Jake Rowe compares the position groups for tomorrow’s game.  His score:  Georgia 7, Auburn 2, Push 1.  As a surface look, that’s fine, but Nathan digs a little deeper.

So, when UGA’s offense is on the field, in the 25 statistics I track, they are “tied” with Auburn’s defense at 12 – 12 – 1 in terms of which team is higher ranked in each category. That seems pretty even, but a deeper examination tips things slightly in the Tiger’s favor. In categories in which UGA outranks Auburn, they are, average, 13 ranks above the Plainsmen. In categories where Auburn has the advantage, the Dawgs average 22 ranks lower than their opponent. To put that in a more concise way: the advantages the Auburn D has are bigger than the advantages the UGA offense has.

When Auburn is holding the ball, this exercise yields a much different result. The Dawg’s defense has consistently outperformed the Tiger’s D: they outrank the Tigers in 24 of 25 statistical categories. The average ranking differential between these two units is also stark. The only statistical advantage the orange and blue have on offense is their ability to prevent havoc, where they are ranked 24 in the nation, far outstripping the Dawgs 74th ranked havoc rate. However, in the other 24 categories, UGA’s defense is out-performing the Auburn offense by an average of 44 ranks. The biggest statistical advantage to UGA here is in defending the explosive pass, where UGA is ranked 4th in the nation, and is facing the 114th most explosive passing attack in the country. It’s not just that UGA’s D has done a better job this year than Auburn’s O; it’s that, statistically, these two units aren’t even in the same zip-code.

Barring a rash of turnovers, I’ll be surprised if either team cracks 21 points tomorrow.



Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football

22 responses to “Edgy

  1. chopdawg

    Agreed. Hard to see anything but a low-scoring game. I think we need to throw to set up the run tomorrow, maybe #5 finally makes some catches.


  2. MDDawg

    I’m gonna go way out on a limb here and say it’s 20-10 UGA. And that’s not 2 TDs and 2 FGs for the Dawgs, it’s 4 FGs, 1 TD, and a 2-point conversion.


  3. Biggus Rickus

    If anyone’s going to, without turnovers, it will be Georgia. But yeah, this looks like a 20-13 game.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. bcdawg97

    The way UGA has played this season combined with it just being the Barn at their house, I’ll honestly not be surprised by any outcome of this game whether a blowout/close win for either team. All I know is that I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue…


  5. Faltering Memory

    I’d say that all that mental masturbation in the above quote won’t mean much at 3:30 PM Eastern, 2:30 PM Central tomorrow.


  6. CB

    Good to see comparisons between offenses and defenses that are actually on the field together as opposed to the typical position group comparisons.


  7. Paul

    Could we be headed for another 3-2 type game? All defense. No offense. Lots of punting. I doubt either team holds the other to that few points. But 10-7? 13-10?


  8. Charlottedawg

    I think what’s being overlooked is that Georgia has a coordinator that just absolutely shuts down offenses. Puts them in unfavorable matchups and makes them one dimensional and predictable, unfortunately that coordinator is James Coley.


    • Russ

      It’s funny because it’s true. It also hurts because it’s true.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Uglydawg

      You set that up perfectly to make me spew my coffee.
      Well played!


    • PTC DAWG

      You have given us no hope in many games this season…keep up the good work.


      • Charlottedawg

        I actually thought we’d beat Florida and I think we win tomorrow. I just think it’ll be in spite of our offensive capabilities not because of it.


        • Macallanlover

          I cannot disagree with this, we seem to have minimized our offensive talent. I understand the inexperienced receivers being a factor on select plays but that much speed, and decent hands, should not be shut down for entire stretches of the game, and certainly not for all of it.

          That said, things are not quite as bleak as some, including you, have made them out to be. I share your concern about the OC, and did when we made an inside hire, so your comments seem more grounded than those who continually surface to attack players because of some agenda.

          The lack of finishing drives is frustrating, especially because much of it is self inflicted with penalties, wasted dive plays, dropped passes, missed open receivers, etc. But even against SC the offense put up over 400 yards and dominated the game before being brought down by turnovers and a missed kick. This isn’t a broken offense, it is one that seems to not be clicking on more than 5-6 of its 8 cylinders. Without a bad turnover ratio tomorrow we should have enough in the tank to win. That may not be true against an explosive offense that we might have to outscore in a shootout.


  9. I think I will be surprised if NEITHER team scores more than 21 points. I think it will be more like the last three meetings, with the winning team scoring at least 27 points and winning by at least two TDs.

    That being said, UGA won each of the last four meetings in which neither team scored 21 points. And three of those for wins were at Auburn.


  10. Uglydawg

    Two thoughts.
    1. Georgia has elite talent on both sides of the ball. This team would be unbeatable if both sides were as finished as the defense. Doesn’t matter what I think, but I think it could have been and still might be.
    Consider that CKS has called off the offense late in games where he is well ahead…won’t go for those style points. Yet he puts his starters back in on defense if the opposing team threatens a score. That’s telling of a double standard that might be unintended or might be by design. With the first action, he’s showing some mercy and respect to the other team. With the second he’s saying, “we’re still here and we don’t quit”.
    2. To counter that negativity..(and if we win 2 to zip, I’ll take it )
    JF is alluding to the fact that the offense IS about to “break it out” and “it’s going to be fun to watch!”.
    And since QBJF knows a hell of a lot more about this team than I do, I believe him. (A “break out” against AU might be three scores, however).
    Anyway, I sure hope it’s tomorrow. I actually half-way expect a pleasant surprise.
    Seeing will be believing.
    Take your raincoats to the game, Georgia fans. The sprinkler system is charged and the classless goobers at JH have their finger on the button.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Biggus Rickus

      They were close the last couple of games to breaking out offensively. It’s just that breaking out against this Auburn defense on the road seems unlikely. Unless you consider 27 points breaking out in this context.


  11. spur21

    We will score at least 20 – I have no idea how many the turds will put up.


  12. Kdawg

    19-17 UGA