evidence to the contrary otherwise. Plus, FSU has been absolutely dominant this season, and I love seeing dominant national champions. For instance, the 1995 Nebraska squad makes me giddy with delight when I think about them.

    Also, I want the players who win national titles to deserve them. Given the way almost all of this current Auburn team completely laid down last year when the going got tough, these kids don’t remotely deserve a national title. The effort they put forth against Georgia and Alabama to finish the season in 2012 was an embarrassment to the entire sport of college football.

  31. Jameis Winston puts his Heisman down long enough to gather up his tomahawk and add to the Seminoles war bonnets from the plucked tail feathers of the Auburn War Eagles.
    The Plainsmen are feeling magically unbeatable after snatching victory away from their two bitterest rivals. However, the members of Free Shoes University tribe have plenty strong medicine of their own and will get the job done easily. AHD’s Loser? Auburn ;-)

  32. Comin' Down The Track

    Gy’oh Noalies… Am I doing that right?

  33. FSU is better at 20/22 positions (21/23 if you add in the kicker). Auburn isn’t playing at home, like they were against UGA and Bama, and FSU is by far the best team they’ve seen all year.

    I keep going back to the Oregon-Auburn title game in 2010. Both offenses prey on teams who are out of position and aren’t used to the tempo they employ. Each defense came into that game somewhat maligned, but each had 4 weeks to prepare for the tempo and the assignments. When the game ended it was 22-19 and Auburn rushed for 5.1 a carry (254 yards). FSU has a better defense (by a large margin) than either of those two teams, and this Auburn team isn’t as two-dimensional as was the Cam team.

    As for FSU, they don’t rely on outflanking or out-quicking you. They simply have better players who out play you. Auburn didn’t find better players between Dec. 3rd and now. The DBs are just as bad as they were then. FSU can run it for 300 or throw it for 300. I just don’t see how AUB stops FSU enough to win. AUB might hang 31 on a very good defense, but no way they keep FSU under 31.

    • FisheriesDawg

      Well-said with the last paragraph. The underlying principle during the SEC streak has been that the team with the most overall talent and the best defense (Auburn’s defense kind of sucked in 2010, but so did Oregon’s so that’s probably a push) continues to win. Scheme hasn’t been much of a factor in these games whatsoever.

      FSU has the most talent and by a wide margin the best defense this year.

  34. Athens Dog

    Auburn is 26 -1 with quarterbacks kicked off other SEC schools for STEALING. I can’t pull for them. Plus I win the office pool if FSU wins. Go noles.

  35. Always Someone Else's Fault

    All of the psychology favors Auburn, and in a game like this, that means something. Winston has had to deal with the Heisman circuit. FSU players have been hearing and talking for 3 weeks now about how much better they are than Auburn, and that’s usually a red flag. I could see Auburn getting off to a fast start, and if that happens, you will see all sorts of panic on FSU’s sideline. I could also see FSU winning by 5 TDs. Didn’t we hear that team of destiny thing last year with ND?

    All I really know is that officials will be paying close attention to Auburn lineman being downfield on scrambles that turn into passes.

  36. Will Trane

    Not pulling for either. Will watch and see if another rabbit pops out the hat late in the game for Auburn. More interesting to see how Jimbo attacks AU’s secondary. Think there will be a heavy dose. Inside zone read. Interesting to see how FUS holds up against the run. AU can block and they have the speed.

  37. Biggus Rickus

    FSU is loaded everywhere and looks like an historically great team (on par with ’95 Nebraska), so I’m pretty sure Auburn’s luck runs out.

  38. ROLL TRIBE ROLL! Makes me sick to think of Auburn winning a second MNC in 4 years and doing it with a former UGA CB booted for thieving from his own teammates. Vomit. Guarantee this wouldn’t be happening if ole Marshall had previously enrolled in Tuscaloosa as opposed to Athens and that’s one stance I can’t fault Nicky for. If you think about it, its the little things that make the difference and why we haven’t won a title since before I was born in 1984.

  39. Macallanlover

    I am with wnc dawg and others, that wonder how the kick return against Bama was a miracle. It was just good coaching versus bad, and a mismatch of a kick return guy against slow fat guys that block for extra points. The miracle was the tip on a terrible throw hitting a receiver (who was clueless) in the hands, in mid stride, with his back turned to the play….that was more than strange/weird. The money the Aubies paid to repair Cecil’s House of the Lord was repaid in full on that play. Them beating MSU on a last second drive was more a miracle than the Kick 6, imo.

