Bud Elliott’s 2019 Blue-Chip Ratio

Bud is part of Vox’ new Banner Society group, which means I got this year’s analysis of talent accumulation via an emailed newsletter instead of by post.  In any event, here’s the list of all the teams that have signed more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-stars over their previous four signing classes, based on the 247Sports Composite:

Entering 2019, 16 teams meet the Blue-Chip Ratio mark.

  • Ohio State 81%
  • Alabama 80%
  • Georgia 79%
  • LSU 64%
  • Florida State 61%
  • Clemson 60%
  • USC 60%
  • Penn State 60%
  • Michigan 60%
  • Texas 60%
  • Oklahoma 60%
  • Auburn 58%
  • Washington 54%
  • Notre Dame 54%
  • Florida 53%
  • Miami 51%

Bud finds no surprises there, and neither do I.

The most interesting part of his analysis — and granted, it’s a small sample size, but still — is the hint of concentration.

The increasing number of teams might not be a trend, but increasing separation between the haves and have-nots? That could be.

In 2014, no team was above 75%. In 2015, only Alabama was. In 2016 and 2017, it was still just Alabama. 2018 saw Ohio State get into that super elite class.

Now 2019 has three of the four highest Blue-Chip Ratios ever (Alabama in 2017 was at 80%). Frequently, a team comes close to the 80% mark, but never have the top three all been anywhere near this high. And Georgia is fractions of a percentage point from cracking the 80% barrier with Alabama and Ohio State.

This is over a four-year period, remember, so for Georgia, next year’s ratio will take into account Smart’s classes after the 2016 transition.  As Bud notes, a high percentage is no guarantee of title success, but you’re not winning a natty without a high percentage.

How well does this list match up with whom Vegas believes will win the national championship?

Extremely well. The top 10 teams in the Vegas odds are all BCR schools.

Among the non-BCR teams, Oregon has the best odds at 33/1, while Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Wisconsin are at 50/1. That makes sense in some ways, since Oregon has a Heisman Trophy candidate QB, Justin Herbert, who will need to play more like his 2017 self. I’ve theorized that the first non-BCR team to win a title will do so due to having a special quarterback, and Oregon was the most recent non-BCR team to come close, thanks to Marcus Mariota.

Nebraska and Wisconsin could rack up wins thanks to easy schedules, but would face real questions about their ability to win three straight games against presumably BCR schools, in the Big Ten Championship and two Playoff games.

But for the most part, non-BCR teams do not make the Playoff.


UPDATE:  A graphic graph.

Screenshot_2019-08-08 Bud Elliott on Twitter 👀That Penn State Blue-Chip Ratio trend line Maybe why myself, 38Godfrey ralph[...]

There isn’t another program on that chart that can match Georgia’s climb.


Filed under BCS/Playoffs, Georgia Football, Recruiting

12 responses to “Bud Elliott’s 2019 Blue-Chip Ratio

  1. Russ

    Next year should see us above 80% and Florida below 50%, right?



  2. Clemson’s obviously got a huge signing class coming down the pipe, but that comparative blue chip rate shows they have a smaller margin for error than the three schools stacking 80% blue chips year over year. Their hit rate during this run is just unbelievable.


    • Apparently that goofball can coach some kids up. Scary to think how good they might get when he really starts stacking talent.


    • W Cobb Dawg

      I think Kirby also deserves a little more credit than simply signing blue-chips would imply. He’s picked up some fine 3-stars like Kindley, Rice, Davis, Grant, Stokes, and Marshall. Five or six 3-stars among the 22 starters shows Kirby isn’t entirely reliant on landing 4 and 5-star players. He can find and develop hidden gems as well as anyone in the business.


  3. Wedflatrock

    Big gap between 3 and 4


  4. GruvenDawg

    Curious if Bill’s info accounts for attrition? The info continues to point out just how dominant Saban has been in the talent collection department.

    It appears for the second cycle in a row (2019 and 2020) FSU, USC, and UCLA being down the talent that would normally be distributed at those schools is being taken by OSU, Bama, and UGA and possibly a couple of others (LSU, and Clemson) allowing the teams to hit close to 80% blue chip ratio. Crazy the gap between those schools and others in this years rankings so far.


  5. DawgPhan

    PSU has a similar trajectory, but just a lower starting point.
    Coach Day is taking over a loaded team.

    It’s been an amazing run of recruiting. Having been to the playoffs sure beats being on this list and being the team that had never been to the playoffs or title game.


  6. Macallanlover

    The size of the gap is the first thing that grabs your attention, but then, the average of the 3 big Florida schools in a talent rich area is startling. Yes, the big schools are picking the state clean, but you would think the distance from South florida and any of UGA, Clem, or Bama would afford them enough protection. Add in earlier playing time and the recent weak performance of FSU/Miami and there must be an awful stench around Gainesville.

    Need to throw more dirt on those scumbags in 2019 to make sure they stay down as a desirable place to play. Hope LSU, and even The Barn, stomps a mud hole in their slimy carcasses while two of Miami, TN, SC, and Mizzou wins add to their misery. Then with us in JAX that would put them about 7-5. That should do it for their “comeback” hopes.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. To me is says Clemson and Oklahoma are over performing and Texas, USC Penn State and Auburn are under performing.


  8. Uglydawg

    FSU is under performing. They’re a point ahead of Clemson.