Bud Elliott’s 2019 Blue-Chip Ratio

Bud is part of Vox’ new Banner Society group, which means I got this year’s analysis of talent accumulation via an emailed newsletter instead of by post.  In any event, here’s the list of all the teams that have signed more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-stars over their previous four signing classes, based on the 247Sports Composite:

Entering 2019, 16 teams meet the Blue-Chip Ratio mark.

• Ohio State 81%
• Alabama 80%
• Georgia 79%
• LSU 64%
• Florida State 61%
• Clemson 60%
• USC 60%
• Penn State 60%
• Michigan 60%
• Texas 60%
• Oklahoma 60%
• Auburn 58%
• Washington 54%
• Notre Dame 54%
• Florida 53%
• Miami 51%

Bud finds no surprises there, and neither do I.

The most interesting part of his analysis — and granted, it’s a small sample size, but still — is the hint of concentration.

The increasing number of teams might not be a trend, but increasing separation between the haves and have-nots? That could be.

In 2014, no team was above 75%. In 2015, only Alabama was. In 2016 and 2017, it was still just Alabama. 2018 saw Ohio State get into that super elite class.

Now 2019 has three of the four highest Blue-Chip Ratios ever (Alabama in 2017 was at 80%). Frequently, a team comes close to the 80% mark, but never have the top three all been anywhere near this high. And Georgia is fractions of a percentage point from cracking the 80% barrier with Alabama and Ohio State.

This is over a four-year period, remember, so for Georgia, next year’s ratio will take into account Smart’s classes after the 2016 transition.  As Bud notes, a high percentage is no guarantee of title success, but you’re not winning a natty without a high percentage.

How well does this list match up with whom Vegas believes will win the national championship?

Extremely well. The top 10 teams in the Vegas odds are all BCR schools.

Among the non-BCR teams, Oregon has the best odds at 33/1, while Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Wisconsin are at 50/1. That makes sense in some ways, since Oregon has a Heisman Trophy candidate QB, Justin Herbert, who will need to play more like his 2017 self. I’ve theorized that the first non-BCR team to win a title will do so due to having a special quarterback, and Oregon was the most recent non-BCR team to come close, thanks to Marcus Mariota.

Nebraska and Wisconsin could rack up wins thanks to easy schedules, but would face real questions about their ability to win three straight games against presumably BCR schools, in the Big Ten Championship and two Playoff games.

But for the most part, non-BCR teams do not make the Playoff.

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UPDATE:  A graphic graph.

There isn’t another program on that chart that can match Georgia’s climb.