On the edge

Jake Rowe compares position groups for tomorrow’s game and doesn’t find a single one where Auburn has the advantage.  Final tally:  Georgia 5, Push 4.  Now that doesn’t fully paint the picture, as it’s a comparison of units as opposed to how the teams will actually face off, but, still, it adds up to a talent advantage for the visitors.

Looking at that, I’ve got two questions about Auburn’s game plan tomorrow.  One is on offense, where Harsin knows what he’s up against, but still wants to test Georgia’s run defense.

“You’re going to have to win some of those one-on-one matchups,” Harsin said. “They do have very good depth, they’re very good up front. You still have to scheme for that, so you just can’t give up on that because they have good players, and they have depth. You’re going to scheme, you’re going to have a plan and then you’re going to work on the things that you have to do that week in order to make that play or that plan you have with your offense successful.”

“Everybody wants to try to run the football, and so you still want to be able to run it,” Harsin said. “You’ve got to be able to handle those guys up front. We’ve got to do a great job at O-line, tight ends being able to get up to those linebackers as well so you can run it. So that just in itself is a challenge.”

Run the damned ball, Bobo.  Seriously, I get why Harsin’s saying that.  Auburn’s basically averaging about the same yardage per run play as it is per pass attempt.  He can’t just abandon that.  (Of course, that’s the same thinking Sam Pittman had the week before, and look where that got him.)

On defense, Derek Mason’s got a choice.  Does he sit back in coverage and make Georgia nibble down the field, or does he challenge the Dawgs’ offensive line, play man coverage and make Stetson Bennett beat him over the top?  It’s a pick your poison scenario.  Arkansas tried the former and Monken took the run all game long.  UAB went the latter route and Bennett had a career game.

My personal feeling is that, given the talent disadvantage, Harsin knows he’s got to gamble and force the action somewhat, so I expect Auburn to be more aggressive on defense than Arky was.  I do think he wants some traction from his running game, but even on offense, I expect he’ll want to take his share of shots and trick plays.

65 Comments

Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football, Strategery And Mechanics

65 responses to “On the edge

  1. jcdawg83

    One thing Georgia can count on; if the run game is working, Bobo will go away from it and start throwing on every down.

    Liked by 8 people

    • moe pritchett

      Bobo was a decent OC for us I always thought.
      But I do agree with your assessment somewhat;
      He will only abandon the run if Bigsby is in the backfield and he has a third and goal from the three…..

      Liked by 5 people

      • godawgs1701

        Once he changed up his philosophy a little in 2011, he became a good or great offensive coordinator. His last few years in Athens, he was a scoring machine. The Bobo memes are all about his early years running the offense… and also the inexplicable brain farts that still happened.

        Liked by 2 people

        • jcdawg83

          I refer you to the South Carolina game in 2014. Specifically, first and goal on the SC 4 yd line with Todd Gurley in the backfield with under five minutes to play. I rest my case.

          Liked by 1 person

          • 79dawg

            Defining a guy’s career, based on a single play call, is D-U-M dumb (particularly when it was the quarterback’s brain fart, and an even bigger screw up by the referee, that was really responsible for that tale of woe….). You may also forget we scored 35 points that day….
            Bobo was an excellent quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator
            PERIOD

            Liked by 10 people

            • jcdawg83

              “The refs screwed us!”, second to “IF ONLY!” as the battle cry of Georgia fans who look wistfully to the days of the previous regime. If the qb had simply handed the ball to the best running back in college football at the time the opportunity for the qb to be put in a position of having to throw the ball away would not have existed. Bobo feasted on weak opponents when he had superior talent, that is how he put up such impressive numbers. That 2014 South Carolina team would not have been bowl eligible if not for winning against us, they were not a good team. Bobo managed 35 points against a bad team when he had far superior talent, great coaching.

