Hard road

Just another data point…

And, yes, I know, in and of itself, that’s not a complete indication of schedule strength, but here’s Sagarin’s SOS rankings on that:

  • Georgia 6
  • Clemson 48
  • Alabama 44
  • Oklahoma 31
  • Notre Dame 42
  • Ohio State 40
  • UCF 90

One of those numbers really isn’t like the others.  (Well, okay, two, but I digress.)

The point here, again, isn’t to re-litigate whether Georgia belongs in the CFP field this year — that ship’s already done sailed.  Rather, it’s to say that the debate about whether the Dawgs, two losses and all, deserved to be part of the discussion was certainly a valid one.



Filed under BCS/Playoffs, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

40 responses to “Hard road

  1. Everyone talked about ND’s murderer’s row schedule … it sucked.

    Ours was #6 with an FCS opponent thrown in there.


    • ND was, is and will always be (as far as I can tell) a media creation. But they have a chance to prove out and turn 2019 on its head this upcoming Sept. 21. My bet is on the Dawgs.


    • Macallanlover

      I am as critical of the ND and Clem’s Son schedules providing an easy path as anyone but they could not help the awful collapse of FSU, Stanford, and USC when those games were scheduled. I thought their schedule would test them when you add Michigan and Navy to the above. They should be forced to play in the ACC championship to get a spot when they have a solid season, or just get left out. There is 50% of the playoff benefiting from a weak ACC and they didn’t have to play their way in.


  2. Hogbody Spradlin

    Not your topic, but I see how Okie got in ahead of Corch.


  3. 81Dog

    Even tough I am convinced we are no worse than, and perhaps better than, the 3rd best team in the country, I can’t complain too much about being out of the playoff. We had our chance for the knockout, we just couldn’t close it out. But we’re really, REALLY, close. We all knew in August our only path in was to win the SEC, even more so after the LSU game. Listening to the pundits try to downgrade us to justify keeping us out us annoying, but that’s what happens when you don’t win.


  4. ASEF

    That’s CFB. If Kyler goes straight to baseball, Georgia’s in the playoffs. Part of the frustration of the sport but also part of the appeal.

    Unrelated except for the frustration part: LSU is going to lose to UCF, aren’t they? What will UCF do with that transitive set of Ws this year?

    Liked by 2 people

    • Tony Barnfart

      I hope like hell they don’t.


    • Russ

      I’m certain LSU will lose. They won’t be motivated and they don’t have the offense to outscore UCF. The UCF blather will be nauseating.

      Liked by 2 people

      • I give LSU a 40% shot at winning that game. I’d rather stick UCF in the playoffs than give them another shot at an SEC also-ran. Bama would squash them like an armadillo on I-20.

        Liked by 1 person

        • I wish we could have played them that would be a beat down by the Dawgs comparable to the Mizzou win this year IMO.


        • Uglydawg.

          Yep. Once again this will be UCF’s National Championship game, but for LSU it will be practice for 19.
          Somebody needs to shut- UCF-TFU.
          That would be one reason (and the only one) to wish they were in the playoffs against a motivated playoff team. That would be that. Bad precedent letting them in? no worse than leaving a top 3 team out for TV’s sake.
          Maybe, I hope, we’re selling Coach E.O. and the Tigers short.


    • They’ll build a National Labia (Title) statue in front of corporation field and organize a parade probably.


    • PTC DAWG

      UCF is a good story…they don’t bother me. Someone needs to beat them…the 2nd SEC team is going to get a shot. Hell, they beat us a few years back too…


      • DawgPhan

        I mean they beat Auburn last year and have a chance to beat LSU this year.

        S&P+ has UCF about as good as UGA was last year.

        Actually just checked and this year’s UCF team is rated better than UGA was last year. UCF this year would have been in the game with every team in the playoffs last year according to S&P+.

        CFB fans are a strange lot. It’s like everyone wants to talk about wanting the cinderella, but when cinderella shows up they are no longer interested.


  5. Russ

    It’s just fodder for expanding to 8. Just like UGA and OU opened Pandora’s TV box 35 years ago, it looks like we two will be one of the pushes toward playoff expansion, further changing the game.

    Not that they need the help on expansion.


