“But just because something is difficult doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be tried.”

There’s a good piece from Seth Emerson this morning ($$) about why and how the powers that be can put together a 2020 college football season.

His premise is pretty simple:  “College athletics faces a bad choice and a worse choice. The bad choice is trying to play through a pandemic. The worse choice is giving up before trying to have a season.”

He’s less cynical than I am about the financial motivation to play, but I do think that there is a non-financial element involved.  Hell, I want college football as much as the next fan does.

Anyway, the key part of his piece is something you amateur epidemiologists can ignore, since you do all your research on Facebook, but for the rest of us, it’s a good outline of the parameters the sport faces:

Dr. Christina Proctor is a clinical assistant professor in UGA’s College of Public Health, specializing in health promotion and behavior. She also happens to be an avid runner and understands the desire to pull off playing any season, as hard as it may be.

“Can it (a football season) be done with no risk? No. There is always going to be a risk as long as COVID-19 is circulating, and of course, that risk increases with contact sports,” Proctor wrote in an e-mail. “Your lowest risk activity would be individual drills or conditioning. Team-based practices increase risk. There’s even more risk with scrimmages, and then highest risk would be playing teams from a different geographical area.”

That’s the hard part. But then Proctor adds:

“I will say as an athlete myself and someone who loves sports, I know that athletes have a short timetable and missing a season or year could jeopardize their future, so I empathize with the situation. There are procedures we can put in place to lower risk.”

Practicing in small groups. Virtual team meetings. Fewer or no visitors to practices and no non-essential visitors to practice facilities. No athletes with any symptoms should be showing up to practices or games, and regular testing is a must. Players with pre-existing conditions, such as severe asthma, diabetes or auto-immune disorders should be kept away from what Proctor called “high-risk activities.”

How do you socially distance while playing football? Well, you don’t. But that’s not as much of an issue if you have the resources to test regularly, such as on game days and at least once during the week, according to Dr. Travis Glenn, a professor who specializes in environmental health science.

“They’re going to be able to put into practice things that are going to be able to keep their players mostly safe,” Glenn said.

Dr. Glenn goes on to state the obvious — the less resources a program has, the harder it will be to meet that standard.  Did I mention that two of Georgia’s first four games are against ETSU and UL Monroe?

Bottom line here, college football starts with two structural problems.  One, unlike professional leagues, authority isn’t concentrated in a central office, but rather, it’s diffused in the conferences.  That lack of conformity means a program like Georgia’s, presumably doing everything it can to minimize risk, is still going to run into issues when it faces off against a team that can’t or won’t do so.

The second problem is self-inflicted.  When your position is that college athletes are students first and athletes second, you can’t really isolate them the way the professional leagues are planning to do with their players.  And if you can’t isolate these kids on college campuses, keeping them away from Proctor’s “high-risk activities” is going to be nigh on impossible.

In other words, even at schools operating with the best of intentions, the odds are there is going to be a week during the regular season when COVID-19 rears its ugly head, and does so in significant numbers.  What happens then is going to be the real challenge between bad and worse.

74 Comments

Filed under College Football, The Body Is A Temple

74 responses to ““But just because something is difficult doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be tried.”

  1. Paul

    I see two primary issues. “going to be able to” is a long way from actually doing it. Will teams do what they should? The second issue is “what happens then.” If anyone is talking about this I haven’t heard it. It makes me wonder if they’re even thinking about it. I’m afraid they’re going to make it up as they go along. And “what happens then” in the SEC isn’t likely to be the same as “what happens then” in another conference. Heck it isn’t likely to be consistent from team to team inside the same conference.

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  2. practicaldawg

    Good take. There is simply no “good” decision. And even the decision we want will probably punch us in the balls. What happens when the entire OL tests positive the week before a key opponent?

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    • Russ

      Yeah, that’s the thing. There will be entire position groups test positive. If they all sit out the next (2?) game(s), how will that team even be able to play? I think there has to be a good, solid treatment plan that everyone can agree on before this will really be handled.

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  3. FisheriesDawg

    If I’m Georgia, I’m footing the bill and telling ETSU and UL-Monroe that we’re testing all of their players (using an independent lab to prevent any suspicion of shenanigans) the morning of the game.

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    • DawgPhan

      You think that UGA can just forced medical tests on another schools students?

