You got that right, Bruce.
With apologies to those jonesing to watch Hawaii swing into late night action, I’m going to spend my blogging effort here on the first game of the night, Florida-Miami.
Michael Irvin is pumped.
This should come as no surprise.
It’s a neutral site game and Florida comes in as around a seven-point favorite. Bill Connelly thinks the Gators will cover the spread.
As much as it pains me to say it, I don’t think that’s an unreasonable expectation. While, as this chart notes, overall talent for both teams is fairly even…
… the experience level at quarterback definitely favors Florida.
That being said, I don’t think that alone is going to be the deciding factor tonight. For one thing, these coaches know each other, and in some cases, know each other really well ($$). Diaz worked for Mullen. Grantham and Enos have faced off against each other in the SEC wars. Moreover, Miami’s defensive strategy isn’t going to be a blank slate for Florida, as Diaz was the ‘Canes DC last season under Mark Richt.
So everybody knows what everybody’s up to, which makes for some interesting history to track. Start with Franks’ passing on third downs last season.
It wasn’t his strong suit: 36-81 (44.4%), 2 TDs, 1 INT all added up to a 100.73 passer rating. Can you guess whose pass defense was really good in third down situations last season? If you picked Miami’s, give yourself a gold star. Diaz coached these stats: 39-98 (39.8%); 5 TDs; 6 INTs; 78.77 passer rating.
You’ve got two very aggressive defensive coaches who will be calling a ton of blitzes against two very shaky offensive lines. Mullen, obviously, will do what he can to avoid putting Franks in third down passing situations, but Miami has its own problems dealing with pressure. Check out this bit of 2018 awfulness:
If you’re looking for whether Dan Enos is going to have a positive impact this season with Miami, start with that. Because Dan Enos loves the screen pass.
When Dan Enos was head coach at Central Michigan in 2014, he recruited David Reese. The Florida linebacker and Michigan native recently recalled Enos, now Miami’s offensive coordinator, as “a really great guy.” That’s nice, but Enos’ personality isn’t what Reese remembers most about the 51-year-old.
Reese remembers the screens.
All eight of them. During Reese’s freshman year in 2016, Arkansas, with Enos as its offensive coordinator, beat Florida, 31-10. Austin Allen, the Razorbacks’ quarterback that day, went 8-for-8 on screens for 115 yards (14.4 yards per attempt), according to Sports Info Solutions,
“They threw the most screens in a game I’ve ever seen in one game,” Reese said.
Grantham is going to go balls out attacking the line of scrimmage, because that’s what Grantham does. In this case, it’s an especially good strategy against a green quarterback and an inexperienced offensive line. There’s also a decent chance the Gators run blitz Miami’s rush game into being ineffective, which takes away one obvious means of reducing the pressure on a rookie QB. If Miami can’t use a screen game to take some pressure off Grantham’s scheme, it’s going to be a long night for Enos.
I’m not forgetting what’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander, but Florida, with its secondary and second-year coach and quarterback, would appear to be the better equipped team.
The real wild card, of course, with questionable at best offensive lines and aggressive defenses, is turnovers. Last year, Florida was +12 in turnover margin. Miami was minus-1. You tell me how that breaks tonight and you’ve probably got a very good chance of calling the winner.
As usual, comments are there for a game night thread. Have at it.
Get The Picture 
I think UF wins comfortably. Bill’s 10 points is probably the most likely scenario based on the teams a year ago, but UF should benefit from continuity vs. a program with some transitional issues. While Diaz’ tenure as DC mitigates half of that transition and Miami’s O can’t be worse, it isn’t likely to magically get better either.
Did Donnan improve our offense on 96? Did Kirby improve our offense in 2016? Did Meyer improve UF in 2005?
Richt improved our offense in 2001, but he was left with a lot of good players on O. Miami doesn’t have that.
We wore UF down last year because we have a lot of offensive talent. Miami has literally NONE of the types of players that made the difference against UF.
