… and that may be the ugliest 29 and a half point cover I’ve ever seen.
Daily Archives: October 8, 2022
There is only one way to start this post.
I think I pretty much hit the key theme for today’s game: does Georgia’s stellar fourth-quarter performance against Missouri carry over to Auburn? If so, Bryan Harsin may be looking for work this evening. However, if Georgia comes out in a fog for the third straight game, it’s officially time to start worrying about where this team’s head is at.
On top of watching the offensive line play, the thing I will be most keen to see is whether Monken is able to open up a downfield passing game. If Auburn is forced out of aggressively attacking the line of scrimmage because of that, look out, world.
Other than that, let’s try to stay healthy, fellas.
Have at it in the comments, as always.
The pickings seem a little slimmer this week.
Which doesn’t mean the day is devoid of interest. Here’s what I’ll be keeping track of, besides the Dawgs:
- Tennessee at LSU. Have you seen the Vols’ road record against the SEC West over the past decade? It’s ugly.
- TCU at Kansas. Easily the most surprising game of the year so far in 2022.
- Arkansas at Mississippi State. The Hogs’ pass defense against Leach’s offense? Might not be pretty.
- Missouri at Florida. The Tigers have had a little success over the Gators of late.
- Duke at Georgia Tech. A two-game winning streak after firing Coach 404 would be hilarious.
- Texas A&M at Alabama. Drink every time somebody mentions the head coaching fracas.
What’s on your schedule?
Hoo, boy, based on stats, the second half could get damned ugly today.
In Auburn’s last eight games against Power 5 opponents, the Tigers have been outscored 104-21 after halftime; by comparison, Georgia has outscored its last eight Power 5 opponents 158-58 after halftime.
And it may start sooner than that.
There’s a span of time in a football game that is commonly referred to as “the middle eight,” a stretch that consists of the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half. This eight-minute span can often swing football games, as teams try to take advantage and score late in the first half — effectively stealing a possession just before the break — then come out of the gates strong after halftime, especially if the team receives the third quarter’s opening kick.
Earlier this week, The Auburn Observer’s Justin Ferguson did an excellent breakdown of Auburn’s struggles with the middle eight under head coach Bryan Harsin. In Harsin’s 18 games as Tigers head coach, Auburn has been outscored 86-13 in this eight-minute span, including a 42-7 margin during the 2022 season.
If you look at Georgia’s last 18 games — which is the number of games Harsin has coached at Auburn — the Bulldogs’ rate of success in the middle eight is considerably higher.
In roughly one-and-a-half regular seasons’ worth of games, Georgia has outscored opponents 139-33 in the middle eight. This season alone, Georgia has outscored opponents 41-6, which means Georgia has a plus-35 scoring differential in the middle eight in 2022 compared to Auburn’s negative-35.
I guess that means we need to watch which team wins the coin toss.
“If less than 12 percent of your offensive snaps are negative plays, you have about an 85 percent chance of winning,” Kotelnicki said. “That’s turnovers, sacks, stuffed runs, dropped passes, penalties and mental errors. We’ve obviously been really good this year.”
I have no idea if that’s really true, but since he’s having a better season than I am, I’m inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.
I haven’t seen a hype video for this week, so, for now, you’ll have to settle for this.
“We’re excited playing in front of the home crowd and just the fact that it’s Auburn,” senior receiver Kearis Jackson said of Saturday’s game, which will be featured as the CBS SEC game of the week. “Three-thirty, prime time, we know it’s going to be electric. It’s hard not to be excited about it.”
Oh, and this:
That ought to get you in the right mood.
UPDATE: Found it!