Had it all the way.

Another bullet dodged.  Another Superman game from Brock Bowers. Easy peasy!

Your game day post, War Tiggers edition

𝐄𝐚𝐭 𝐎𝐟𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐫 | Game 5 Trailer#GoDawgs | @coach_sinclair pic.twitter.com/S09BSDGflh

— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) September 29, 2023

 

Georgia is a 14.5-point favorite today on the Plains.  Bill Connelly, ($$) whose SP+ indicates the spread is dead on, has this to say about the game:

Freeze’s first Auburn team is currently 3-1, and the Tigers’ defense is making solid progress under new coordinator Ron Roberts. But as with last year, Auburn’s passing game remains retrograde. The Tigers can run the ball efficiently, but here’s their average passing line in their past five games against power-conference defenses: 9-of-19 for 72 yards. Gross.

Georgia’s defense, of course, is more than the typical power-conference unit. Auburn’s going to struggle to move the ball without a legion of trick plays. But an injury-plagued Georgia offense has been beset by slow starts and a lack of easy points. The Bulldogs have made only four runs of 20-plus yards (75th nationally), and considering the defenses they’ve faced, Carson Beck’s 12.7 yards per completion is pedestrian. So is the fact that they rank just 51st in red zone touchdown rate (68%). The one time they had to score, though — in the second half against South Carolina after they fell behind 14-3 — they scored three touchdowns in four drives and won by 10.

If Auburn can’t run the ball today, I don’t see a path to victory for them, barring the usual caveat about excessive turnovers.  I wonder if that means we’ll see a heavier dose of Robbie Ashford, who’s a legitimate running threat at the quarterback spot.  (Although Payton Thorne, who’s been the starter, has run a fair amount of time himself; he’s fourth on the team in rushing yardage.)

Defensively, the Tigers are middle of the pack when it comes to yards per play, but their run/pass splits are notable.  They’re 12th in the conference in defensive rushing ypp and second in defensive passing ypp.  (Both are behind Georgia’s defensive rankings.)  To me, that’s an indication we’re going to see a more of the same defensive approach that all of the Dawgs’ opponents have taken so far this season:  an emphasis on loading the box to slow down the run game and leave it up to Carson Beck to move the ball through the air.

Auburn is last in the SEC in offensive plays of 10+ yards.  Georgia is second in that regard.  If you’re Freeze, limiting big plays by Georgia’s offense has to be a key concern, since you can’t count on your offense contributing much that way.  I’m guessing that means Carson Beck is going to see a lot of soft zone coverage behind that loaded box.  Honestly, that doesn’t bother me too much, as he’s shown pretty good patience so far.  Can Bobo exploit that with a dose of play action calls?

One area of concern:  the Tigers are the top team in the conference in red zone defense.  If Georgia can move the ball between the twenties, but get bogged down consistently in the red zone, that’s a way that Auburn can turn the game into a slog and keep themselves in play.

I think we’ll see early on how serious Georgia is about this game when we see who suits up.  I have the feeling there will be quite a few players returning from injury, including Bullard and McConkey (although it sounds like he’ll be limited on his reps today).

I can’t get past how awful Auburn is throwing the ball.  Georgia knows how to stop the run and if they can succeed in doing that today, it’s not going to be pretty for the home team.  I think the Dawgs do succeed and cover.

As always, add your thoughts in the comments.

Your (ND) 9/30 game day post

This week’s slate isn’t as dramatic as last week’s but there are certainly a few choice nuggets out there worth your attention.  Here are the day’s offerings:

On my agenda?  Well…

• Florida at Kentucky.  It’s the first time in 35 years that Kentucky has been favored over Florida.  Has the tide really turned in this series?
• Kansas at Texas.  Yeah, the ‘Horns are a big favorite, but they were the last time Kansas beat them.
• LSU at Ole Miss.  If Ole Miss loses this one, they’re out of the SEC West race before the half way point.  I doubt Junior can tweet his way out of that.
• Notre Dame at Duke.  Who’da thought this would be a meeting of ranked teams?
• South Carolina at Tennessee.  I doubt the ‘Cocks put up 63 this go ’round.
• Alabama at Mississippi State.  Was the second half against Ole Miss a mirage, or has Alabama turned a corner?

What’s on your watch list today?

Set up for a dawgrading

If the Dawgs win comfortably today, you tell me where this is likely headed:

This all leads us back to the No. 1 team in the country being overlooked. Right now, that ranking seems almost grandfathered four games in. Sure, the Dawgs have won 21 games in a row, but they haven’t exactly been challenged.

This week’s showdown at Auburn is interesting because of that Charmin schedule and the Tigers’ ability to … well, do what exactly? Georgia has won six straight in the series and 15 of the last 18. The Dawgs have won 30 straight against unranked opponents, 28 of them by double digits.

If you’re Kirby Smart and company, all you can do is keep on winning.  The rest will take care of itself, regardless of the narrative.

Clocking it

Dennis Dodd blithely asserts that the new clock rules haven’t negatively impacted college football much at all this season.  Former UT offensive coordinator/current USF head coach Alex Golish suggests things are more nuanced than that, at least with regard to one aspect of the game.

“It stands to reason that you’ll have fewer possessions …,” Golesh said. “The saving of timeouts at the end of the game, that is what has become more critical. I think not wasting timeouts is probably the main thing I’ve gotten out of the new clock rule more than anything else.

“The games seem to be about the same length … The bottom line is the value of possessions has gone up because there are fewer of them.”

Time out management is just the most obvious aspect of a reduction in possessions.  I suspect there are a host of other strategic issues that head coaches, at least the savvy ones, are already gaming out.

It’s Saturday. It’s Auburn.

It’s Early Cuyler.

Between this and “Dooley’s Junkyard Dawgs”, we Georgia fans have been blessed with a musical heritage unmatched by any other school, in my humble opinion.

Hos!