              Like

              • Migraine Boy

                “If the qb had simply handed the ball to the best running back in college football at the time ”

                GENIUS! NO ONE would have expected that; least of all the ENTIRE FUCKING CAROLINA DEFENSE!

                Liked by 2 people

                • jcdawg83

                  I guess Gurley should have gotten no carries in the game at all since the defense knew he would be getting carries? I’ll let you in on a little secret; we had 9 other players on offense besides the qb and Gurley to block the defense.

                  Like

                • Migraine Boy

                  Yes, there’s no difference between Gurley getting a carry on the 40 yard line with 60 yards of field to play with vs the 3 yard line. None at all

                  Like

            • Migraine Boy

              THANK YOU

              Damn I get tired of this one call being the sum total of Bobo’s time in Athens to everyone. It’s lazy af. It’d be like all anyone remembering of Kirby is the SECC fake punt call.

              I always think it’s an entirely defensible call, too.

              Liked by 2 people

          • godawgs1701

            That would be the main brain fart I was referring to, my friend.

            Like

      • Harold Miller

        Or Todd Gurley for that matter.

        Like

    • W Cobb Dawg

      As far as trickeration, I’m expecting Bobo to run a reverse (usually at a lousy time), and that play where the QB hides the ball then throws long.

      If they have a small RB, we can expect to see him run up the middle on 3rd and long.

      Like

  2. practicaldawg

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see a package or two from the other QB that saved the GA State game as well

    Like

  3. biggusrickus

    For Auburn on defense, they’d be a lot better off forcing Georgia to nickel and dime their way down the field if they can. Turnovers and negative plays have a lot more impact when you don’t give up anything explosive. I don’t see how Auburn can score, though, so it would probably only serve to keep points down.

    Liked by 1 person

    • stoopnagle

      This is what I think: one has to believe (or do we?) Auburn has better defensive talent than UAB for starters, then it only makes sense to try to make “the backup” quarterback be patient and work down the field. They’ve been reasonably good against the run so far…

      Liked by 2 people

      • biggusrickus

        They have to at least be faster at the second and third levels than UAB. I do think they have a decent defensive line, but it’s not as good as Auburn’s DLines have tended to be over the years. Honestly, I don’t see a path for Auburn to win, and the only one way it stays close is if Georgia turns the ball over. They also have a similar problem that Arkansas had, in that they’re coming off a big emotional game. They’re at home, which will help them a little, but the odds of them being able to get jacked up again don’t seem very high.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Munsoning

          Great point, biggus. I’m hoping the Barners are their typical cocky selves after beating LSU at home. Will make tomorrow’s beatdown all the more enjoyable. I hope they sell out to stop the run and the Dawgs get in 12 personnel (yeah, I’m pretending like I know Xs and Os) and run it down their throats.

          Like

        • I wonder if there anyone has done a statistical analysis of the “big game hangover” trope.

          People love to talk about it, commentators love to use it as a story point… but I’d love to see numbers that indicate a true psychological fall-off after a big win or big loss.

          The physical wear and tear of a slobberknocker of a contest? I can see that… but the whole “man, I was really excited last week… don’t know that I can get that excited again this week” thing is, IMO, a little silly on its face.

          Willing to be shown numbers, tho. Requesting it, even.

          Like

          • biggusrickus

            A google search only netted me one result that only looked at above .500 teams playing below .500 teams in the NFL. It only looked at the straight up win-loss record and not the expected vs. actual outcome, or even something as imperfect as whether or not the above .500 team covered the spread. The above .500 team won at a slightly higher than usual clip, but I think the analysis for what I found was way too simplistic. I would be interested in seeing a true analysis of the phenomenon.

            I’ve seen enough teams come out flat after a big win that I take it for granted, but it could be a myth. Who knows?

            Like

  4. godawgs1701

    I’ll be shocked if Auburn sits back in cloud coverage like Arkansas did and lets Georgia nibble in the passing game and run the ball all day. In a hostile environment like Jordan-Hare will be Saturday, I’d put it all on the backup quarterback to beat me and if he can throw over the top of my defense while I pressure him and stack up against the run, I tip my cap.