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      • FisheriesDawg

        Nope. But they can tell another school they’re not going to host the game. I’d be interested to know if they can find room to do that within the game contract; I know they have the freedom to cancel games for things like hurricanes, so I’m betting it’s possible. Like I said, you use an independent tester to avoid HIPAA concerns and then they report any positives to the visiting team. The onus is the on that team to hold out the positives, and you sue them for damages if you later find out they played a positive player. There are likely going to be lots of instances in our society of businesses/governments requiring negative tests for participation in certain activities. It seems like having test results right before you play a team from another area would be a no-brainer.

        And if UL-Monroe refuses, there’s really not a lot of penalty for UGA if the game is cancelled with reduced (or no) capacity in the stadium and the loss of that game having zero impact on CFP selection.

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      • Morris Day

        Force? No but, why wouldn’t they accept assistance to keep their players safe?

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        • Ya gotta’ throw the ncaa in there plus the individual conferences and maybe as far as the major conferences with protection of the students/student athletes/possibly supporting casts during sporting events either on campus or other wise…since this is sorta’ the exception and not the rule…if you want to play…you gotta’ pay..

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      • Question: where are we (the country / the world) on rapid response time for testing results ?

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  4. Sam Johnson

    Best quote is from UGA’s Dr. Glenn:

    I can’t believe there hasn’t been more of a push in the public, and among football fans, to wear masks, and to continue social distancing,” Glenn said. “Because if the community has widespread COVID, that’s going to crash the system. You can’t keep a bubble intact when there’s just huge amounts of COVID cases around your bubble. So for me, one of the things I’ve been saying to myself for months: When I go to the grocery store, I’m putting on a mask because I want the best chance possible for there to be football in the fall.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Jack Klompus

      Man, you are so right… Everyone on that reads this blog can do one small thing to help get CFB back (and keep at-risk people alive).

      Wear a mask

      Wear a mask

      Wear a mask

      Just wear a f*cking mask.

      Liked by 2 people

    • spur21

      I was going to post that exact quote and hope the “I’m not wearing a mask crowd” actually reads it and understands the message. Sadly I doubt it will reach a certain segment of the population / fan base. Their selfish refusal will harm everyone.

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      • Jack Klompus

        Pretty sad, huh?

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      • I don’t think it’s a certain segment. Its wide wide open here for sure. My significant other went on a trip through the South and said it was wide open pretty much everywhere.

        What I’m saying is, it appears as though the segment of the population is 75% of the population if not more

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      • PTC DAWG

        I think the Tyvek suit is much better protection….for healthy people for sure.

        The cheap ass mask are too easy for slobs to leave in the buggies or on the ground in the grocery stores parking lot.

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  5. PTC DAWG

    The kids are going to get Covid..I’m pretty much convinced we are all going to get it….

    Liked by 1 person

  6. not a smart man

    Would it be insane for a team to have a COVID19 party, kind of like a “measles party”, so the whole team will get it and be over it for the season. Of course, only players without pre-existing conditions would be invited. I say this mostly tongue in cheek, but with LSU and Clemson having such large numbers that have tested positive it seems unlikely that 75% of the team doesn’t test positive at some point during the season.

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    • PTC DAWG

      I think they are ahead of the game in this respect.

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    • Paul

      Well we’re just beginning to study immunity to COVID but so far it appears any acquired immunity is short lived at best.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Bulldawg Bill

      Hey, Smart Man, give yourself more credit than that. You’ve stumbled on what I think is the main underlying strategy for the season. These guys are gonna wind up exposed to the virus. Most won’t get sick and the ones that do only mildly so. The sooner it happens and the antibodies flourish, the sooner the team has it’s “Herd Immunity.”

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  7. Bob

    Going to be a bit easier for NHL and NBA teams to perform than football, especially college. Fewer players to worry about. Fewer outside activities if they are in the bubble..i.e., Sid Crosby doesn’t have to go to Biology 101. And college footaball has so many more players, even than the NFL. Some real challenges ahead.

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    • Paul

      The NBA will have no traveling. Everyone will stay and play in one place in a highly controlled environment. All players will be constantly monitored by medical personnel. Very different circumstances. Unfortunately, this sort of setup simply isn’t possible for college football.

