I’ve mentioned Max Olsen’s stop rate metric ($$) before. If you don’t remember, here’s his definition: the percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs.
Week 12, here are the top ten teams in stop rate:
This week’s Georgia game, then, features the number three versus the number ten FBS defenses. Safe to say that sustained scoring drives are going to be hard to come by for both offenses.
That should put a premium on not turning the ball over. (Duh.) The other thing likely to be magnified in a defensive struggle is field position. Field position starts with special teams. And special teams when nobody is scoring much means punting.
On paper, Georgia carries a slight advantage over Auburn, believe it or not. Georgia ranks seventh nationally in punting (46.76 average); Auburn is 44th (43.35 average). Georgia is tied for first in allowing the fewest punt returns, with only four, while Auburn has given up 11, which is only 55th (and, perhaps more alarmingly, has allowed its opponents a return average of 21.91 ypr). Auburn has a slight (12.44 vs. 11.67 ypr) advantage over Georgia with regard to its own punt returns.
That’s all nice, but if there’s one characterization of Jake Camarda’s season, it’s that it hasn’t been one of averages. Here’s what his game log to date looks like:
He has been the proverbial girl with the curl in 2019. When he’s been on, he’s been terrific, and when’s he’s been off, he’s been off. What’s most concerning there is that two of his worst games have come against the toughest opposition Georgia’s faced this season, in pressure packed situations. Auburn surely qualifies as a similar environment, something the team’s veterans have been warning the younger players about.
How Camarda handles that is going to be one of those crucial items that ordinarily might be easy to overlook, but shouldn’t be.
Get The Picture 
Much of the Stop Rate Metric is tied to the teams’ offenses and special teams. (I’m Capt. Obvious here)
“Number of drives” is subject to number of games played so far.
It’s also tied to how long your offense holds the ball on drives..thus shortening the game.
“Three and outs” is tied to field position and special teams. If a team is pinned deep and won’t throw from it’s endzone or thereabouts, it’s easier to get a three and out.
Playing in a torrential downpour would also factor.
But having played LSU is a huge skew.
Those things in consideration, Auburn has one hell of a defense. So does Georgia.
Georgia is going to have to bring a more open offense than we’ve been seeing to win. Dawgs could win with the same old grind, but I don’t know if my fingernails will survive.
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Would not mind seeing a couple of punts actually returned on saturday.
I know some of that is driven by the actual punts, but we dont seem to want to return the punts either.
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Would enjoy seeing some actual blocking during those returns as well. We don’t go for the blocked punt, and we apparently don’t set up for the return, so what would you say they do here, anyway?
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I noticed last week, Georgia used 2 blocking backs in the Missouri game (Cleveland and Salyer). In the past they used 3. I’m not sure when they made the change or why. Does it give them more protection at the line? More flexibility for when or if they want to fake on 4-11? Not sure, but I get nervous about pressure on Camarda.
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On Camarda, he’s had two bad games. His Florida stats consisted of two punts from Florida’s side of the field, one of which was downed at the nine, and one that went into the end zone. I would argue that under the circumstances, his performance against Kentucky was as pressure packed as any game this season. The game turned on Kentucky being the first one to blink on field position.
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Stats say…score quickly, don’t punt. Simple.
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mumble mumble something something long snappah
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Camarda stands to get a bunch of work Saturday. That scares the hell out of me. It seems the higher the stakes, the worse his punts. I still haven’t recovered from watching him in Baton Rouge last year.
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That’s all fine and dandy with Camarda, BUT how many of those kicks flew into the end zone, negating 20 yards?
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He has 6 TBs and 11 downed inside the 20. His net average is 41.6. He’s not Niazelek, but he’s not a bad punter.
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That was my complaint earlier in the season, but it seems like he’s starting to figure that out. Hope it continues to improve in Auburn because we’re going to need him for sure.
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Well, seeing as I’ve defended him in this thread, he’ll probably go out and shank three punts Saturday.
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correction: auburn total punt return yards per game = 21.91 & not average YPR.
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He was saying Auburn’s opponents have averaged 21.91 per return, which is accurate. In fairness, 11 returns is a small sample that’s skewed by four returns, three of which happened in the first two games. Still, it’s something that Georgia could maybe exploit. Blaylock has shown some ability.
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