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I couldn’t understand anything Michael Irvin said but I am fired up after watching him!
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Miami QB play was awful last year. I think it gets a lot better tonight.
Turnover regression to the mean. UF recovered 75% of opponents fumbles last year.
Special Teams for Miami last year (especially punt) was awful. Miami ranked 115. UF ranked 20th. Miami should be at least average.
I am taking Miami for the win.
(*Wildcard might be the play of Emory at QB for UF)
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Thinks Irvin is an idiot….
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To bad Mark Richt has lost control of the U.
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Actually, kind of. Miami was very Richt-ish in this game:
—lack of discipline and horrible penalties
—special teams meltdowns
—lack of talent and depth on offensive line
—bad “luck” and finding ways to lose
Díaz has his work cut out for him, just like Kirby did when he took over.
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Senator, you must be jonesing, that’s a lot of ink and thought on the gators. Getting the creative juices flowing for games we should care about?
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If you can’t get up for the first game of the season…
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Come on it’s the first game of the season. It’s also a game the Gators could potentially lose to much embarrassment. That will always be worth the ink.
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“… the experience level at quarterback definitely favors Florida.”
Franks is a mystery to me. Looking at his physical gifts, he ought to be great, and in fairness, I don’t routinely watch UF games so my main frame of reference is from the WLOCP games, but he’s been, well, mediocre at best in those games. So if the quarterback experience level is not good, I am not sure that is a real advantage. Still, UF is the better team on paper and every pundit seems to think Mullen is a genius coach, but with the happenings in Gainesville the last few months I wonder about the gators psyche. Gators win the game, but don’t cover.
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On throws beyond the line of scrimmage last year, Miami’s comp% was just 42.1% – worst in FBS & worst by a non-option P5 team since Missouri in 2015.
And all this time, I was under the impression that Richt was taking a nap during 6-3. Turns out he was taking notes.
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So those Florida players are going to be inspired by a minor league baseball player who was a UF QB when they were in 3rd grade?
That shit is a play to the age 30 plus Gator fans.
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For everyone who dissed College Gameday at the Magic Kingdom, it was pretty darn good TV.
For tonight’s game, my heart says the U. My head says FU. I still the Jorts are way overrated, but they win tonight (To the Man Upstairs, please make me wrong).
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Just remember that the Gayturds think they are the best in the SEC & beyond. They could come in over-confident and half-stepping in their arrogance and get their asses kicked. Go Canes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Go Canes!
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I’m hoping Diaz/Enos run the flea flicker on the first play. If they do, and execute it, cousin Eddie might explode. My heart is on U, but also, my head says UF. I do think Miami could win, depends on how the players handle what’s between the ears.
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My deceased neighbor gave me his Miami caps and I’ll wear one tonight in his honor at a watering hole that has a few FU fans and alums. One of my Dawg hats will be over it until the first Miami score. Here’s hoping they score early and often.
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A great plan!
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FWIW, it is weirdly cool, overcast, and breezy in the southeast today. A new hurricane is also forming in the Atlantic.
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Watching Aaron Murray on CBS College Football Live and he mentioned “3rd and Grantham” multiple times. Hilarious. And a DGD.
Currently watching Villanova at Colgate. Hey, it’s football.
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If anyone saw 3rd & Grantham up close, it would be Aaron Murray.
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My first thought about attacking a Grantham defence? Wheel route. All. Day. Long.
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It’s worth noting that UF has only beaten Miami once since the early 1980s, and that was with arguably their best team in school history (2008). Miami has won 7 of the last 8.
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Spurrier was a chicken $#!+ for convincing UF to pull out of the Miami series … sort of like we will if we decide to tuck tail and run from Jacksonville.
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There’s Something About Timmy…
Still using corch’s hand-made hair gel, I see. Gotta wonder what the 20 year olds he plays with/against in the minors must think of him.