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  8. willypmd

    From CDC.gov (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html)

    Cumulative hospitalization rates for COVID-19 in adults (18-64 years) at this time are higher than cumulative end-of-season hospitalization rates for influenza over each of the past 5 influenza seasons.
    For people 65 years and older, current cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rates are within ranges of cumulative influenza hospitalization rates observed at comparable time points* during recent influenza seasons.
    For children (0-17 years), cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than cumulative influenza hospitalization rates at comparable time points* during recent influenza seasons.

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  9. Dylan Dreyer's Booty

    Two problems mentioned: 1) lack of resources for enough testing, and 2) lack of central authority like the NFL. Gee, if only there was an organization with a goal to protect student-athletes that has enormous financial resources. But where is there such a responsible, altruistic organization?

    Liked by 2 people

  10. SOWEGA Dawg

    There will be no season

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  11. FlyingPeakDawg

    Just wrap cellophane around their helmets with an air tube in the mouth guards. Then spray disinfectant on them during the huddle.

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  12. Bill Glennon

    “He’s less cynical than I am about the financial motivation to play”

    I think you could safely say that about everyone. 🙂

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  13. ASEF

    Can you have games in an area where hospitals are at max capacity? Phoenix and Houston are both sounding alarms on that front. Not there yet, but close, with rising numbers.

    Stuff like that is going to seriously impact go/no go decisions.

    In other words, as Glenn notes, so much of this is beyond the control of the actual participants.

    I‘d love to see football, but I am having serious doubts. It was clear from the beginning that countries where mask wearing in crowded public spaces is just SOP were having real success against this thing.

    So, as Jack notes above, PLEASE:

    Buy some masks. Watch a 5 minute YouTube on how to wear them effectively. And then….

    Wear them.

    Liked by 1 person

      • Jack Klompus

        So funny. Is it the science behind wearing a mask that has you so much against it?

        If you have surgery done are you going to tell the doctor and nurses not to worry about wearing masks since you seem to think they have no benefit?

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        • PTC DAWG

          You equate a Dr in a sterile environment who is trained in wearing a mask to someone walking around the Kroger with a nasty mask they have been taking on and off all day….that’s rich.

          I’m ASSuming Jack was replying to my Tyvek suit comment…why not? Go all out…stay protected…. 🙂

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          • PTC DAWG

            The comments weren’t lined up when I posted this reply, it’s obvious he was referring to me..I’m hoping y’all order some of the suits. The Senator should require them for posting here. 🙂

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            • spur21

              I guess I should have thrown measured caution out the window and flown through that steady stream of tracers all the while thinking they won’t hit me I’m good.

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            • ASEF

              “I saw someone in Kroger wearing a dirty mask, so no one should.”

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              • PTC DAWG

                IF you feel like you need to wear a mask…do it…no issues from me. I do hope you pick up the nasty ones that are being left in the carts and on the ground…just be safe you know.

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        • When I worked in healthcare I had to be fitted in train to wear an N95 mask. And then I had to teach my staff how to properly use them and enforce policy. What I’m seeing is not anywhere close to that standard. Just today shopping half of the people I saw a mask that even have their nose covered. And they’re not comfortable so people are touching their faces all the time which is way way worse.

          Hand washing is for real though that should be number one priority.

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          • ASEF

            We did a family training session. It’s awkward at first, but you get the hang of it pretty quickly. Hardest part as getting the kids to avoid reuse situations.

            Hand washing is great, but it doesn’t do anything for transmission via breathing. We need something on that end for grocery stores and things like that.

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            • That’s great that you did that, for real. as I stated I was an infection control officer and worked health care for 4 years, there’s fundamentally nothing more important than hand washing 1st and foremost . Touching dirt hands to a masks, which I see all the time, is very not good. I used to teach employs to pretend like they had Tabasco on their hands. So if they went into a controlled patient Room pretend like you got Tabasco on your hands.

              But yes master there to stop airborne. I have no faith or confidence that wearing a cloth mask does much. It may help some.

              Out shopping in doing a bunch of honey do’s today.. nobody’s wear masks. I believe it may be a lost cause, but wearing masks and doing it completely wrong, and having dirty hands everywhere doesn’t really help either.

              I’m 100% certain if I am to kitsch Corona it’s gonna come from my girlfriend’s kid. Because you just can’t stop the kids from being kids. Our first rule is “walk through the door, wash hands” but I cant control what the zillion other parental units do or dont do, and it looks like nothing at all. During the “peak” it was wide open all over. Now, the horse has done left the barn and ran down the road. This being a tourist area…its like nothing Corona ever happened. I just try to take care of my bubble.