    Stetson’s going to have to make some plays on Saturday. I believe that he will. Just hope he’s still got the confidence to let ‘er rip. I felt like he started to hesitate on the trigger after he threw that horrible ball into triple coverage that should have been picked last week. Our defense will travel so I don’t think Stet’s gonna have to score 35, but he’s gonna have to score 24 or more.

    Liked by 6 people

  5. Dawg93

    I firmly believe Auburn will make stopping the run their #1 priority and force Bennett to beat us with his arm, knowing he’s going to look downfield more and not take the short dump-off passes available to him. They know they have to get a few turnovers and that he can/will throw some picks if their coverage is good. I just can’t see them doing what Arkansas did.

    Liked by 5 people

    • jcdawg83

      I like Stetson but he does have an uncanny ability to throw some horrible passes for no good reason. It seems like once he gets it in his mind that he is throwing deep, nothing he sees can change his mind.

      Like

    • miltondawg

      I fully expect Auburn to play to stop the run. Their front seven isn’t what Georgia’s is, but they have the only teammates in college that have graded over 90 in run defense all year (their nose tackle and inside LB). And their other two defensive linemen grade out very well. As I said, they’re not Georgia, and their stats are bolstered by their first two opponents of the season, but I get the feeling that they want to clamp down on the run like they did against LSU (1.3 yards per attempt) and Penn State (2.5 yards per attempt).

      Liked by 3 people

  6. Biggen

    I agree with some others that I think Auburn will sell out to stop the run. Opposing teams never seem to learn that we have a passing attack now even with Bennett. They will load the box and dare Monken to call passing plays which I believe he will wholeheartedly.

    As far as AU offense is concerned, there is no magical scheme that will be able to constantly move the ball on the ground against our front 7 with their players. They just don’t have the horses. Nix will scramble and run a bit and I’d guess he will have his share of rushing yards by the time the game is over. But his scrambles will be out of necessity because the pass rush will be in his face and back field most of the game. That should make any throws he attempts out of the “Nix Experience” ripe for INTs.

    I’d look for some trick plays on their part to try and keep the crowd in it. Fake FGs, double passes, etc… They have nothing to loose.

    Liked by 7 people

    • 79dawg

      Haven’t seen a good old double reverse pass in awhile….

      Liked by 1 person

    • Down Island Way

      Your point about the prettiest little cesspool being sellouts is very real and true…hoops coach guilty of bribery, softball coach fired (did the barners attempt to do a baylor), scam newton, 2011 breaking/entering/theft by football players and we could go on (2011 team was out of control with law enforcement)..#AUBURN SUCKS!…

      Liked by 1 person

  7. moe pritchett

    My .02$
    Auburns offense can’t sustain a long drive on this defense. Defensively I’m going to guess Lanning will dial it up to about 85% power…..not sure we’ve seen 85% yet.
    Unless we give the wartigeragleplainsmen a short field I don’t see them scoring. Maybe Bobo Nix gets a lucky pass off deep but I kind of doubt it…. This winds up a 28-0 game or maybe 28-7 if SBIV chunks a Pik6 ala UAB, but SBIV will be solid I think. Stetson may finish the game with 250+ passing 2TD 1 Int while Zeus, Milton Cook & Associates 200+ rushing.
    It may not be an offensive clinic but Im guessing clean.

    This information is intended for entertainment purposes only and not intended as educational in any way, either verbally or written. Any likenesses found herein isn’t intentional is purely coincidental.
    Approximate monetary value: $2.59

    Liked by 6 people

  8. ASEF

    4 push, huh? Seems charitable for AU.

    Stetson had a good start at Alabama, and then…. I suspect Kirby will get a nice lead and then sit on it. Second half is going to be a punting competition.