  6. FarmerDawg

    but, but, but; Their non conference schedule screamed the talking heads, while gushing the merits of Notre Dame and inter-sectional match ups. The selection committee is affirmative action for college football.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Uglydawg.

    I was finally just calming down and now this.
    I don’t blame ND’s players or coaches. They are no different than any other team that would believe they are deserving and would jump on a bid.
    The Notre Dame privilege and favor needs to go away.
    ND is the bottom line of why the playoff slots couldn’t be honestly distributed this year.
    I hope Clemson doesn’t lay off of them for niceties.
    Do your job, Coach Dabo.
    And I hope Georgia will embarrass them in ’19 and be the reason they lose any consideration for the ’19 playoff.


  8. Seattle Dawg

    The committee has spoken: Stop voluntarily scheduling tough games.

    I don’t recall hearing a single pundit mentioning uga’s strength of schedule, only it’s number of loses.

    We’ve voluntarily scheduled two teams in this year’s playoff and another in a new year’s day bowl.

    If the goal is to win a national championship, can someone explain how this increases our odds?


    • The Truth

      I don’t recall hearing a single pundit mentioning uga’s strength of schedule, only it’s number of loses.

      The ever-brilliant and insightful Heather Dinich was actually on the WWL using UGA’s strength of schedule against us, perhaps as the deciding factor. Sure our three cupcake games didn’t do us any favors, but we played nine other games as tough as any nine anyone else did.

      That’s OK, Heather, stats be hard.


  9. Uglydawg.

    LSU take note!
    You soundly beat UGA in the season.
    You are now facing an undefeated UCF team.
    They see this as a National Championship Game.
    They will have people lined up to crown them National Champs if they beat you.
    Beat them and you can demand that the UCF crowd, and even the UCF school president name you National Champions.
    “The UCF Presidential College Football National Champions, 2018” trophy, which they’ve probably already had made with their names engraved on it, will be yours.
    What a treasure!
    Bring that mother home, Bengal Tigers!


  10. HamDawg11

    Avg point margin (includes losses factored in) UGA +20.6 OU +16.3
    Total Offense UGA 479 OU 578
    Scoring Off UGA 39.2 OU 49.5
    Total Defense UGA 311 OU 448
    Scoring Def UGA 18.5 OU 32.4
    SOS UGA 6 OU 31
    Ranked opp UGA 6 OU 3
    There are quite a few more numbers that favor UGA getting in over OU, but apparently the 2 losses were too much for the committee to overlook.


  11. Flying Peak Dawg (formerly AusDawg85)

    By most any reasonable measure, I think OU deserves to be in. The first loss to Texas was by 3 points in a neutral site, and then they avenged that loss. The real question should be (but never will) why ND gets the free game pass. The lack of playing a conference championship game should be stipulated up front as the equivalent of 1 loss. Does a 1 loss ND get in over 2 loss UGA, or even OSU? I think that’s a closer argument. Should have applied to Bama in the past too. Might not have changed any of the outcomes, other than maybe ND drops to 4th this year which sounds right, but it would also make the Holy Domers think more about hiding behind their “independence” and also force the committee to further rationalize their choices.

    But the easy way out is to alway…ALWAYS!….keep a zero or one loss ND in and avoid tough decisions by going to 8 teams in the playoffs. I give the current format one more year when Bama, UGA, Clemson, ND, and any of the O’s are at the top again with the Pac12 sitting out. The system will be deemed broken and a new “fix” required.


  12. I’m happy we got left out. I don’t need yet another thrilling loss against Bama this year, please and thank you. I hope OU and ND meet in the final. They don’t recruit our boys like Satan and Dumbo.


    • Brandon M

      That was the only silver lining to blowing that game last Saturday. We pull it out, hooray! we’re SEC Champs! (which I’m not downgrading at all), but then Bama still gets in and in all likelihood beats us in heartbreaking fashion in round 2 to win another national title. It’s hard enough to beat the Death Star once, nobody does it twice. Granted if we pulled that off it would have been LE-GEN… wait for it….. DARY


  13. Tony Barnfart

    Senator, there’s a law professor at Miami claiming Group of 5 players (certainly) if not the G5 schools themselves have a solid anti-trust case against some combo of the CFP and P5 schools and conferences. What do you think ?