I’m hoping Enos took some notes from the 2011 UGA-Boise State game. That offensive attack was a disaster for Grantham, even though UGA had far superior talent. And it taught me to never underestimate Grantham’s ability to f#*k up. I’m going with Miami and the points.
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Guys, I’m not gonna say something crazy like root for the gators or anything. But if they are undefeated when they play us, isn’t the spanking we give them that much more enjoyable?
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Spanking FU is enjoyable whether they’re unbeaten or 0 for the season.
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Beat the rush! Hate Florida early (and often).
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A fU loss would be great for recruiting as well a loss to FSU later in the season. When they’re not the premier team in the State, their days will be long and dark…beautiful thoughts
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Bet the under.
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I am doing just that, and I am one who rarely bets that. Both defenses are better than the offenses they will face, and Miami could be disruptive. Franks has talented receivers to throw to but is usually very bad under pressure. Would not bet this game at all if it was next week when there will be several options that look more comfortable. But it is the only game in town, and i am itching for some CFB action.
I could make a case for giving, or taking, the 7 point spread. Usually in a low scoring game, a TD is an attractive bet to make. I am resisting so far. Might take Arizona in the late game instead, I feel like Tate is going to be utilized more effectively this season. Just good to have some football to watch, and if I get to see the gayturds lose it will be a great way to start CFB. Sic ’em Canes!
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Echoing some others here: heart wants Miami to win, head says UF wins.
Both Grantham and Diaz (or his DC in this case) like to dial up the pressure, sometimes at the expense of sound tackling, but Miami’s o-line was just awful last year (how does Stacy Searels keep getting work?). I don’t think Miami gets that fixed in one offseason.
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A 50-49 2 OT barn burner would sure be appreciated. So I expect a 3-4 showcase of incompetence.
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1st week of the season; 1st meteor game of the season. Hey, it’s still football.
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Watching..UM is pretty bad.
True freshman QB looks like a true freshman. So far, (‘about the middle of second quarter), Mullens has had to gamble with fake punt from his own side of the 50 and a couple of fourth down gambles. Florida is regressing to the mean on turnovers..having lost two fumbles already. 7-6 right now…turds on top.
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QB is a redshirt freshman. Stat line looks pretty good to me right now.
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4th quarter..he looks like a qb that enjoys getting sacked. Panics and runs out of bounds for a loss when he could have thrown it away. Kids got guts and will be good but he ain’t there
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Don’t get me wrong. I’m pulling for the kid and for UM. But his inexperience and that bad offensive line aren’t a good combo.
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If Canes can wrap up this game is on the verge of a bad beating in their favor.
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Dan Mullet trying to laugh off being overrated, don’t worry Dan, we all know
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Throw in a classic 3rd & Grantham on that TD drive.
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Suspensions, huh?
”failure to live up to the Gator standard,”
Hell, if you can’t live “up” to Gator standards, a stint in Starke is a definite possibility.
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Regression to the mean, bitches!
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Miami’s defense did settle down eventually, and considering how awful that offensive line is, I think the freshman has been pretty good. He has held the ball too long, but he also hasn’t forced anything or put the ball on the ground. I think Florida’s still better and will probably rally to win, but Miami has at least put themselves in position to have a shot late.
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Man, Miami’s starting field position has been murder..and then they get so many penalties. The fact that Florida hasn’t been able to put them away is kind of a beautiful thing!
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Here’s hoping 34-7 is the final. Double Tony and learn how to wrap up Perine and Franks and it’s doable
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Frank’s May bethe greatest ever in the second half, but so far the RFresman Miami QB looks better than him, taking into account the quality of the U’s O-line.
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That line is really bad. They have a zillion penalty yards too. Yet, Florida is losing in the fourth. A team with virtually no offensive line or running game is beating Florida..
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Surprised they didn’t call a personal foul on UF on 3rd down….Grantham D’s remain true to form
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These weak PI calls are killing UM. They’ve been playing with their backs against the wall all game on both sides.
