While we ‘uns are on the subject, if in the back of your mind you question the optimism shown by some projecting Gator prowess this season, allow this SI.com piece to calm you.
How could Florida fall short of nine wins in 2019? Let me count the ways.
- Luck. “Let’s examine last year a little closer. Florida went 3-0 in games decided by one score, and that’s not including a 37-27 win over Vanderbilt in which the Gators trailed 21-3 in the second quarter and Vandy star tailback Ke’Shawn Vaughn left due to injury in the first half. Florida had the seventh-best turnover margin in the country (+12), however that was aided by recovering an insane 75% of opponent’s fumbles. That’s the big reason why Bill Connelly’s expected turnover margin for the Gators was 5.2, so definitely expect regression in that department this season. Additionally, all of those takeaways were a major help to the offense, as the Gators ranked sixth in average starting field position.”
- You know who be gone. “Florida returns a good amount of production on both sides of the ball, but the one position that features huge turnover is the offensive line. The Gators have to replace four offensive linemen that racked up a whopping 141 starts. Those four (Martez Ivey, Jawaan Taylor, Tyler Jordan and Fred Johnson) started a combined 51 games last season.”
- Felipe Franks loves a challenge. “When Franks was pressured, though, positive developments rarely happened. He completed 25.3% of his throws (which was dead-last among qualified Power 5 quarterbacks) and had a 62.3 passer rating (53 out of 64), per ESPN’s David Hale. Breaking in four new starters along the offensive line will open things up for opposing pass rushers.”
- Third and Grantham. “But with Grantham loving to dial up blitzes often, that made Florida’s defense vulnerable to explosive plays (68th in IsoPPP in 2018) and third-down conversions (53rd). The Gators will be a force on defense, but ultimately one of the best ways to become elite is to limit big plays. Under Grantham, defenses tend to be more “boom or bust,” as Florida’s defense made big plays, but also surrendered them (tied for 51st in plays allowed for at least 40 yards).”
Sure, you can’t expect all of those problems to kick in — not that I would complain if they did — but as conclusions go, “The Gators would likely need Franks to play like a borderline Heisman candidate, and I don’t think he has that in him when being protected by a revamped offensive line” is certainly one we should be able to live with.
Get The Picture 
All of this is exactly why I would be selling the Jorts this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Miami, Auburn and LSU get them before we wear them out.
LikeLike
FTMFs.
LikeLiked by 1 person
The FU-Miami game will tell a lot. If FU loses that one look for them to be fighting to get bowl eligible.
LikeLike
I don’t gamble on sports but that 3.5 point line is begging me to change that.
LikeLike
Same.
LikeLike
Left out is that they are ‘thin’ everywhere. The expected depth through the recruiting class fell apart – especially in the secondary. There are also rumors of ‘big time’ title IX issues and at least first game suspensions for several players. UF will need for that turn over rate to remain high, to avoid injuries, and for they QB to play at a level that he so far has not come close to. I like UGA’S changes..
LikeLiked by 2 people
With UF’s OL issues, I really don’t see how they beat both Auburn and LSU. Likely neither. Both of those teams are deep and nasty at DL. Franks will have to survive some extremely physical games at the LOS and make plays with his feet.
LikeLiked by 1 person
And Mizzou’s QB scrambles well, so they should be included among those teams capable of beating FU, plus, a scrambling QB can give any team fits including UGA. .
LikeLike
Mizzou will hang another 50 on them this year. And I will laugh.
LikeLike
He didn’t scramble that well the last time he faced an elite SEC defense. I think Mizz’s fortunes will mostly be determined by whether they can get up for games without post-season eligibility. But I agree they are plenty good enough to continue their ownership over UF.
LikeLike
With UF’s OL issues, I really don’t see how they beat both Auburn and LSU. Likely neither. Both of those teams are deep and nasty at DL. Franks will have to survive some extremely physical games at the LOS and make plays with his feet.
LikeLike
We will crush them.
LikeLike
They open with two gimmes and three games where I’d consider them TD favorites. If they can navigate those and stabilize the offensive line, maybe they can go 9-3 again. However, the season can go south quick if their offensive is a little worse than you’d expect or they suffer any injuries on defense. They’re basically the same team as a year ago, a ceiling of 9-3 and a likely floor of 6-6.
LikeLike
Already have 500 on it. 4.5 though.
LikeLike
Already have 500 on it at 4.5
LikeLike
I’m tempted to add a comma to that….
LikeLike
UF seems to be this season’s SCu. They are the fashionable pick to win a lot of games. Turnovers and blind luck tend to even out over seasons. In 2017, the chickens won 9 games by riding a ridiculous number of turnovers. In 2018, when the turnover magic vanished, they went back to 7-6. I won’t be surprised to see the same thing happen to the turds this season.
