Tired: Nick Saban is smiling more! That must mean something!
Wired:
Nick Saban is po’ mouthing! That must mean something!
Daily Archives: September 1, 2023
Weiszer’s bold prediction
Well…
Georgia 70, UT Martin 3
Let’s see, Georgia beat TCU 65-7 in the highest stakes game the last time it played. UT Martin is 1-26 against FBS opponents. Georgia won 66-0 over Troy in Mike Bobo’s last season as Bulldogs offensive coordinator in 2014.
You kind of have to respect the logic there. At least I do. Dawgs cover, and then some.
Filed under Georgia Football
A matter of principle (principal?)
What a noble stand this bunch is taking!
On the eve of a potential expansion vote by ACC presidents, the leaders of UNC-Chapel Hill’s Board of Trustees announced their board’s opposition to adding western schools to the league.
In an email sent late Thursday by the chair and vice chair of the board, chair David L. Boliek Jr., Chair and vice chair John P. Preyer said “a strong majority” of the board is opposed and that the potential additions of Cal, Stanford and SMU do not solve the league’s economic issues.
“The strong majority of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill’s Board of Trustees opposes the proposed expansion of the Atlantic Coast Conference to include Stanford University, the University of California, Berkeley, and Southern Methodist University,” the email said.
“Although we respect the academic excellence and the athletic programs of those institutions, the travel distances for routine in-conference competitive play are too great for this arrangement to make sense for our student athletes, coaches, alumni and fans. Furthermore, the economics of this newly imagined transcontinental conference do not sufficiently address the income disparity ACC members face. Without ironclad assurances that the proposed expansion serves the interest of UNC-Chapel Hill, we believe it should be voted down.” [Emphasis added.]
So… how much money would it take to do it for the kids swing your vote?
Filed under ACC Football, Blowing Smoke
Not your regular SEC preseason predictions, 2023 edition
Welp, we’ve made it to another Week 1 of college football, which means it’s time for me to take my annual stab at where I think the conference is headed (on the field, that is). And that means it’s time for this evergreen warning about what is to follow:
The format for my picks, in case you haven’t tuned into this broadcast before, hasn’t changed.
Rather than give you my predicted records, I’ll list the schools in the order they finished in the conference last year, look at areas of potential improvement and decline and assess in what direction I expect each to go by comparison to (2021).
In other words, pure seat of the pants BS.
Based on that, the teams are listed in the order of [last season’s] conference order of finish. Remember that, before you start freaking out over where a school shows up in this post.
What’s the over/under on the number of readers who blow right past that? Ah, well, let’s get on with it.
SEC WEST
LSU (10-4, 6-2)
- Pros: Quarterbacks; coaching staff; experience; defense
- Cons: Schedule; special teams
- Outlook: Brian Kelly can coach, okay? Last year’s team really had no business winning the West, but did just enough to get to Atlanta. He’s done a good job of rebuilding the roster and managing the talent he has on hand. (This being LSU, that’s a fair amount.) That said, I don’t see this team dramatically improving this season. They aren’t going to sneak up on anybody. And they have to travel to Tuscaloosa, which, in the end, will likely be the difference in the West. It feels like nine or ten regular season wins, but not the one that counts the most.
