Daily Archives: October 9, 2021

Your game day post, War Eagling edition

I’ll be on the road to the game by the time you read this and at the time I composed this, I hadn’t heard a final decision made on who will start at quarterback for Georgia today.

Either way, I’m not concerned about how the defense plays.  Auburn comes in about like Arkansas did last week, and while I’m not predicting a third consecutive shut out — not that I wouldn’t take it! — I simply don’t see Mike Bobo dialing up a game plan that results in more than a couple of touchdowns at best.  The main reason I’m willing to consider the possibility that Auburn’s offense crosses the goal line a couple of times is that Bo Nix has been a much better quarterback at home than on the road.  This season’s passer rating split is 157.24/104.03.  (And, yes, I realize some of that can be chalked up to home cupcake games; still, the dude is more comfortable when a road crowd isn’t screaming at him.)

But that’s all they got and I don’t see 14 points being enough to win today, regardless of whom Georgia starts at quarterback.  Especially if some of that comes in garbage time, which occurrence is a distinct possibility.

I suspect Bennett gets the start unless it turns out that Daniels is in the vicinity of 100% healthy.  I suspect Derek Mason will try to make Bennett beat the Auburn defense by challenging Georgia’s line of scrimmage in an attempt to shut down the running game.  I also suspect Monken will do what he can to make Mason regret that choice; it’ll be up to Bennett to execute Monken’s play calls.  If he does, here comes garbage time.

Even so, I feel like Matt Hinton’s got this right.

Bennett is more than capable of getting the job done in relief, but he’s much less likely to hang an extra touchdown or two on the board if UGA is playing for an old-school choke-out.

As far a the bottom line is concerned, speculating over Georgia’s offense in any regular-season game is likely academic. Eventually, the Dogs will need Daniels and a full complement of weapons to make good on their potential in December and January. Until then, the defense has the situation under control.

My gut tells me that Georgia, pulling in the reins on offense in the second half, just misses covering the 16.5-point spread.  If the defense goes otherworldly again, though, forget what I just said.

Consider this your game day thread invitation in the comments.  I’ll see you guys on the other side.



Filed under Georgia Football

Your (non-Dawg) game day post

Today’s menu:

It’s a regular smorgasbord:  the Red River Shootout at noon, along with the battle of the SEC West teams that got smoked last week, followed by Penn State-Iowa at four (take the under), wrapping up with night games at Kentucky and TAMU.

What are you looking for today?


Filed under College Football

This is how you D.

Matt Hinton, on Georgia’s (so far) special defensive season:

Available Yards is a simple statistic tracked by efficiency guru Brian Fremeau that compares yards gained/allowed on a given possession (including penalties) against the total number of yards available on that possession. For example, if an offense takes over at its own 20-yard line and drives 80 yards for a touchdown, it’s accounted for 100% of the available yards; if it gains 40 yards it’s accounted for 50%, etc. (The average for the current season is just below 50%.) Added up over the course of a game or a season, it can another layer of context to the conventional box-score stats, which in Georgia’s case means one more layer of consistent domination:

You get the idea: This defense is special, and not just adjusting for inflation in an era when offensive production is on the rise. Just straight-up special in any era.

Yeah, but Georgia ain’t played anyone, Matt.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Still got it, by Gawd.

Third-and-Grantham, that is.

The Gators are currently 9th in the SEC allowing teams to succeed 35.94% of the time over the first five games of the season. That number is actually better than the 2020 season ending number of 41.07% success rate on third downs by opposing offenses, but 2020 was a different year for college defenses and in the SEC in particular. With a schedule of all SEC teams, things are going to be tougher anyway, but there seemed to be something different last year anyway where teams were just giving up more defensively.

It also should be noted that this past weekend and in the loss to Kentucky, Florida had the best third down number they have had all year. Florida only allowed the Wildcats to complete one third down conversion and they didn’t get that done until the fourth quarter as Kentucky finished 1-for-9 in the category.

With five more SEC teams still left on the docket this year and a very young secondary still trying to earn their keep, it would stand to reason that third down conversions may not improve.

In retrospect, the best thing about that Kentucky loss may have been that it wasn’t Grantham’s fault.


Filed under Gators, Gators...

Of all the quarterbacks Georgia’s faced, he’s certainly one of them.

Talk about damning with faint praise:

Bo Nix may be the best quarterback No. 2 Georgia faces this season. That’s no slight to No. 19 Auburn’s signal caller, who has endured an infamous roller-meet-coaster career. It’s almost an indictment of the game in 2021.

Dodd does highlight one surprising stat — Nix is one of two SEC quarterbacks yet to throw an interception this season.  Considering the amount of freelancing he does, that’s almost miraculous.


Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football

Rise and shine, Dawgnation

Today’s theme music:


Filed under Georgia Football

Hope floats.

If you’re a Gator, hope is all you got.


Filed under Gators, Gators..., Georgia Football