LikeLike
Hence why I have Mizzou finishing 2nd in the conference. (I think UF finishes 3rd)
LikeLike
Strange as it sounds, I would trust Guarantano’s ability to create under pressure than I would Franks or Fields.
LikeLike
What’s the over/under on when Grantham bails for another gig? Or do we want to bet on whether he bails or just uses another job offer as leverage for a big raise?
LikeLike
I actually think he’s gone after next year. This team has 8-4 regular season written all over it, and his seat is gonna get the hottest because Floriduh ‘turds still love them some Sideshow Dan the Clown.
When we beat them down for the fourth year in a row with a 5’7” walk-on, D’Wan Mathis, or a true freshman at QB, that’ll be all she wrote for Third and Grantham.
LikeLike
Truth is, fu just isn’t that good a program any more. They SHOULD be lumped in with the Kentuck and scu also-rans. Like Bentley and scu last year, Franks and fu are being overrated by most pundits. Glad to see SI isn’t drinking the Kool-aid.
LikeLike
Floriduh fans sure are uppity around the interwebs. They take after their coach, Sideshow Dan the Clown. They downplay everything that’s said here. They honestly believe their coach, who has this overrated image in the media as someone who coaches-up and wins with lesser talent, is going to not only beat the Dawgs this year, but win the East and challenge for a playoff spot.
Look at Sideshow Dan’s abysmal SEC and Top-25 records. It shows you that his media hype doesn’t match reality. He wins the games he’s supposed to win, and almost always loses the games he’s supposed to lose. No more. No less. What he did at MSU with the talent he had was really not all that special. He just elevated that underachieving program to the middle where they were always supposed to be.
When we kirbstomp their asses for a third time in a row, giving us our first winning decade since 1989, it’s going to be the sweetest thing in a long time.
Fuck those mothefuckers!!!
LikeLike
The decade thing is ….wow
LikeLike
Yep, the legit had two decades in a row of owning us, but we also had the two decades previous of that owning them. So…
LikeLike
Gators and Miami open fall football camp today.
Season opener is now less than a month away.
LikeLike
The flag for the UF should be a pair of.blue Jean shorts with holes in them cut of so short that the pockets hang out. It is so funny you only see those shorts in North Florida never in S. FLA.
LikeLike
Im ok with daisy dukes
LikeLiked by 1 person
So I am in the middle of the Glory UGA Podcast (lower quality, but high quality stat break downs, etc) on their ‘Scouting The Enemy’ series of Florida. In addition to who left on the O-Line, he mentions that the returning O-Line average ranking was very low (can’t totally recall the stat). In addition, they mention while they return 8 starters on D, that the three most impactful of their starters last year are gone, Polite, Gardner, and an ILB who I can’t recall. If the cookie crumbles the wrong way the first part of the season, the Gators could have given up on SSD by the time we play them.
Also if you’re interested:
https://gloryugapodcast.podbean.com/
LikeLike
They lose 3-4 I think. UGA, LSU, and one or both of Mizz/Aub. The offensive line guys have been there and the S&C program is better according to the players and fans compared to Sharkhumpers. Depth is a real concern in a couple of places. D will still give up the explosive play but I watched how they played LSU last year and Grantham dialed back the blitzes in the second half and played coverage more while only rushing 3 and it worked.
The great news is by 2020 they are REALLY going to be in trouble with SEC quality players and difference makers. Dans MO is to redshirt and bring in more JUCO’s to get depth and he hasn’t had enough time to build it like that yet. Grantham is gone after this year I think, the d-line will be depleted and the DB depth took a beating with attrition.
Oh yeah #ftmf
LikeLike
I see 3 sure wins on their schedule…I hope they go 0-12.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Great stuff to kickoff my weekend.
LikeLike
Since nobody has Munsoned, I just watched 2/3 of last year’s game. If not for Feleipe’s Frank-ups, they might have won. In any case they played us well for 2/3 except for 13.
LikeLiked by 1 person
And if my Aunt had a penis she’d be my uncle. If not for some bad calls, we may have at least one Natty, but we lost….that’s all people remember. I do see your point though, and I expect them to play us tough no matter what.
LikeLike
Yep, they totally had the lead for 3 minutes with only 25 minutes left in the game. They barely lost by three scores.
LikeLike
Another game on UF’s schedule that seems overlooked is SC. That game will be at SC, and those teams are not far apart roster-wise. SC will be very hungry in that game since bowl eligibility will be on the line.
LikeLike
Good observation. I hope SC takes them to the woodshed.
LikeLiked by 1 person