ALABAMA (11-2, 6-2)
- Pros: Along with Georgia, conference’s best depth; Nick Saban and The Process; defense; running backs; schedule
- Cons: Quarterback; breaking in new offensive and defensive coordinators; penalties
- Outlook: About ‘Bama, Bill Connelly wrote “Anytime we talk about concern at Alabama, it’s concern that the Tide are merely one of the four or five best teams in the country instead of the clear No. 1.” That’s a pretty good summary of where this team is at now: great, but not invincible. It’s worth remembering that the two losses last season were both on the road and close. It’s also worth remembering that last year’s talent wasn’t evenly spread across the roster and that untypical sloppiness for a Saban-coached team was a big factor. I’ve already said this today — ‘Bama is the conference’s biggest mystery. If Saban tightens things up, combined with the schedule, there’s more than enough talent to take back the West and possibly go undefeated in the regular season. But it’s going to take more from the quarterback position than we’ve seen to date for the Tide to roll. It’s plausible to think they’re looking at another disappointing season, too. I’ll say one regular season loss for now, although two losses wouldn’t be a shock to the system if none of the quarterbacks come around.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (9-4, 4-4)
- Pros: Quarterback; offensive line; linebackers; team experience
- Cons: Coaching change; major change in offensive scheme; secondary; special teams
- Outlook: You would think they have something to play for in honoring Mike Leach, but that likely will only go so far. The coaching staff is brand new and is ditching Leach’s scheme (which, as many overlook, was built on controlling clock). They do get ‘Bama and LSU at home, which doesn’t hurt. Kentucky and South Carolina are the crossover opponents, which could be worse. The non-conference schedule isn’t daunting, either. Still, it feels like they’re due to take a step back this season. I’m gonna say six wins in the regular season.
OLE MISS (8-5, 4-4)
- Pros: Running back; offensive line; overall depth
- Cons: Secondary; special teams; new coordinators; schedule
- Outlook: We’ll know all we need to know about Junior’s team by the end of the first month of the season, as they close September with games against Alabama and LSU. I doubt either will go well. They face a third top five team in November when they come to Athens. Kiffin’s done a decent job chasing talent from the transfer portal, but I can’t help but wonder about his overall focus running the program. I’ll go with eight wins, reluctantly.
ARKANSAS (7-6, 3-5)
- Pros: More depth in the defensive front; quarterback; running backs
- Cons: New coordinators; treading water in the transfer portal; overall team defense; receivers
- Outlook: Over the last two seasons, I’ve had no feel in the preseason for how Arkansas will fare, underestimating them one year and overestimating them the next, so take what I say with a grain of salt. If Mississippi State is looking at the most dramatic change in offensive scheme in the division, Arky isn’t far behind, going from the Briles power spread to a more pro-style attack with Enos. It feels like this team is going to struggle to reach bowl eligibility. I’ll say they just miss.
TEXAS A&M (5-7, 2-6)
- Pros: Receivers; secondary; defensive line; experience
- Cons: Offensive line; running back; quarterback; Bobby Petrino (?)
- Outlook: As I typed this, I realized I had forgotten this team finished last in the division in 2022. That can’t happen again, can it? The Petrino-Fisher dynamic is going to be fascinating to watch, no doubt, but I can’t help but wonder if Jimbo’s ego is ready for it, shitty ’22 season or not. I may regret making this call, but I’m going to pencil the Aggies in for an eight-win regular season. There’s just too much talent on this team to ignore.
AUBURN (5-7, 2-6)
- Pros: Addition by subtraction at head coach; secondary; running back
- Cons: Receivers; quarterback; defensive back seven
- Outlook: While there’s no question Freeze is an upgrade over Harsin, I think the “don’t sleep on Auburn this season!” takes are a little optimistic. Has everyone forgotten how Liberty’s ’22 season ended? (HINT: It wasn’t pretty.) The roster is middle of the pack by SEC standards, which is why Freeze hit the transfer portal running as soon as he took the job. The Tigers play four ranked conference opponents in a row mid-season and, of course, finish by hosting Alabama. Their other crossover game is against Vandy and their non-conference schedule is pillow soft. They’ll manage bowl eligibility, but not much more.
SEC EAST
GEORGIA (15-0, 8-0)
- Pros: Conference-best roster depth; tight ends; offensive line; schedule; defensive back seven; coaching staff
- Cons: Monken departure; unproven quarterback; running back depth
- Outlook: They didn’t lose a regular season game last year and this year’s schedule is much more favorable. I like ’em to run the table.
