The other side’s third down

Yesterday, I showed you what JT Daniels has done on third down so far this year.  Here’s the story for KJ Jefferson (it’s the battle of two-initial quarterbacks!).

#Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson

Of his 88 total drop-backs, # on 3rd down:
– 25
– 60.9 passing grade

3rd & 7+ Dbs:
– 19
– 55.3 passing grade

Betting he's in that situation more than he's used to this weekend#UGAvsArkansas

— Brent Rollins (@BrentRollinsPhD) September 30, 2021

Looking at his situational stats, he’s not that hot on second down, either, with a passer rating of 72.68.  But he is friggin’ dynamite on first down:  25-33, 572 yards, 17.33 ypa, 15 first downs, 5 touchdowns, 1 INT.  That all adds up to a 265.30 passer rating.  Well over 40% of his pass attempts come on first down, which tells you that Kendall Briles knows when to dial up what works.  I assume Lanning will devise his game plan accordingly.

Jefferson’s strengths are running the ball and the deep pass.  He’s not particularly accurate in the intermediate passing game, which is indicated in Rollins’ stats.  It’s not going to surprise me in the slightest if the Dawgs play more zone to counter that than we’ve seen and it might be well worth your time to see how much Tykee Smith sees the field, since he played a lot of zone last season at West Virginia.