              I wish all family units could be as responsible as you have been.

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              • ASEF

                You should do a Youtube explainer 🙂

                Yeah, the hardest part with the kids (teenagers) is how all their friends are treating it and what they see through their phones. We cane off as paranoid to them for a few weeks there.

                But they’re much more on board lately. Not sure why.

                Liked by 1 person

  14. jarviscrowell

    Yesterday there were 267 covid deaths nationwide, that was the lowest number since march 23. The theory that the virus has weakened has legs to it.
    Im less worried about the safety of play than i am about admins over reactions to asymptomatic positive tests

    Liked by 1 person

    • willypmd

      I’m not sure whether the virus has changed Or it has already killed a lot of the people that were at high risk.l and is now infecting lower risk groups.

      Most public health people refer to QALY (quality adjusted life years: Roughly meaning years of life that are functional and enjoyable). A large percentage of these patients that died were old, had many comorbid conditions, and were in nursing homes.

      The ratio of deaths:QALY lost seems to be a lot higher than most illnesses, meaning most of the deaths were in people that had no quality life years left. I’m waiting for a publication on this topic with comparisons to other similar illnesses.

      As I posted above, this pandemic is thankfully looking more and more like a different and marginally more dangerous version of the flu.

      The biggest difference is media coverage. We could easily apply all of this reasoning and precautions to the flu for the last 100 years of college football

      Liked by 3 people

  15. HirsuteDawg

    I guess we old dawgs just need to go on and die out – leave our money to the younger (covid resistant/survivor) generation – and our seats at the stadium too. Make it easier for them to get a good tailgate spot and not have to worry about pushing past us to get into their seats. Added benefit will be less demand for tickets = lower ticket prices. Damn, they win all the way around.

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  16. PTC DAWG

    Will this graph C&P?

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    • Paul

      Your chart is misleading. The 5 denotes 50, the 10 denotes 100 and so on. Georgia had 271 deaths on June 14. We had 192 on June 21. Are we down from our highs? Sure. But our new cases are up and our hospitalizations are starting to trend up as well. As you know, hospitalizations have nothing to do with increased testing. It’s still wise to be careful.

      Liked by 1 person

      • PTC DAWG

        The state has had just over 2600 deaths..looks like if you went 10 fold on that chart, it would be well over 2600….or sure looks like it to me.

        Agree, those at risk should remain vigilant…

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  17. I wouldn’t be opposed to wealthy P5 programs subsidizing complete testing programs for their cupcake opponents. This would go a long way in protecting all of FBS.
    The small groups mentioned in Seth’s article. I hope when they encourage / facilitate smaller isolation samples within the team, that they disperse the members amongst the position groups so that an infection within such a cluster doesn’t knock out one whole position. For instance, quarterbacks should try and keep socially distanced as best as possible from other quarterbacks–keep them in separate lifting groups. If some are living together, maybe try and make other arrangements. I know they often lean on each other, but they should probably try and do that socially distanced.
    Make the analogy like STDs. Every outsider you see, every person you see at a house party—that we encourage you to avoid—is a person you’re exposing to every other player and personnel member inside the program.
    Not every mask is created equal. The blue surgical masks are not very good. In my amateur research, it seems the ones using the product linked below (i have no affiliation), but with head straps for a snugger fit, is the best. This material was tested by the company that tests N95s and it’s pretty strong on keeping the 0.3 microns out, which is the key indicator. You can find sellers using this Filti material on etsy https://filti.com/

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  18. TN Dawg

    ““Can it (a football season) be done with no risk? No. There is always going to be a risk as long as COVID-19 is circulating, and of course, that risk increases with contact sports,”

    This is realistic.

    If the standard is a two week quarantine for players and those that have been in contact with them, and legal action against the NCAA and the schools for endangering players, there is no football.

    So how shall we proceed?

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    • Paul

      How would you justify NOT quarantining players and those they had been in contact with?

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      • TN Dawg

        I suppose by acknowledging that the risk of infection, as with any other virus or disease that also kill (such as influenza),is baked into the cake if you want to do anything in life.

        As noted upthread by a doctor/Facebook epidemiologist, these same standards could have been applied over the last 100 years.

        We could have quarantined players over any disease, as all of them carry with them the possibility of death.

        For that matter, participation in the sport Itself carries with it the possibility of paralysis, permanent injury, permanent brain damage and death.