    With the SEC against OOC teams, I only go against the cheating Aubies, and dirty FU. I hope, and think, FSU will dominate the team from Alabama. Anything is possible in a football game but the depth of talent favors FSU, and their play was consistent all year long. Go Noles!!

  40. Just FWIW, to me the Georgia miracle is much greater than the Alabama one, and it’s not close. The Alabama one was just a kick return.

    The Georgia miracle required the Auburn man to be in exactly the right place, the ball to deflect exactly right, required Georgia to have a dumbass free safety on the field, and also required that safety not to do anything unusual, but what comes naturally .. the dumbass thing.
    ~~~

    • Macallanlover

      I know technically Matthews can/should be blamed for not slapping the ball down but I have a problem assigning too much blame to him. He didn’t see JHC at all, imo, and on his own the chances of any thing bad happening were pretty much nil beacause the ball was thrown horribly and the receiver was so far past the action. Interception or drop, didn’t matter, nothing could happen badly without JHC. Clemmons on the other hand did know where Matthews and the receiver was because he was running toward them. I assign 98% of the fault in deflecting the ball back into the “danger zone” to JHC and 2% on Matthews. Now, if EITHER had brought their hands from high to low, the Disaster in the Pasture would never have happened. Just a horrible, cheap-shot from fate.

      • Scorpio Jones, III

        And, Ivey, I find it troublesome when somebody calls a kid out personally…I doubt Matthews, or Josh Harvey-Clemmons is a dumbass.

        Like Mac says, this was a cheap shot from fate, hard to justify another cheap shot.

    • Bulldawg165

      I agree. I think that kick is returned for a TD 9 out of 10 times, and I think a 60 yarder falls short enough to be caught about 5 out of 10 times. If anything they were lucky that Saban didn’t consider the possibility of a kick six.

    • “required Georgia to have a dumbass free safety on the field, and also required that safety not to do anything unusual, but what comes naturally .. the dumbass thing.”
      You surprised me with the the “dumbass thing”.

  41. hunkerdowndawg

    This morning my son “Maybe that horseshoe up their butt has slipped out.” Maybe the FSU defense will knock it out. In 2010, Gus Malzahn won with offense and SCam. That team won by 3 points over Oregon who was nowhere near this FSU team on defense. FSU can score like Oregon and play defense like Bama (used to). If defense wins championships… FSU will win tonight 45 – 27.

  42. Slaw Dawg

    You can analyze what’s good or bad for UGA all you wanna, but it’s simple for me. I want Auburn to lose because I hate Hell out of ‘em.

    Whether they will or not is a much closer question. Don’t kid yourself-Auburn is a damn good team, at least on O and ST. FSU hasn’t seen an offense quite like Auburn’s. On the other hand, Auburn’s defense is little better than Georgia’s. If a wily Fate is at work here, it may be to give FSU an SEC opponent it’s more likely to beat (meaning, Bama has a better pass defense than AU). I call for something like 42-38 FSU.

    • Macallanlover

      Bama’s defense was built to stop an offense like FSU’s, they would limit the scoring better than I think AU will. On the other hand, the Tide’s offense would not work against FSU’s defense as well as Auburn’s will. I think the SEC representative would lose to FSU regardless of who showed up. They are just a very solid team with loads of talent. I have no idea how they lost that many players to the NFL and still are this good in 2013. Give them credit, this has been very impressive.

  43. fAUst

    Something tells me Jameis will fall like an old dried up oak tree. You can’t spell Faust without f st. Without f st, it’s all AU. Blame it on HU.

  44. Today is my youngest son’s 16th birthday. He told me he wishes for an “epic” (his word) Auburn failure. Since I can’t afford to buy him a new car, hopefully FSU will bail me out!

  45. Soccerdawg

    Who do we pull for, the thief who stole from his team mates or the assaulter who improperly touched a young woman. I will pull for neither.
    And I am tired of hearing about what a good quarterback McCarron, or Winston or …. To me Aaron Murray was the best quarterback.

  46. TomReagan

    I was voting FSU #1 in my Mumme Poll ballot for an awfully long time this year. I think Auburn has a better chance against them than Alabama would have, but no miracle tonight.

    FSU covers the spread.

  47. Cosmic Dawg

    14-3 Auburn as I write this.
    This is the stinkiest cfb season ever…since 2010.