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Maybe those pass interference calls explains the great passing statistics in the Big 12
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Franks should be pretty good once he gets a few more years in this system, say when he finishes his PhD.
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You think he’s PHD material? I doubt he can spell thesis, let alone defend one.
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We used to joke that Ph.D. stood for Piling it high and deep (not so subtle fecal/BS reference). I imagine Franks would be pretty adept at that based on his behavior on the sidelines at many points in the game tonight.
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Those lizards are tired!
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Miami has really outplayed Florida. It’d be a shame to lose because of special teams, but if they do lose this thing 24-20, it’s going to be for that reason.
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Dammit
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UM must have fifty penalties. What a sloppy-assed game.
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UF has the best secondary in America? My ass.
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The mighty gators gonna clean their game up with the two week break. Give Grantham a raise and an extension.
#fuyouknowtherest
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What an embarrassment. I’ve never seen a sloppier game. If UF is No. 8, college football is in trouble.
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4th and Grantham strikes again
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I really don’t care who wins this shitshow at this point. Both teams suck.
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Florida May have held on for the win, but Franks didn’t show me nothin’, and that is one duuuumb Gator secondary. Looking forward to Jacksonville.
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I think there were more penalty yards in the game than there were offensive yards. I also think Mullens is an idiot for being exuberant after the game. It was probably the most miserable football game ever played.
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Dan Enos, the left Tackle and this QB are the best worst combo I’ve seen in CFB in years….maybe ever?
Tate martell must be reeeeeelly awful.
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Kirby would have been livid in his postgame if we had played like that. We are going to beat the shit out of those clowns in Jacksonville. Can’t. Wait.
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what a horrible game by two horrible teams. fU fans will be gloating all week, but if this were UGA playing like that I’d be very worried about the season. fU won, but still lost lmao.
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fU loses despite beating UM
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That was… comical.
Florida is going to get drilled by anyone who can protect their QB.
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Yup. Gon beat that ass.
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Canes beat the spread. FU didn’t cover.
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They said Florida was back. Turns out, Franks is back.
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I know da U’s Oline is really poor, but if we don’t find a way to block #92, we’re gonna be in trouble.
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I get what you are saying, and I don’t disagree with you, but I think our O-line and Miami’s are worlds apart.
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Perils of cutting the cord: Charter went out at 6:45 last evening and didn’t come back on until sometime after 1 this morning. I have not seen any videos of the game. I’m looking at the box score… how in the hell did Miami lose?? It looks like the young QB played well, they had a RB nearly hit the century mark, and FU’s offense stunk up the joint. Normally I’d try and watch a replay, but it sounds like the game was a snooze fest.
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Oh contraire… it was a glorious mess, I quite enjoyed watching reality slap the gator fan base right smack dab in the face.
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Townie’s correct. It was a shitshow along the lines of ut-gt last year. Florida is really not good. I don’t see 10 wins this season, more like 6-6. Grantham’s blitzing is going to get them picked like a chicken by most any team with a pulse, and obliterated by a team with a strong running game. (You-know-who 😉 )
#92 for uf is a really good player, probably all-SEC. But I suspect Kirby has something for that just like the dude from Kentucky last year. I’ll slide over to Alligator Alley later, just to see the reactions….
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Did anyone else have the same thought as me when Martel went in to take one snap and run it left into a wall of gators for no gain? SMH,
Also, if the UM field goal kicker makes that chip shot, they could have made CMR’s dream come true on their last possession.
Florida is a team of undisciplined punks…esp. Franks.
The refs didn’t have a clue. Someone has said it’s the same crew that screwed UGA against ‘Bama…if so, we know now it was incompetence and not fixed.
FSU QB has talent but largely unseasoned and it showed..He took a zillion sacks…horrible OL made it worse.
Mullens seemed very happy to get that win. Saban, Kirby, Boom, most coaches would have been pissed off after that shitshow.
“Shitshow” should be a lexicon word for a shitshow.
“It’s hard to describe but I know one when I see it”.
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