    Like

  9. RangerRuss

    I was beginning to worry about this game based on Kirby’s statement of the crowd noise causing issues when the Dawgs were on offense and the fiasco that was 2017 at JH. Then I remembered that this Auburn team struggled against Ga State.
    Oh, and there’s that D that should make up for any mishaps that the O incurs. That should quiet the crowd of hateful assholes in JH. Got to keep SBIV upright and uniform clean.
    I’ll quote my ol Junkyard Dog buddy Mr Tom, “I’ve been sizing these motherfuckers up. We’ve got this.”

    Liked by 5 people

    • miltondawg

      They didn’t just struggle against Georgia State (which averaged 5.5 yards per rushing attempt), they lost that game without an egregious officiating call at the end.

      Liked by 2 people

  10. silverbritches02

    I mean, I get wanting to get OLs to the 2nd level. It’s just not that easy with Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, et al. eating up blocks.

    Liked by 1 person

    • moe pritchett

      99 is taking up two. Period. D Wyatt and Carter are way to athletic, fast and physical….Anderson may tee off on Bobo Nix. Its almost like it is personal with him.

      Like

  11. charlottedawg

    Two things worry me about this game
    1) it’s at Jordan hare where Auburn is just different. Someone put it best in they said Jordan hare is to Auburn what the Russian winter is to the Russian army. Kirby’s Achilles heel is also sec west road games where he has a 2-4 record with blowout losses to ole miss in 16, auburn 17, LSU 18 and bama last year. That being said historically when we lost to Auburn the last two decades they had a national championship contender (05 being the exception) and this team should have lost to Georgia state. Worry level if 10 is we’re fucked, 1 is no worry, this would be about a 3

    2) stetson and the passing game. Happy that stetson has had a good year so far but the fact remains he still has a penchant for a couple really dumb throws a game and we still only have a skeleton crew at receiver. If Auburn stops the run and stetson throws a couple picks / we can’t move the ball through the air this could get uncomfortable quick. Worry level: 3.5

    Overall I think there’s a reason the point spread is 2 tds plus. I expect nix to be running for his life, unsuccessfully, for as long as harsin keeps him in there. This is still a game we should win easily.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Muttley

      An Auburn QB “running for his life, unsuccessfully”, is the world I want to live in. For the children, Dawgs.

      Like

    • Gaskilldawg

      In the past 30 years we are 9-5-1 at Jordan-Hare Stadium. That means the Russian Winter of Lee County stopped us just 33.3% of the times we played there. Three of the AU teams that beat us were SEC champs. One, the 2004 team, finished 13-0 and claimed it should have been declared national champion. A second, the 2010 team, was 14-0 and beat Oregon for the BCS championship. The third, 2013, lost to FSU in the last minute of the final BCS championship game.
      Of the other two Auburn teams able to beat us at Auburn in the past 30 years, both were SEC West champions. Auburn’s SEC West champion in 2000 beat Jim Donnan’s 8-4 final team in overtime. The other Auburn team to beat us during the Russian winter was Auburn’s 2017 SEC West championship.
      All 5 Auburn teams that have beaten us in Jordan-Hare also beat Alabama.
      So ask yourself, is this Auburn team good enough to win the SEC West and beat Alabama?
      The

      Like

  12. Skeptic Dawg

    I find this game a bit worrisome. Yes, defense travels, but I foresee Auburn throwing caution to wind on offense. Not sure if it will work or not, but they will land a couple three TDs. As for our offense, I have a feeling that we are living on borrowed time with Bennett. I fear that Auburn has enough talent and speed on defense to turn Stetson Bennett into the 3rd string QB.

    Like

    • spur21

      Now I fully understand your handle 🙂

      Liked by 3 people

    • charlottedawg

      If that’s the case then the point spread of 14+ is easy money. Why don’t you put your money where your mouth is? A small bet like a grand should be able to allow you to take the family to a nice mid priced place for dinner like Le bernardin, Daniel or Grammercy tavern. Maybe bachannalia if you want to stay closer to Atlanta.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Muttley

      I accuse this man of caring for Auburn.