TENNESSEE (11-2, 6-2)
- Pros: Joe Milton’s arm; offensive scheme; running backs; defensive line
- Cons: Joe Milton’s head; defensive back seven
- Outlook: The standard take on Milton is that the Vols won’t miss a beat with him stepping in for Hooker. Count me as a bit of a skeptic on that — don’t forget that Milton has managed to lose two starting jobs, including at Tennessee last season. If Heupel is such a great quarterback whisperer, how come it didn’t take the first time? The Vols are another bunch that aren’t going to sneak up on anyone this year, especially Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Three losses.
SOUTH CAROLINA (8-5, 4-4)
- Pros: Running back; quarterback; special teams
- Cons: Both lines of scrimmage; new offensive coordinator; overall depth
- Outlook: I have to give Shane Beamer credit: eight wins, including two over top ten opponents, with that roster was a helluva job last season. Now he has to do it again, with five top 25 teams on the schedule, including the aforementioned two that will be looking for some measure of revenge. I can’t say I’ll count the ‘Cocks out entirely. They’ve got too much of a puncher’s chance with Rattler for that. But the SEC is a line of scrimmage conference and South Carolina falls short in that department. Let’s say seven wins in the regular season, because I think they’ll upset somebody. Again.
KENTUCKY (7-5; 3-6)
- Pros: Quarterback; change at offensive coordinator; Stoops’ game management skills
- Cons: Both lines of scrimmage;
- Outlook: I find myself bullish on the ‘Cats’ chances this year. They brought back Liam Coen as offensive coordinator, which should lead to improvement on that side of the ball. I also think Leary is an improvement over Levis at quarterback. The schedule isn’t that bad — the toughest non-conference foe is in state rival Louisville, they only face three ranked opponents, but two of those are among the top four in the country. They’ll be a tough out again, because that’s how Stoops rolls. I like them to win nine.
MISSOURI (6-7, 3-5)
- Pros: Defense; recruiting
- Cons: Running back; receivers
- Outlook: The schedule is somewhat front loaded, in that Mizzou starts out playing four straight non-conference games — but one of those is against preseason #16 Kansas State. The remaining eight are all SEC games, with three of those against ranked teams. (The Tigers are in the East, so that helps some.) Drinkwitz never seems to have all cylinders clicking with this team. One year, the offense is better than the defense, and the next is the opposite. They’re just so damned mediocre. How many wins is a mediocre SEC team good for? I figure six is about right.
FLORIDA (6-7, 3-5)
- Pros: Running backs
- Cons: Quarterback; defensive back seven; schedule
- Outlook: Hoo, boy, what a mess Billy Napier has on his hands! Brutal schedule, major roster turnover and a not-so-great situation at quarterback. I don’t think he’s on a hot seat. Yet. The Utah and Tennessee games are huge for the Gators’ chances. Split those, and a seven-win season becomes possible. Lose them both, and they’ll be lucky to win five. Guess I’ll compromise and pick six.
VANDERBILT (5-7, 2-6)
- Pros: Receivers; some measure of confidence from last season’s success (as the ‘Dores measure success, anyway)
- Cons: Offensive line; secondary; overall lowest talent level in the conference
- Outlook: Just like last year, Vanderbilt finishes with eight straight conference games. They could go 3-1 to start the season, but winning three games down the stretch seems like a tall order. Then again, they did win two of those in ’22. I’ll split the baby and say four wins.
That’s all I got for now. Take your best shot in the comments.
Filed under SEC Football
“What they’re doing in Athens, Georgia, right now is on a whole ’nother level.”
The last team to be flattened by the Georgia juggernaut was TCU. The 65–7 score was the most lopsided not only in the nine-year history of the College Football Playoff, but also in the lengthier annals of major postseason college football games. Now that the bruises from that bludgeoning have sufficiently healed, Horned Frogs coach Sonny Dykes can offer a frank appraisal of what it was like to play the Bulldogs.
“Comparing them to other people we played last year, there was a difference,” Dykes says.
“Typically you look at teams and you go, ‘Well, they’re really good here but not as good there.’ Them, across the board, they were good. So much of football, and sports in general, is creating a favorable matchup. You look at Georgia and you go, ‘Where are the matchups?’”