        How do we justify letting them play when such outcomes are possible?

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        • Paul

          The ‘like influenza’ argument has been total BS since day one. We have influenza vaccines, we have influenza medications and we have lifetimes worth of influenza exposure to most everyone on the planet. We have none of that for COVID. and while the death rates for COVID are nowhere near what they appeared to be back in April, they’re still MUCH higher than the flu. In fact, if you compare the last 7 years of flu deaths to the current rate of COVID deaths, COVID is 20 times more deadly. Even if that comes down significantly over time it’s clear COVID is much deadlier than the flu. I realize these are scientific facts and scientific facts aren’t particularly popular these days but doesn’t make them any less true.

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          • TN Dawg

            So what is the threshold of mortality rate at which the NCAA should halt football, quarantine players and test daily for infection for various diseases?

            What is the cutoff on deaths going forward?

            If influenza kills 80,000 in a year, is that too many?

            Just how many deaths is the magic number?

            I’m fine with caution, but please, pick the number of acceptable deaths, the statistical modeling that will be used each year, the acceptable mortality rate, and the source of recording we will use.

            Seriously, I’m interested.

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          • willypmd

            Didn’t you just make a straight forward argument as to why this is like influenza?

            The world will develop herd immunity over the next several years, vaccines and treatments are in development and we will likely lose 10,000’s of our sickest and oldest humans per year. We are lucky this strain wasn’t as virulent as it could be.

            And if you believe you are the only one interested in scientific facts, you are the one in a bubble. We are all working on limited knowledge and everyone interprets the facts through a prism.

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    • … and legal action against the NCAA and the schools for endangering players, there is no football.

      LOL.

      Like

  19. Cojones

    Coroners in some states have been told (over a month ago) to report Covid-19 deaths as heart or pneumonia. You can figure where by looking at WHO’s stat upticks for those mortality rates. You will find an uptick in mortality rates for all.diseases in all states that are used to cover up the true death rate due to this virus.

    This obfuscation of the facts has been going on as reported in the media for some time, but if you ignored it then, you will probably ignore this reply as well. WHO has been processing the mortality rates for all diseases all over the world each.week for years. It was required reading in my industry and circulated to all management back in the 60s. Knowledge be your best friend, Dawgs.

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    • willypmd

      The counter argument is that prior to new guidance pneumonia and MI deaths were being chalked up to COVID deaths.

      I’m not saying this is true, just that it is an easy argument to make in absence of better data

      Liked by 1 person

  20. BuffaloSpringfield

    For What it’s Worth:
    No remorse intended but last two weeks the COVID 19 took a back seat to Floyd and Brooks, riots, looting and tearing down statues. Not much of a mention of virus during the hells bells of cleaning of our dastardly nation.
    Reports are highest in Texas, California and Georgia. I am waiting on the reports from Minneapolis and Baltimore, Washington DC along with Five Points. The media frenzy hasn’t been in such control since “Jaws” debut in 1986. My County has 64,000 people ( without damn tourist ) with the influx there is now 62 confirmed cases of which 2 are County residents. Of the 62, 49 have recovered and there was one death related due to complications from COPD.
    Perhaps no one has heard of Operation Mockingbird. Might I suggest looking this up which under that all media all TV, newspapers, magazines ( including WHO, CDC ) and radio stations are in fact controlled by “6” corporations. Everything you see except our beloved Senator’s blog is scripted. Not that I care about Alabama but it was stated that if the Tide doesn’t play it will cost the state about 2 billion in revenue. Look around Athens a lot of your hangouts will not be there come November if the Dawgs aren’t between the Hedges.
    I am willing to bet that in September no one thought Tua’s hip would be dislocated. Then most reports said he would never play again. Well he may not but he’s going to try.
    Wear a mask. Cover your damn nose with the mask. Wash your hands, use hand sanitizer ( although some reports state that some are toxic.) I don’t recall anyone tailgating or being forced through the gates at Sanford Stadium with a gun to your head.
    Be intelligent Don’t be a lemming.
    After too many drinks don’t hook up with prostitution affiliates.
    Don’t take opioids/smoke crack.
    “ There’s a man with a gun over there, telling me I got to be ware.”
    That is if you choose to have Public Safety Officers and choose to defund the Police and burn down the prescient.
    What do I know, not much more than what you have read or seen on TV ?

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