      Like

    • My singular concern is SBIV. Great kid, fine story, and decent QB. But with three INTs this game could be too interesting. Without turnovers in the Dawgs’ half of the field, if Aubrun scores 21 points I will eat my hat publicly.

      Like

  13. Tim B

    Clemson showed that UGA’s offense is capable of being stopped. Auburn has some nice pieces on defense and a very good DC. They will also have the home crowd noise which will cause a couple of false starts and possibly confusion on check downs. On the other side of the ball UGA’s defense must benefit from five or six false starts on first down every home game. They won’t get the benefit of having the other guy start at 1st and 15 over and again. Bo Nix’s running around will extend a couple of drive resulting in fewer possessions and longer fields for the offense. The first half might be closer than a lot of folks think.

    Like

  14. Well just don’t read Dawg Twitter unless you want to find all the reasons we don’t have an edge.

    Like

  15. As a team, our QBs have a 172.06 rating — which, if that were one person, would be good enough to rank 10th in the country between Heisman candidate Matt Corral (177.31) and Oregon St. QB Chance Nolan (169.28), who is just ahead of UNC’s Sam Howell.

    Our QB rating against is 78.20. The CFBStats page only lists the top 100 qualifiers, and #100 is Texas State’s Brady McBride with a rating of 118.33.

    Bo Nix is 85th at 127.91. Arkansas’s KJ Jefferson is 21st at 160.61 (before he played UGA, he was at 170.12).

    None of the other QBs UGA has played against are ranked in the top 100…probably, I’d guess in part due to playing against UGA.

    Not that any of this relates to this story, but I found it interesting.

    Like

  16. Auburn’s game plan should be simple. Use misdirection and formations to get more hats on defenders blocking. Sweeps, counters, etc. including running Nix and Finley. Then take a few deep shots on our man coverage. This breaks down in the Red Zone, so I see Auburn moving the ball on a few drives, but not scoring much.

    Bennett is getting better with playing time. Past mistakes are increasingly less likely to occur, especially since he’s getting first team reps this week. Agree with most on here that Mason has to dare us to throw deep. I think we do. Dawgs cover, take the under.

    Liked by 1 person

  17. I expect Auburn to do everything they can to put the game in SB’s hands and try and force turnovers. Our current OL and blocking scheme don’t seem nearly as good at run blocking as ones of the past. Stuff the run and get hands on the air on passes and put it on SB.

    Maybe we’ll have early success running but I kinda hope we start out trying to mix it up. Getting the run game shut down early is a sure way to give them early momentum.

    Like

  18. uga97

    Tindall spy on nix. Checkmate

    Liked by 1 person

  19. 69Dawg

    I know you think I’m a paid guy but if you want to see film breakdown of Auburn v Penn State go to Brooks Austin on Youtube. It’s free and it will open your eyes to what Bobo has had to do to cover for the offensive line. Motion, motion and more motion is his answer. Mason’s defense is pretty vanilla but has good players. Brook knows his stuff and it’s 1 hour of explanations. Half breaking down the Auburn Defense and then the Offense. If you want to know what Auburn is doing at the snap check him out.

    Like

  20. Ozam

    Don’t underestimate the crowd impact. Besides having 90,000 rabid fans, AU pumps in electronic noise (not sure why we don’t use same tactic). Most of our team has not faced a hostile environment. Getting a fast start and taking out the crowd is critical!

    Like

  21. californiadawg

    Fuck these motherfuckers with an oil rig.

    That’s all I got.

    Liked by 1 person

  22. archiecreek

    Two words,
    Two simple words….
    Travon
    Walker
    That DAWG is gonna hunt!!!

    Liked by 1 person