Been there, done that.

Damn, these painful championship losses to Alabama are getting old.

On the bright side, it gives CBS even more material to work into next year’s SECCG broadcast.

‘Yer SECCG game day post

Okay, I’m not going to blow smoke up your ass, either.  Alabama’s offense is good enough to be the difference maker today, and probably will be.

That being said, I stand by my earlier post that the Dawgs have more than a puncher’s chance.  The path to winning is, admittedly, a little narrow.  (Usual caveat about a turnover barrage applies, natch.)  On offense, Georgia has to be able to run the ball, for two reasons:  one, it’s how Chaney best sets up the passing game and, two, the more time Georgia can chew clock on offense, the less time there will be for Tua to have his hands on the ball.

On defense — and this has to be one of the weirdest things I’ve ever written on the blog — I think Smart and Tucker have to let ‘Bama beat them with the running game.  I know, I know, but, again, running the ball eats clock and that allows Georgia to shorten the game.  Also, Alabama is first in the conference in pass plays of 20+ yards.  It’s seventh in run plays of 20+ yards.  When you play bend but don’t break defense, go where the math leads you.

The thing is, I don’t know for sure if the Dawgs can do either, although I feel better about the former than the latter.  My concern is that if Alabama is successful through the air and blazes out to an early lead, that’s going to put pressure on Chaney and the offense to match that, and I don’t see how Georgia wins by throwing a lot.

If you break down the oddsmakers and pundits on the spread, essentially Georgia has about a one in three chance of winning today.  In line with that, I see three scenarios.  The first is that Alabama’s offense steamrolls Georgia’s defense and the Tide cruises its way to a comfortable win.  The second is a back and forth struggle with ‘Bama prevailing in in the end, kind of like last year.  The third, of course, sees Georgia pull out the close win.

My head and heart have argued plenty about games this season, but on this one, they’re both in agreement.  Dawgs cover, but ultimately fall a little short.

I won’t complain if I picked the wrong team to win, though.  GATA, Dawgs.

Have at it in the comments.  Try to control your early angst a little, though, okay?  You don’t always know.  Even when you think you do.

Old habits die hard.

Nick Fairley’s in the news.

Former NFL defensive tackle Nick Fairley was booked into Mobile County Metro Jail on Friday afternoon after being charged with two counts of menacing.

According to the Mobile County Sheriff’s Office’s jail log, the former Auburn standout entered jail at 4:48 p.m. CST Friday.

Arrested for menacing, hunh?  That’s a shame.  And no Second Chance U to fall back on.

“In an ideal world, we wouldn’t limit college athlete compensation at all.”

Okay, we’re far from that, but this proposal, from a regent at the University of Minnesota, no less, is a pretty reasonable bridge the gap idea.

… I believe that if the NCAA wants to continue mandating amateurism while asserting that competitive equity is at stake, then it should allow the total compensation received by athletes at any school within a conference to be equal to the highest-value full ride within the same conference. Better still, the NCAA could permit total allowable compensation for every athlete in the nation to equal that of whichever school is the most expensive in a given year. (Northwestern’s full ride was the most expensive among all Division I schools in 2017-2018.) Either way, it sets a benchmark that reflects the current economic realities of college and short-circuits both the overt bidding wars that the NCAA professes to fear and the secret ones that it pretends not to know about.

Schools are already paying out COA stipends, so there’s nothing there that runs afoul of current NCAA rules and regs.  It’s just a massive equalization of the payout.  Simple, yet elegant.

He’s flexible about how the shell the money out, too.

The easiest method would be via cash payments—just increase the size of the cost of living stipends that athletes already receive and have the NCAA and its member schools declare that hunky-dory under the ever-shifting definition of amateurism. If they find that objectionable, they could always equalize compensation in other ways. How about tuition for graduate education? Or, if education really is as important as the NCAA claims, by placing deferred compensation into trust funds that athletes could access following graduation or upon the completion of a minimum number of credit hours.