Ummm… we could tell that at the time, Sonny.
Filed under Georgia Football
24-11, bitchez
Utah didn’t have its starting quarterback, Cam Rising, and rotated two throughout the game. Utah was the team that didn’t have its standout tight end Brant Kuithe, nor did it have multiple other starters. But Florida was the team who looked disjointed, unprepared and just plain bad in a 24–11 loss to the Utes. In their first out-of-conference game outside of Florida since 1991, the Gators looked like they simply were not ready to play from the very first snap. Bryson Barnes’s 70-yard bomb to Money Parks on Utah’s first offensive play of the game stunned Florida.
Money was money, alright.
Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said at halftime that he thought his team had started the last few seasons with a conservative play on offense to start the year, so they dialed up the long ball to great success instead. And that was emblematic of the tenor of the game. Utah looked like it had a plan and was able to execute it despite all their uncertainty coming into the game; Florida looked lost and lost the game because of it. That is the mark of a culture that is as ingrained as Whittingham’s is in his 19th season. Billy Napier, starting his second, still has quite a ways to go.
Another damned gap.
And when you’ve lost Matt Hayes…
And if you can’t run the ball because you’re getting beat up front — Napier said all offseason that the offensive line was the strength of the team — it’s nearly impossible to string together successful plays, much less a series.
The Gators had 21 carries for 13 yards — and Mertz threw 44 passes. Florida will not win a game this season when Mertz throws double the run game carries. Not 1.
Florida didn’t win 1 game in 2022 when it threw the ball more than it ran it.
Meet the new boss, everyone. Same as the old boss.
Deal with it, and hope it gets better.
Or round up those millions.
I have the feeling it’s gonna be a fun year for some of us.
Filed under Gators, Gators...
Remnants of the Alliance
LOL. Why am I not surprised by this?
Translation: if Mickey is willing to pay us what we want, why chase others?
Warren’s gone. Kliavkoff’s about to be. So much for their brave stand.
Filed under BCS/Playoffs
Another ‘Bama hater… er, doubter
Ari Wasserman ($$) looks at 247Sports Talent Composite and writes,
It should come as no surprise to anyone who follows college football recruiting that Alabama ranks No. 1 in total talent this year. Nick Saban has been a recruiting machine for more than a decade. Yet, somehow Alabama comes into this season as a pesky underdog. None of The Athletic’s national writers picked Alabama to make the College Football Playoff even though the Crimson Tide simply have better players than anyone else in the country. How is that possible? It’s because there are far too many questions about Alabama’s offense. Given what we know about the quarterback situation and the lack of proven big-time wide receivers, the only way you could pick Alabama to win the national title is by blind faith. You have to just assume Saban will figure it out with this many good players on his roster.
I’m not willing to do that. Alabama was loaded with talent a year ago and had Bryce Young — one of the best players in the sport — and still failed to make the College Football Playoff.
It’s a helluva thing, ain’t it? Probably the best argument to make against the Tide’s chances is exactly what he says in that last paragraph. If Saban couldn’t win enough with Bryce Young, how’s he gonna do it with this season’s bunch? And yet… having the most talented roster in the country, by a decently wide margin, is nothing to sneeze at.
I never, ever thought I’d say this, but Alabama looks like the SEC’s biggest mystery team to me this year.
Filed under Alabama
Who says things aren’t different?
I mean, look at this:
It has been eight years since oddsmakers anointed a team other than Alabama or Clemson as the preseason favorite. That streak is over, as Georgia is firmly the consensus betting favorite to win the College Football Playoff at sportsbooks around the nation.
… Alabama had been the preseason favorite or co-favorite with Clemson in seven of the past eight seasons.
Playoff expansion? We don’t need no stinkin’ playoff expansion!
Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas
Facilitating, or, your Hartman dollars at work
Take a virtual stroll through the new $80 million football facility:
And here’s a last look at the remodeled South stands at Sanford:
Keep in mind that the changes on the Bridge affect both the South and North stands.
Filed under Georgia Football
Get The Picture 