Worth an honest debate, if such a thing is possible, anyway.

Saturday morning buffet

Today, the chafing dishes are chock full of nothing but SECCG goodness.

• Matt Hinton’s deep dive into the game is definitely worth a read, albeit a somewhat depressing one if you’re a Dawg fan.  He went into it looking for another close game like the national championship, but came out in the end with this:  Alabama wins, 36–24.
• Marcus Spears thinks Georgia can run the ball, which would be big, but wants you to know he’s not saying that to blow smoke up our asses: “Look, I’m not trying to build this up. I think Alabama is the better team, but with that being said, when scheme, coaching, and all that comes into play, you’re looking at two staffs who really have it figured out.”
• This al.com preview spends a good deal of time elaborating why Alabama outclasses Georgia, but winds up predicting a narrow 36-30 win for the Tide.
• FOTB Mr. McCart had a flash and sees a Georgia win.
• Macondawg ain’t waxing too optimistic in this Q&A at Roll ‘Bama Roll.
• On the flip side, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that the reciprocal Q&A is brimming with confidence.  (Though I’m now admittedly curious about the state of Quinnen Williams’ health.  Also, FWIW, Saban said Terrell Lewis won’t play today.)
• Last but not least, if you’re looking for a long read on the game from a Georgia perspective, here you go.

A sobering thought

For anyone who’s tried to comfort themselves with the thought that last year’s Rose Bowl is proof that Georgia can handle a high-powered offensive attack when the chips are down, this tweet is definitely not for you:

In 2016, Baker Mayfield set college football passer rating and AY/A records at 196.4 and 12.3 AY/A.

In 2017, Mayfield topped that and averaged 198.9 and 12.9 AY/A.

In 2018, Mayfield's replacement, Kyler Murray, has averaged 206.8/13.4 AY/A.

But Tua Tagovailoa is at 212.5/14.2.

— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) December 1, 2018

Also, unlike that Oklahoma team, ‘Bama actually has some guys who can play defense.

Nothing but the best

Just think, eight-team playoff fanboys, with guaranteed slots for all P5 conference champs, the day is not far off when we can eagerly look forward to the likes of a three-loss team (one of those losses to the SEC’s biggest disappointment of the season, mind you) that won its conference title game without scoring an offensive touchdown gracing the CFP with its presence.

I mean, damn, sign me up for some of that sweet action now.

Adventures in hair splitting

RT @CoachHughFreeze: If you have facts about a violation, email compliance@olemiss.edu. If not, please don't slander the young men

— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) February 1, 2013

Truly, is there anything that says Tennessee football more convincingly than worrying more about whether Hugh Freeze is a good fit with Jeremy Pruitt’s coaching philosophy than about how a program and its fan base were more squeamish about hiring a guy with a random third-party account about how he may have heard something bad about another coach’s behavior than a guy who chased hookers and whose recruiting practices  put his school on NCAA probation?

Though for most Vol fans I have to admit that last point is way more a feature than a bug.

The Kirby Smart coaching tree takes root.

And it took less than three seasons.

Sources have indicated to CUSportsNation.com and Rivals.com that Georgia defensive coordinator Mel Tucker will become Colorado’s next head coach, barring any unforeseen circumstances.

Tucker’s name picked up steam as this week continued, and CUSportsNation.com reported on Friday morning that Tucker had already interviewed for the CU opening. Tucker is coaching the Bulldogs against No. 1 Alabama in the SEC Championship game on Saturday, and we expect Colorado to make the news official in the next 24-48 hours.

I will be curious to see where Tucker’s replacement comes from.  Does Kirby promote from within, or is there someone outside he prefers?

In any event, congrats to Mel Tucker, who’s certainly earned his shot.

**********************************************************************

UPDATE:  Not so fast, my friend.

#CU AD says in a statement that he has not offered the head coaching position to anyone at this point; he is still in the discussion and evaluation stages and won’t make a decision on a final candidate until early next week.

— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) December 1, 2018